June 21 Weekend Wrap

The COT Reporting Period: July 10-July 16

Soybeans:

For the week, August soybeans advanced 61.75 cents, September +27.75, November +16.75. The COT report showed that managed money added 17,776 contracts to their long positions and also added 7,015 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,083 contracts of their long positions and added 10,863 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by a ratio of 3.94:1, which is down from the previous week of 4.20:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 4.24:1.

Soybean meal:

For the week, August soybean meal gained $39.50, September +17.50, December +8.80. The COT report showed that managed money added 4,050 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,185 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 1,837 contracts to their long positions and also added 5,758 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybean meal by a ratio of 2.94:1, which is about the same as the previous week of 2.92:1 and slightly below the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 3.01:1.

Soybean oil:

For the week, August soybean oil lost 72 points, September -70, December -43. The COT report showed that managed money liquidated 193 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,453 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,496 contracts of their long positions and added 1,225 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short soybean oil by a ratio of 1.63:1, which is down slightly from the previous week of 1.69:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.67:1.

Corn:

For the week, September corn lost 1.50 cents, December -8.50. The COT report showed that managed money added 9,032 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 10,526 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 7,558 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,938 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long corn by a ratio of 1.07:1, which is up significantly from the previous week when managed money was short by a ratio of 1.03:1, but below the ratio of 2 weeks ago when managed money was long by a ratio of 1.17:1.

Wheat:

For the week, September wheat lost 16.50 cents, December -18.50. The COT report showed that managed money added 8,782 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 5,671 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 4,604 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 562 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short wheat by a ratio of 1.39:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.61:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.62:1.

Cotton:

For the week, December cotton advanced 1.10 cents. The COT report showed that managed money added 1,685 contracts to their long positions and also added 854 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 646 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,452 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cotton by a ratio of 6.60:1, which is down from the previous week of 7.05:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 7.31:1.

 Live cattle:

For the week, October cattle gained 15 points. The COT report showed that managed money added 522 contracts to their long positions and also added 3,167 contracts to their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,972 contracts to their long positions and also added 1,214 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long cattle by a ratio of 1.86:1, which is down from the previous week of 2.01:1 in about the same as the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.87:1.

Crude oil:

For the week, September crude oil gained $2.32. The COT report showed that managed money added 15,509 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,489 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 2,813 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 5,862 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long crude oil by 11.10:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 9.34:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 9.45:1. Commercial interests are long crude by a ratio of 1.15:1 and have been net long crude oil for a number of months.

Heating oil:

For the week, September heating oil gained 5.98 cents. The COT report showed that managed money added 9,693 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 3,961 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 3,089 contracts to their long positions and also added 16,408 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long heating oil by a ratio of 1.42:1, which is up substantially from the previous week when managed money was short by a ratio of 1.01:1 and the previous week when they were short 1.36:1.

Gasoline:

For the week, September gasoline gained 1.42 cents. The COT report showed that managed money added 12,804 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 6,522 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 3,662 contracts of their long positions and added 6,723 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gasoline by a ratio of 5.00:1, which is almost double the previous week’s ratio of 2.65:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.03:1.

Natural gas:

For the week, August natural gas advanced 14.5 cents. The COT report showed that managed money added 2,345 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 17,022 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 13,783 contracts to their long positions and also added 14,397 contracts to their short positions. As of the most recent report, managed money is short natural gas by a ratio of 1.004:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.02:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.01:1.

Copper:

For the week, September copper lost 1.50 cents. The COT report showed that managed money added 364 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 10,268 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 2,202 contracts of their long positions and added 4,666 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is short copper by a ratio of 1.54:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.93:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.92:1.

Palladium:

For the week, September palladium advanced $26.85. The COT report showed that managed money liquidated 77 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,102 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 154 contracts of their long positions and added 471 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long palladium by a stratospheric 32.55:1, which is up dramatically from the previous week of 11.88:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 10.24:1.

Platinum:

For the week, October platinum gained $24.30. The COT report showed that managed money liquidated 466 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 1,750 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 104 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 64 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long platinum by a ratio of 2.50:1, which is up somewhat from the previous week of 2.23:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.27:1.

Gold:

For the week, August gold gained $15.30. The COT report showed that managed money added 795 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 17,164 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests added 15,178 contracts to their long positions and also added 13,944 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long gold by a ratio of 1.64:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.29:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.26:1.

Silver:

For the week, September silver lost 33.2 cents. The COT report showed that managed money liquidated 32 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 544 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 138 contracts of their long positions and added 1,995 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long by a ratio of 1.19:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.17:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.12:1.

The table below shows the poor performance of gold and silver versus palladium and platinum during price declines and rallies. There are many in the financial press who are claiming that gold has made a bottom. Perhaps so, however gold and silver continue to display dramatic relative strength weakness when compared to palladium and platinum.

Performance June 6-June 26                 Performance June 26-July 19       Year to Date
September palladium   -17.07%                     +11.85%                                                  +5.97%
October platinum         -14.73%                      +5.57%                                                    -7.76%
August gold                   -13.30%                     +1.40%                                                   -23.05%
September silver           -18.13%                      -0.59%                                                   -35.94%

 Canadian dollar:

The September Canadian dollar advanced 25 points. The COT report showed that leveraged funds liquidated 3,517 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 9,016 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short by a ratio of 1.97:1, which is below the previous week’s ratio of 2.04:1 but above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.89:1.

Australian dollar:

For the week, the September Australian dollar gained 1.41 cents. The COT report showed that leveraged funds liquidated 1,658 contracts of their long positions and added 4,988 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short by a ratio of 1.73:1, which is up from the previous week of 1.57:1 and the same as the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.74:1.

Swiss franc:

For the week, the September Swiss franc gained 59 points. The COT report showed that leveraged funds liquidated 1,145 contracts of their long positions and added 1,593 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are long the Swiss franc by a ratio of 1.07:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.31:1 and down substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.21:1.

British pound:

For the week, the September British pound gained 1.59 cents. The COT report showed that leveraged funds liquidated 6,275 contracts of their long positions and added 5,947 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short by a ratio of 2.82:1, which is up substantially from the previous week of 2.04:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.73:1.

Euro:

For the week, the September euro advanced 76 points. The COT report showed that leveraged funds added 130 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 1,908 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the euro by a ratio of 1.59:1, which is down from the previous week of 1.64:1, but up from the ratio of 2 weeks ago when leveraged funds were short by 1.12:1.

Japanese yen:

For the week, the September yen lost 85 points. The COT report showed that leveraged funds liquidated 4,397 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 428 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short the yen by a ratio of 3.48:1, which is up from the previous week of 3.00:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.46:1. The current ratio is among the highest we have seen in at least several weeks.

Dollar index:

For the week, the September dollar index lost 45 points. The COT report showed that leveraged funds liquidated 1,564 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 3,649 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short by a ratio of 1.40:1 which is down from the previous week of 1.47:1 and down substantially from the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 2.34:1.

Performance July 10-July 16         Year to Date
September Swiss franc     +3.46%         -3.29%
September euro                +2.92%          -0.71%
September pound             +1.88%          -6.01%
September yen                  +1.76%          -13.73%
September Canadian $    +1.54%           -3.62%
September Australian $  +0.63%          -10.23%
September dollar index    -2.61%           +3.18%

S&P 500 E mini:

For the week, the September S&P 500 E mini gained 19.20 points. The COT report showed that leveraged funds added 14,002 contracts to their long positions and also added 35,220 contracts to their short positions. As of the latest report, leveraged funds are short by a ratio of 1.62:1, which is nearly the same as the previous week of 1.60:1 but slightly above the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 1.48:1.