For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

Soybeans:

July soybeans advanced 1.25 cents on volume of 187,844 contracts. Total of an interest declined by a massive 21,204 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 340% above average, meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest advance. The May contract accounted for loss of 20,060 of open interest.As this report is being compiled on April 17, July soybeans are trading 3.00 cents higher on the day. July soybeans remain on the short and intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean meal:

July soybean meal gained $1.00 on volume of 84,545 contracts.Total open interest declined by 2,012 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average. The May contract lost 4,365 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 17, July soybean meal is trading 2.50 higher on the day. July soybean meal remains on the short and intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean oil: On April 16, July soybean oil generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

July soybean oil lost 4 points on volume of 116,975 contracts. Total open interest increased by 915 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% below average. The May contract lost 11,071 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to reduce total open interest significantly below average.As this report is being compiled on April 17, July soybean oil is trading 13 points lower. We have no recommendation.

Corn:

July corn gained 0.25 cents on volume of 251,216 contracts. Total open interest increased by 4,655 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The May contract accounted for loss of 9550 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 17, July corn is trading 2.25 cents higher. July corn remains on the short and intermediate term sell signal.

Live cattle:

June live cattle gained 32.5 points on my volume of 39,538 contracts. Total open interest increased by a substantial 2,615 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 160% above average meaning that new buyers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices fractionally higher. The April contract lost 1,245 open interest. For the past three trading sessions beginning on April 14, June live cattle has rallied each day and this has been accompanied by increases of  total open interest.

Although June cattle generated a short-term sell signal on April 13, and we were expecting a counter trend rally, the three consecutive price and open interest gains on the advance caused us to be extra cautious. However, OIA did not think the short-term sell signal would be reversed. As this report is being compiled on April 17, June live cattle is trading sharply lower, down the 3.00 cent limit.

From the April 15 report:

“The question remains whether the market can close higher for a third day, however, we think the move higher is on borrowed time.The only way that June live cattle can have a sustained advance from here is if it can reverse the short term sell signal. This can only be accomplished if the June contract makes a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point for April 16 of 1.51970. We don’t think this is going to happen, and we will be looking at today’s open interest stats for an indication the current rally is about to run out of steam.”

From the April 13 report:

“As this report is being compiled on April 14, June cattle is trading 1.875 cents higher, which is to be expected on the day after the generation of the sell signal. We think it is likely the rally will continue for another day before it peters out and June cattle resumes its downtrend. The sell signal will reverse if the daily low is above OIA key pivot point for April 14 of 1.51655. OIA thinks the major upside move in live cattle is over for the most part and that lower prices are ahead.”

WTI crude oil:

May WTI crude oil gained 32 cents on volume of 1,029,520 contracts. Total open interest declined by 17,024 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% below average. The May contract accounted for a loss of 47,465 of open interest. Despite moving to a new high for the move at 57.42, the market was unable to hold the gain and selling pressure pushed prices down to close fractionally higher on the day.

We think it is perfectly understandable that market participants are reluctant to make commitments at the highest prices of the past four and half months. As this report is being compiled on April 17, June WTI is trading 43 cents lower. On April 7, that WTI generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on April 15. We have no recommendation except to say that clients should not try to pick a top in the market.

Brent crude oil:

June Brent crude oil gained 66 cents on volume of 755,321 contracts. Total open interest increased by 14,968 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The June contract account for loss of 6,556 of open interest.During the past three sessions, June Brent crude oil has advanced $4.94 while total open interest has increased by just 31,499 contracts. This is an abysmal performance.We have no recommendation except to say that clients should not try to pick a top in the market.

Gasoline: On April 16, May and June gasoline generated a short-term buy signal after generating an intermediate term buy signal on April 15.

May gasoline lost 6 ticks on volume of 199,710 contracts. Total open interest declined just 361 contracts. The May contract lost 8,969 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 17, June gasoline is trading 47 ticks lower. We have no recommendation.

Canadian dollar: On April 16, the June Canadian dollar generated a short and intermediate term buy signal.

The June Canadian dollar advanced 88 pips on volume of 113,710 contracts. Volume fell from April 15 when the June Canadian dollar gained 1.21 cents on volume of 126,351 contracts and total open interest increased by 2,870.On April 16, total open interest increased by 608 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average. However, it should be noted that the June Canadian dollar has advanced for three consecutive days beginning on April 14 and has gained a whopping 2.78 cents in this time while total open interest increased by 4062 contracts. Total open interest has increased each day as well.

The June contract made its contract low of 77.81 on March 18 and as of this writing has rallied 4.88%. The increases of open interest indicate that speculative short-sellers are not liquidating positions. This means the rally is likely to continue. As this report is being compiled on April 17, the June Canadian dollar is trading 44 pips lower, and this pullback is typical after the generation of buy signals. We have no recommendation.

Euro:

The June euro gained 1.13  cents on the volume of 352,848 contracts. Total open interest increased by 5,367 contracts, which relative to volume 40% below average, but an open interest increase on a price advance in the euro is especially bullish. The reason for this is that managed money is massively short, and any continued advance will eventually result in a short covering frenzy. A rally to the previous high of 1.10 seem in the ballpark.

Sugar #11: July sugar will generate a short-term buy signal if the low of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 17 of 13.01.

July sugar gained 39 points on volume of 198,495 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,799 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, but an increase of open interest is very positive considering that managed money is massively short sugar.The May contract accounted for loss of 12,606 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).As this report is being compiled on April 17, July sugar is trading 11 points lower and has made a daily low of 13.05.The fundamentals for sugar are negative and we cannot get enthusiastic about the long side of this market.

Coffee:

July coffee advanced 4.15 cents on very light volume of 25,645 contracts. Volume was the weakest since March 27 when coffee lost 2.05 cents on volume of 22,978 contracts and total open interest declined by 66. On April 16, total open interest declined by a massive 3,048 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 360% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the advance. The May contract accounted for loss of 4263 of open interest, which indicates that new participants were not making major commitments on the rally. This combined with the lackluster volume indicates that a cautious stance on the long side is warranted. July coffee remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.