May corn closed 5 3/4 cents higher on fairly light volume of 282,719 contracts. Open interest increased by 13,579 contracts. The market reached a new high for the move at 6.65 1/4, which was the highest price since January 12, and closed at 6.60 3/4, which was the highest close since January 4, 2012. The market is acting extremely well, but stops should be placed based upon risk tolerance and sound money management principles. The market is liable to setback in the event of a major decline in the stock market and/or a rally in the dollar.
May soybeans closed $.08 lower on very light volume of 153,305 contracts. Open interest increased by 3,403 contracts. The market made a new high at 13.36 1/2. As I’ve said before, longs should look to take partial profits and/or move up stops based upon sound money management principles and risk tolerance.
May sugar closed 20 points lower on extremely light volume of 64,690 contracts. Open interest declined by 2,380 contracts. The key downside pivot points are as follows: 24.20, 23.89 and 23.63. For a sell signal to be generated, sugar must close below 23.63 and its high must not exceed that number. The market has had a significant pullback from its high of 25.81 made on February 27. The global equities markets’ decline and a rally in the dollar index are going to adversely affect the price of sugar. The original stop for long positions was at 23.81. However, with the onset of negative market conditions, sugar could be a victim of this as well. If long, stops should be placed based upon risk tolerance and sound money management principles.
April crude oil closed $.02 higher on very light volume of 511,740 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,374 contracts. Stand aside.
April gasoline closed 1.41 cents lower on light volume of 120,352 contracts. Open interest increased by 5,201 contracts. Stand aside and wait for lower prices.
April gold closed $5.70 lower on volume of 176,224 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,653 contracts. As I’ve mentioned before, stops should be placed at the February 29 low of 1688.40. As I am writing this report, gold has made a low of 1663.40, which means that everyone should be out of the market. As I pointed out numerous times, the prices of all commodities would be affected by the movement of the dollar index and the equities market. I will continue to study the market and look for another entry point on the long side.
May silver closed sharply lower with a loss of $.83 on fairly light volume of 60,871 contracts. Open interest declined by 173 contracts. The key downside pivot points for May silver are as follows: 32.80, 32.33, and 31.86. Watch for the penetration of the pivot points. If the market closes below 31.86 and the high does not exceed that number, a sell signal will be generated. As I mentioned before, due to the volatility of silver, and the lack of liquidity in the futures contract, I suggested that silver ETF’s be used as a trading vehicle. This is not a suggestion to buy silver.
The March Euro closed unchanged on light volume of 225,475 contracts. Open interest declined 3,930 contracts. As I mentioned in previous posts, a sell signal in the Euro would be generated when the daily high did not exceed 1.3254. The high for March 5 was 1.3244, therefore a sell signal has been generated. Long puts, and/or short calls, and/or outright short positions should be implemented in the Euro. Loss parameters should be determined by risk tolerance and sound money management principles.
S&P 500 E mini:
The March S&P 500 E mini closed 5.25 points lower on volume of 1,582,225 contracts. Open interest declined by 4,057 contracts. Long put protection should be in place.
10 Year Treasury Notes:
June 10 year treasury notes closed 7 points lower on extremely light volume of 798,416 contracts. Open interest declined by a hefty 25,205 contracts. The volume on March 5 was 171, 579 contracts fewer than on March 4. I am continuing to monitor the market in order to determine its ultimate direction. Stand aside.