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Soybeans:

May soybeans lost 2.75 cents on volume of 202,465 contracts. Total open interest increased by 7,357 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% above average, meaning that new aggressive short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower. The May contract lost 11,912 open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).

As this report is being compiled on April 14, May soybeans are trading 10.25 cents higher and have made a daily high of 9.61 1/2, which is the highest print since 9.72 made on April 9. May soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal. We think soybeans are headed to October 1 contract lows.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost 40 cents on volume of 103,434 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,420 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. The May contract lost 9,988 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 14, May soybean meal is trading 3.70 higher. May soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Corn:

May corn lost 6.50 cents on volume of 396,259 contracts. Volume was the lowest since April 7 when May corn lost 2.00 cents on volume of 178,234 contracts and total open interest declined by 730. On April 13, total open interest increased by a massive 20,374 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 110% above average meaning that huge numbers of new aggressive short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower (3.70 1/4).This is the lowest print since 3.70 1/2 made on March 19. The May contract lost 24,735 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).

As bearish as speculators are on corn, the fact remains that May corn is 10.01% above its contract low of 3.39 1/4 made on October 1. We think it is unwise to get overly bearish at current levels as the planting season approaches. May corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Chicago wheat: It is likely that May and July Chicago wheat will generate a short-term sell signal on April 14. Both contracts remain on intermediate-term sell signals.

May Chicago wheat lost 24.25 cents on volume of 212,334 contracts. Total open interest increased by massive 11,187 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 105% above average, meaning that new aggressive short-sellers were entering the market in heavy numbers and driving prices lower (5.01 1/2).The May contract lost 5311 of open interest,which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on April 14, May Chicago wheat is trading 3.25 cents lower and has made a daily high 5.06 1/4, which is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 14 of 5.07  7/8 for the generation of a short term sell signal.

Kansas City wheat: May and July Kansas City wheat will generate a short term sell signal on April 14. Both contracts remain on intermediate term sell signals.

May Kansas City wheat lost 29.75 cents on heavy volume of 53,465 contracts. Total open interest increased by massive 2,376 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (5.27). As this report is being compiled on April 14, May Kansas City wheat is trading 6.50 cents lower and the daily high of 5.31 3/4 is considerably below OIA’s key pivot point for April 14 of 5.50 7/8.

Live cattle: On April 13, June live cattle generated a short-term sell signal, and remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

June live cattle advanced 15 ticks on light volume of 40,889 contracts. Total open interest increased by massive 3,089 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 200% above average meaning a battle ensued between buyers and sellers and buyers were able to edge the market fractionally higher.The April contract accounted for a loss of 925 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on April 14, June cattle is trading 1.875 cents higher, which is to be expected on the day after the generation of the sell signal. We think it is likely the rally will continue for another day before it peters out and June cattle resumes its downtrend. The sell signal will reverse if the daily low is above OIA key pivot point for April 14 of 1.51655. OIA thinks the major upside move in live cattle is over for the most part and that lower prices are ahead.

WTI crude oil: It is likely that May WTI will generate an intermediate term buy signal on April 14.

May WTI crude oil advanced 27 cents on volume of 788,497 contracts. Total open interest increased by 14,160 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average, however, the May contract lost 30,644 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).From April 2 through April 13, price and open interest action has been acting in a bullish congruent fashion: open interest increases on price advances and declines on price decreases.

On April 7, May WTI generated a short-term buy signal, and it appears likely that an intermediate term buy signal will be generated on April 14. As this report is being compiled on April 14, May WTI is trading 1.49 higher and has made a daily low of 51.83 which is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 14 of 51.50.

As we said in yesterday’s report: “The problem with WTI is that Brent crude oil is on a short-term sell signal as is heating oil and gasoline. In order for WTI to have a sustained move higher, both heating oil gasoline need to generate short term by signals along with Brent crude oil. Stand aside.”

Brent crude oil:

June Brent crude oil gained 9 cents on volume of 680,489 contracts. Total open interest increased by 5,135 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% below average. The May contract lost 28,962 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 14, June Brent crude oil is trading 1.16 higher, and will not generate a short-term buy signal because the daily low of 58.95 is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 14 of 59.55. In order for a buy signal to be generated the low of the day must be above the pivot point.  

Gold:

June gold lost $5.30 on light volume of 114,999 contracts. Total open interest declined by 462 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 80% below average. As this report is being compiled on April 14, June gold is trading 6.30 lower even as the dollar index trades sharply lower. This is revealing internal weakness in precious metals and we have consistently warned clients about the tenuous short-term buy signal. Additionally, we have cautioned about the bearish head and shoulders formation on the weekly chart. Stand aside.

Silver: May and July silver will generate an intermediate term sell signal on April 14, but will remain on a short-term buy signal.

May silver lost 9.1 cents on volume of 49,114 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,014 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower (16.235). As this report is being compiled on April 14, May silver is trading 12.6 cents lower and has made a daily low of 15.955. In order for May silver to generate a short-term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for April 14 of 16.244. We have advised clients to stand aside in silver and one of the reasons has been the bearish head and shoulders formation on the weekly charts.

Coffee:

July coffee lost 1.65 cents on very heavy volume of 63,606 contracts.Volume was the strongest since February 17 when 72,588 contracts were traded and July coffee closed at 1.6155. On April 13, total open interest declined by 2,517 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning that liquidation was very heavy on the modest decline. The May contract lost 9,805 of open interest and December 2015 -370.We expect to see continued high volume and volatility as May coffee approaches first notice day on April 22.

As this report is being compiled on April 14, July coffee has closed near unchanged on the day. For the past 3 to 4 sessions, the daily highs and lows have been lower.This is negative market action, however July coffee remains on a short-term buy signal that was generated on April 7. This signal will be reversed if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 14 of 1.3760. Stand aside.