For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

Soybeans:

July soybeans gained 8.00 cents on volume of 260,289 contracts. Total open interest declined by 10,665 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning that liquidation was heavy on yesterday’s advance. This is bearish open interest action relative to yesterday’s advance The May contract lost 21,791 of open interest and there were insufficient increases in the forward months to significantly reduce total open interest.

As this report is being compiled on April 21, July soybeans are trading 3.75 cents lower and had not taken out yesterday’s high of 9.83. A short-term buy signal in July soybeans will occur if the low of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 21 of 9.83.

Soybean oil:

July soybean oil gained 6 points on volume of 85,302 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,146 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The May contract lost 6,088 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in May.

The open interest action on April 20 was definitely positive relative to the minor price advance. As this report is being compiled on April 21, July soybean oil is trading 20 points higher and has made a daily high of 32.12, which takes out yesterday’s high of 32.06 and the April 17 high of 32.04, but is below the April 16 high of 32.21. On April 16, July soybean oil generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate-term sell signal.

Corn:

July corn lost 2.00 cents on volume of 282,820 contracts. Total open interest declined by 6,981, which relative to volume is average. The May contract lost 13,108 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 21, July corn is trading 5.50 lower. July corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Live cattle:

June live cattle lost 3.125 cents on heavy volume of 63,291 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4,907 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 210% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the sharp decline. The April, June and August 2015 contracts lost a total of 7,320 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 21, June live cattle is trading 50 points higher and has made a daily low of 1.45525, which is slightly below yesterday’s low of 1.45575. On April 13, OIA announced that June live cattle generated a short-term sell signal, and an intermediate term sell signal will be generated if the high of the day in the June contract is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 21 of 1.46020.

Cotton:  July cotton will generate a short-term sell signal if today’s high remains below OIA’s key pivot point for April 21 of 63.70. 

July cotton gained 10 points on light volume of 20,180 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,079 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 300% above average. The May contract loss 1,952 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 21, July cotton is trading 37 points lower and has made a daily high of 63.48, which is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 21 for the generation of a short term sell signal. On April 6, July cotton generated a short and intermediate term buy signal.

WTI crude oil:

June WTI crude oil gained 56  cents on volume of 727,218 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 25,978 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% above average meaning that liquidation was heavy on the advance. The May contract lost 35,936 of open interest, which means there were insufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset a good portion of the decline in the May contract. We consider yesterday’s open interest action relative to price as bearish. As this report is being compiled on April 21, June WTI is trading $1.28 lower on the day. June WTI remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal.

Silver: July silver will generate a short term sell signal on April 21 if the daily high remains below OIA’s key pivot point for April 21 16.253. On April 14, July silver generated an intermediate term sell signal.

July silver lost 34.0 cents on heavy volume of 71,418 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,761 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in very large numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (15.865), which is the lowest print since 15.870 made on March 19. As this report is being compiled on April 21, July silver is trading 9.1 cents higher, and has made a daily high is 16.200, which is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 21 for the generation of a short-term sell signal.

British Pound:

The June British pound lost 58 pips on volume of 55,463 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,777 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% above average. As this report is being compiled on April 21, the June pound is trading 55 pips higher and has made a daily low of 1.4851, which is below yesterday’s low of 1.4882. On April 17, the June pound generated a short-term buy signal, and yesterday was the first day of corrective action after the generation of the buy signal. The pound has rebounded smartly on April 21, and conceivably yesterday’s pullback may be the extent of it. We expect the current rally to test the April 17 high of 1.5048. Stand aside.

Australian dollar:

The June Australian dollar lost 61 pips on volume of 82,983 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,529 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. As this report is being compiled on April 21 the June Australian dollar is trading 6  pips higher and has made a daily low of 76.59, which is below yesterday’s print of 76.82.We think it is likely the Australian dollar will correct a bit more before testing the April 17 high of 78.17. Stand aside.

Sugar #11: Although today’s high in sugar of 12.71 is just one point above OIA’s key pivot point for April 21 of 12.70, we are calling a reversal of Friday’s short term buy signal with a short term sell signal on April 21.

July sugar lost 51 points on volume of 149,744 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 12,134 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 230% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline. The May contract accounted for loss of 18,071 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 21, July sugar has closed at 12.38, down 29 points and has made a daily high of 12.71, which is only 1 point above OIA’s key pivot point for April 21 for the generation of a sell signal. This would reverse the short term buy signal generated on April 17.

From the April 17 report:

“As clients know, after the generation of the buy signal, the market has a tendency to pull back from 1-3 days. However, the fundamentals for sugar are not very good and we recommend a stand aside posture.”

Cocoa:

July cocoa lost $61.00 on light volume of 26,596 contracts.Volume was the lightest since April 17 when July cocoa lost $33.00 on volume of 21,752. On April 20, total open interest declined by 3,194 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 400% above average, and the May contract lost 553 of open interest. The open interest decline on April 20 is positive open interest action relative to yesterday’s lower close.

Perhaps the most telling aspect of trading yesterday was the very light volume on a sharp decline. On April 14, July cocoa generated a short-term buy signal, however corrective action did not commence until April 17. As this report is being compiled on April 21, July cocoa has closed at 2775, down 5.00. July cocoa is at a major inflection point and if there is a further decline, July cocoa will reverse the buy signal.In short, if the bull market in cocoa is to be believed, the market has to begin to rally tomorrow.

Coffee:

July coffee lost 15 ticks on volume of 30,570 contracts. Total open interest declined by 360 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The May contract lost 3,016 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to reduce total open interest substantially below average.As this report is being compiled on April 21, July coffee is trading 2.15 cents higher, however since coffee generated a short-term buy signal on April 7, the July contract has been unable to make a low above the pivot point for a second time. This is revealing internal weakness, and we discourage the initiation of bullish positions at this juncture.