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The weak dollar index is giving a bid to many commodity markets on April 23, and the S&P 500 E mini is making new all-time highs.

Soybeans:

July soybeans lost 5.00 cents on volume of 251,545 contracts. Total open interest declined by 12,678 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 100% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on yesterday’s decline. The May contract lost 18,030 of open interest.

As we compile this report on April 23, July soybeans are trading 12.50 higher and have made a new high for the move of 9.85, which takes out the April 20 high of 9.83. July soybeans will generate a short-term buy signal is the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 23 of 9.82 3/4. Stand aside.

Soybean oil:

July soybean oil lost 27 points on heavier than normal volume of 151,630 contract. Total open interest declined by 3,534 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average. The May contract lost 9,925 open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 23, July soybean oil is trading sharply higher, up 63 points or +1.98% versus soybeans which are trading 1.26% higher on the day. On April 16, July soybean oil generated a short-term buy signal, it appears likely the market will generate an intermediate term buy signal tomorrow. For this to occur, the daily low in the July contract must be above OIA’s key pivot point for April 23 of 32.01.

Corn:

July corn lost 0.50 cents on volume of 342,948 contracts. Total open interest declined by 6,594 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. That May contract lost 29,298 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to reduce total open interest below average. As this report is being compiled on April 23, July corn is trading 3.75 cents higher on the day. July corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Live cattle:

June live cattle lost 70 points on volume of 48,373 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3253 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 160% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest decline. Liquidation was in evidence in the near term contracts with April losing 2,183 of open interest, June -1,792, August -149.

As this report is being compiled on April 23, June live cattle is trading 2.70 cents above yesterday’s close. On April 13, June live cattle generated a short-term sell signal, and has not been able to generate an intermediate term sell signal. We view today’s action as a rally in a bear market, and June cattle is a long way from generating a short-term buy signal.

The lean hog market looks like it’s coming to life and conceivably could generate a short-term buy signal as early as tomorrow.

WTI crude oil:

June WTI crude oil lost 45 cents on volume of 611,401 contracts.Total open interest declined by 16,409 contracts, which relative to volume is average.The May contract lost 700 of open interest.As this report is being compiled on April 23, June WTI is trading $2.01 higher and has made a daily high of 58.41 which is the highest print since 58.63 made April 20. On April 7 June WTI generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on April 14. We have cautioned clients to avoid picking a top in this market.

Brent crude oil:

June Brent crude oil advanced 65 cents on volume of 587,482 contracts. Total open interest increased by 9,875 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% below average, but the performance yesterday was the most positive that we have seen in quite a while. The June contract gained 59 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 23, June Brent is trading 2.20 higher and has made a daily high 65.58, which is a new high for the move. On April 15, June Brent crude oil generated a short and intermediate term buy signal. Like WTI, do not attempt to pick a topic in the market.

Gold:

June gold lost $16.20 on volume of 165,034 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 9,161 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 120% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (1185.00). As this report is being compiled on April 23, June gold is trading just 4.20 higher even though the dollar index is trading sharply lower. June gold will generate a short-term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 23 of 1187.00. Stand aside.

Silver: This will be our last report on silver until we announce a signal change or see a trading opportunity.On April 14, July silver generated an intermediate term sell signal and a short term sell signal occurred on April 21.

July silver lost 21.2 cents on heavy volume of 82,043 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1645 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, however an open interest increase on a price decline is clearly bearish.The May contract lost that the 5,751 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on April 23 July silver is trading 4.9 cents higher on the day.

Copper: On April 22, July copper generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on intermediate term buy signal.

July copper lost 2.85 cents on heavy volume of 88,791 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,354 contracts, which relative to volume is average. As this report is being compiled on April 23, July copper is trading 2.80 cents higher, which is the first day of the counter trend rally which usually occurs after the generation of a sell signal. July copper should rally for another day or two before resuming its downtrend.

British Pound:

The June British pound advanced 1.22 cents on volume of 88,770 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,358 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% below average. Short sellers are panicking out of the pound as it continues its advance. As this report is being compiled on April 23, the June pound is trading 17 pips higher, but has not taken out yesterday’s high of 1.5074. On April 17, OIA announced that the June British pound generated a short-term buy signal, and it continues to be on an intermediate term sell signal.

Australian dollar:

The June Australian dollar advanced 66 pips on volume of 77,032 contracts. Total open interest declined by 444 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% below average.As this report is being compiled on April 23, the June Australian dollars trading 12 pips higher. On April 17, the June Australian dollar generated short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

Canadian dollar:

The June Canadian dollar advanced 37 pips on volume of 46,991 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,942 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning liquidation was very heavy on the modest advance. As this report is being compiled on April 23, the Canadian dollar is trading sharply higher, up 68 pips and has made a daily high of 82.44 which is below the April 17 high of 82.67.

From the April 19 Weekend Wrap:

“On April 16 the June Canadian dollar generated short and intermediate term buy signals. The Canadian dollar began the counter trend pullback on Friday, and we expect another day or two of correction before the market tests the April 17 high of 82.67. The short term buy signal will reverse if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 17 of 79.17.”

Coffee:

July coffee advanced 95 ticks on very light volume of volume of 23,090 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 1,481 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 150% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest advance. The May contract lost 1017 of open interest and what’s worse, the July contract lost 1,111. As this report is being compiled on April 23, July coffee is trading 1.50 lower and still is unable to make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point for April 23 of 1.4349. July coffee remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.