May corn closed 8 3/4 cents higher on volume of 420,267 contracts. Open interest declined by 747 contracts. The market closed at 6.57 1/4, which was the highest close since January 11, 2012 when corn closed at 6.58 1/4. The market’s low of 6.46 was above my key pivot point of 6.44 3/4, therefore corn should be traded from the long side. Stops should be placed based upon risk tolerance and sound money management principles.
May soybeans continued their march higher by adding $.10 to the move on volume of 233,643 contracts. Open interest increased by 2,657 contracts. February 28 marked the 7th day in a row that beans have closed higher. The market’s close of 13.05 1/4 is the highest soybean close since September 22, 2011 and the market reached a new high for the move at 13.14 3/4. The 50 day moving average from May beans is 12.24, which means by any standard soybeans are massively overbought. The market is going to have a setback and speculators should be well prepared for this. As I’ve said before, for those that are long from lower levels, stops should be moved up based upon sound money management principles to protect profits and capital.
May sugar closed 22 points lower on relatively light volume of 128,554 contracts. Open interest increased by 8,121 contracts. As I said yesterday, if speculators are not already long, they should wait for a pullback of 75-100 points. The pullback that I’m referring to would be from the high made on February 27 of 25.81. Stops for any new position should be based upon risk tolerance and sound money management principles. My original stop of 23.81 was recommended when the market just started its upside move, but this is far too much risk to assume at this stage.
April crude closed $2.01 lower on relatively light volume of 614,103 contracts. Open interest increased by 17,340 contracts. The reduced volume on one of the biggest downside moves seen in quite awhile was very positive. The significant increase in open interest on the down move is somewhat troubling. The reason is there was a huge build in open interest during the past couple of weeks. It would be healthy to see longs and shorts closing out positions, thereby reducing open interest. Stand aside.
April gasoline closed 7.80 cents lower on relatively light volume of 139,615 contracts. Like crude oil, open interest increased on the downside move. The addition of 2,349 contracts to open interest yesterday after a large move lower was unexpected because of the huge build in open interest. Before suggesting long positions, I would like to see declining open interest accompanied by declining prices.
April gold closed $13.50 higher on volume of 172,415 contracts. Open interest increased by 8,673 contracts. The market reached a new high for the move at 1792.70. As I’ve said before, wait for a pullback before entering new long positions.
May silver closed $1.60 higher on heavy volume of 104,294 contracts. Open interest increased by 2,518 contracts. The market is massively overbought and is extremely volatile. If a speculator is interested in trading the silver market, great caution must be exercised. The 50 day moving average is down at 31.74, therefore silver could have a healthy correction. As I’ve said before, the direction of the precious metals and other commodities will take their cue from the equities market and dollar index.
The March euro closed 60 points higher on volume of 253,899 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,577 contracts. The high of 1.3473 was the identical high for the previous day. As I’ve said in previous posts, the market’s low must be above my key pivot point of 1.3408 before the market changes trend. Until that occurs, the trend is lower. Stand aside.
S&P 500 E mini:
The March S&P 500 E mini closed higher by 4.25 points on volume of 1,548,647. Open interest increased by 5,978 contracts. Long put protection should be in place.
10 Year Treasury Note:
The March 10 year treasury note closed 1 1/2 points higher on heavy volume of 2,774,792 contracts. Open interest declined by a massive 50,822 contracts. The market made a high for the move at 131-28, but it couldn’t hold. This was the highest move since February 3, 2012. Stand aside