E-mail comments and questions to: garry@openinterestanalyst.com 

Note: Volume was lower across the board due to the celebration of Easter Monday in Great Britain.

Corn:

May corn closed 9 1/4 cents lower on volume of 326,222 contracts. Open interest declined by 8,637 contracts. On the decline, the May-July bull spread widened 8 3/4 cents on the decline, which is bullish. Despite the bullish fundamentals of corn, the moving averages are not favorable for the market. The 50 day moving average is $6.47, 150 day $6.49 3/4, and the 200 day $6.64. As I write this on April 10, May corn is 8 cents lower. The gap between $6.461/2 and $6.44 has been filled, however corn is a very crowded trade on the long side. The past two days have seen declines in open interest totaling 9,627 contracts. The market has experienced a massive increase of open interest during the past couple of months, and therefore further declines in open interest would be healthy for the market.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed 3 cents lower on light volume of 206,578 contracts. Open interest increased by 3,092 contracts. The market made a new high at $14.46 3/4, and closed at $14.31. The market is massively overbought. As I write this on April 10 soybeans are 6 cents higher. Stand aside.

Sugar #11:

May sugar closed 15 points lower on volume of the 107,488 contracts. Open interest declined by 3,466 contracts. As I write this on April 10, sugar is 44 points lower, which would have triggered the sell stop at 24.11 for any speculators who were long the market. Stand aside.

Crude oil:

May crude oil closed $.85 lower on volume of 424,067 contracts. Open interest increased by 3,247 contracts. The market is been on a short-term sell signal since March 29, and continues to act poorly. As I write this on April 10, May crude is $1.35 lower. Stand aside.

Gasoline:

May gasoline closed 4.38 cents lower on volume of the hundred and 43,727 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,694 contracts. For more information on the performance of the gasoline market, please see the April 8 weekend wrap for gasoline. Stand aside.

Gold:

June gold gained $13.80 on volume of 97,189 contracts. Open interest increased by 2,779 contracts. The market remains on a sell signal, but this is an opportunity to acquire gold at lower prices. Do not short the market.

Silver:

May silver close 20 cents lower on volume of 48,950 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,334 contracts. The market generated a sell signal on April 5. Stand aside.

Copper:

May copper closed 7.55 cents lower on heavy volume of 77,429 contracts. Open interest increased on the decline by 555 contracts. Volume was the highest since February 28, 2012 when 80,463 contracts were traded. Copper generated a short-term sell signal on April 9, and based upon its performance on April 10, the market may generate a longer-term sell signal. Do not short the market at this juncture because the market has had a healthy decline. In the April 15 weekend wrap, I will explore the stockpiling of copper by Chinese traders who are using the metal as collateral for other kinds of speculation. 

Euro:

The June Euro closed 60 points higher on volume of 253,899 contracts. Open interest declined on the advance by 1,577 contracts. The market has been on a sell signal since April 4. Wait for a rally before implementing bearish positions.

Australian dollar:

The June Australian dollar closed 16 points higher on volume of 52,204 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,791 contracts. On March 28, the market went on the short term sell signal. A confirmed longer-term sell signal has not occurred. Stand aside for now.

S&P 500 E mini:

The June S&P 500 E mini closed 15.25 points lower on volume of 1,084,355 contracts. Open interest increased on the decline by 6,604 contracts. For quite some time, I have been suggesting that speculators have long put protection. That protection is now getting more expensive due to the rise of the VIX, which is the volatility index of the Standard & Poor’s 500. Since March 16 when  the VIX made a low of 13.66, the index now trades at 20.50 making puts far more expensive today than they were when I suggested put protection.