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Soybeans:

May soybeans lost 3.75 cents on volume of 212,655 contracts. Total open interest declined by 11,104 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 115% above average. The May contract accounted for loss of 10,667 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 6, May soybeans are trading 4.50 cents lower and have made a daily high 9.90 1/4, and a low of 9.81.

In order for May soybeans to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for April 6 of 9.90 3/4.May soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $4.60 on volume of 88,834 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4,822 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 120% above average meaning liquidation was heavy on the decline. The May contract lost 8,001 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 6, May soybean meal is trading 4.60 lower. In order for May soybean meal to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for April 6 of 332.00.

Corn:

May corn gained 4.75 cents on volume of 308,653 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,256 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% below average. The May contract lost 15,555 of open interest which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to bring the total number significantly below average.As this report is being compiled on April 6, May corn is trading 1.75 lower on the day. May corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Chicago wheat:

May Chicago wheat gained 7.75 cents on heavy volume of 161,339 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,800 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average. However, the May contract lost 7,448 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).

For the past two days May Chicago wheat prices have advanced and total open interest has increased. Although the fundamentals globally for wheat is bearish, the fact is the dollar index is likely to generate a short-term sell signal on April 6 and a lower dollar should make US wheat more attractive. As this report is being compiled on April 6, May Chicago wheat is trading 9.25 cents lower and has made a daily high of 5.43 3/4, which is slightly below Thursday’s high of 5.44 1/4. May Chicago wheat remains on a short term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal.

Kansas City wheat:

May Kansas City wheat gained 10.75 cents on volume of 31,205 contract. Total open interest declined by a massive 2,603 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 260% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the advance. Note the difference in the open interest action between Chicago and Kansas City wheat. May Kansas City wheat remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate-term sell signal.

Cotton: May and July cotton will generate a short and intermediate term buy signal on April 6.

May cotton gained 1.11 cents on volume of 24,561 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 1,510 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average meaning that new buyers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices higher. As this report is being compiled on April 6, May cotton is trading 1.52 cents higher and has made a new high for the move the 65.45.

From the April 5 Weekend Wrap:

“Cotton has been holding up extremely well, and is in a potential bullish set up. First, the seasonal trend is favorable from this point through mid-to-late May., Additionally, the moving averages are in a bullish setup:  5 day moving average of 63.09, 20 day moving average of 62.34, 50 day 62.47, 100 day 61.68. We expect to see the 20 day moving average cross above the 50 day moving average in short order.”

WTI crude oil:

May WTI crude oil lost 95 cents on volume of 815,354 contract. Total open interest declined by 18,497 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average meaning that liquidation was substantial on the decline. As this report is being compiled on April 6, May WTI is trading $2.55 higher and has made a daily high of 52,22, which is the highest print since 52.48 made on March 26. In order for May WTI to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point of 49.69.

Brent crude oil:

May  Brent crude oil lost $2.15 on volume of 813,573 contracts.Total open interest increased by 16,276 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. Note that open interest declined in WTI, but increased in Brent.As this report is being compiled on April 6, May Brent crude oil is trading $3.01 the higher. In order for May Brent crude to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for April 6 of 58.36.

Gold: June gold will generate a short-term buy signal on April 6. We will begin issuing reports on gold tomorrow.

Platinum: July platinum will generate a short-term buy signal on April 6.We will issue a report tomorrow, but not on a regular basis. 

Euro: If the euro’s low is above 1.0967 on April 6, a short-term buy signal will be generated in the June contract.

The June euro gained 1.30 cents on volume of 226,237 contracts. Total open interest declined by 6,698 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% above average. As this report is being compiled on April 6, the June euro is trading 9 pips lower and has made a daily low of 1.0977, which is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 6 of 1.0967.

Dollar index: The June dollar index will generate a short-term sell signal on April 6, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

The June dollar index lost 80.2 points on volume of 41,353 contracts. Total open interest increased by 146 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 85% below average, however an open interest increase on a price decline is bearish. As this report is being compiled on April 6, the dollar index is trading slightly higher +0.03%.

Coffee: Beginning tomorrow we will be reporting on the July contract.

May coffee gained 6.05 cents on very heavy volume of 56,672 contracts. Volume was the strongest since February 17 when 72,588 contracts were traded and May coffee lost 7.65 cents.On April 2, total open interest increased by a sizable 3,412 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average meaning that aggressive new buyers were entering the coffee market in large numbers and driving prices higher (1.4145).The May contract lost 589 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).

As this report is being compiled after the close, May coffee has advanced 5.30 cents on strong volume. Although, coffee came close to generating a short-term buy signal on April 6, the daily low was slightly below OIA’s key pivot point for April 6 of 1.4050. For the July contract the daily low was 1.4310, which is below the pivot point for April 6 of 1.4365.

The total open interest increase for April 2 indicates that short sellers are not panicking and holding firm to their positions. This is positive for higher coffee prices. The fact that the dollar index is now on a short-term sell signal will help coffee and many other commodities that have moved from bear to bull.