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Soybeans:

July soybeans gained 8.25 cents on volume of 244,771 contracts. Total open interest increased by 248 contracts. The May contract lost 11,496 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to bring total open interest to a positive number.

As this report is being compiled on April 24, July soybeans are trading 7.25 cents lower have made a daily high at 9.83, which is below yesterday’s high of 9.85. In order for July soybeans to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for April 24 of 9.82 3/4.

Soybean oil:

July soybean oil gained 47 points on volume of 136,366 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 8,204 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average meaning that aggressive new buyers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new high for the move (32.49).The May contract lost 4,635 open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). On April 16, July soybean oil generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

Corn:

July corn lost 2.75 cents on heavy volume of 499,178 contracts. Volume with the strongest since April 15 when 476,371 contracts were traded and July corn advanced 2.00 cents while total open interest declined by 11,134 contracts.On April 23, total open interest declined by a massive 28,667 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately the 130% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest decline. The May contract lost 41,049 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 23, July corn is trading 6.25 cents lower and has made a new low for the move at 3.69 1/2. July corn remains on the short and intermediate term sell signal.

Live cattle:

June live cattle advanced the 3.00 cent daily limit on relatively light volume of 51,990 contracts. Surprisingly, open interest increased just 395 contracts, a major disappointment considering the magnitude of the move. The April contract lost 1,451 of open interest, December 2015 -309, which makes the very minor increase of open interest a bit more impressive, but all-in-all a disappointing performance.

As this report is being compiled on April 24, June live cattle is trading 2.425 cents higher. The Cattle on Feed report will be released after the close today. On April 13 June live cattle generated a short-term sell signal and for this to reverse, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot for April 24 of 1.51380. We think it is unlikely the April 13 sell signal will be reversed. 

Lean hogs: If today’s low in June and July hogs hold, a short term buy signal will be generated. June and July hogs remain on an intermediate term sell signal. After the generation of the buy signal, the market is likely to pull back from 1-3 days before resuming its uptrend.

June lean hogs advanced 2.375 cents on volume of 35,702 contracts. Total open interest increased by a strong 1,224 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% above average meaning that aggressive new buyers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices higher (78.850). The the May contract lost 39 of open interest, June -748, which makes the total open interest increase much more impressive (bullish).

The open interest action on April 23 between live cattle and lean hogs was as different as night and day. The cattle market is supposed to be the most bullish, yet the open interest increase was abysmal compared to lean hogs, which is considered the more bearish of the two. As this report is being compiled on April 24, June hogs are trading 1.075 cents higher and have made a daily low of 77.750, which is above two of OIA’s key pivot points for the generation of a short term buy signal on April 24. If today’s low holds for June and July, a short term buy signal will be generated in two different time frames for the two contracts.

WTI crude oil:

June WTI crude oil advanced $1.58 on heavier than normal volume of 869,810 contracts. Total open interest increased by 22,927 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The May contract lost 1,368 of open interest. Although the market made a high of 58.41, which is the highest print since 58.63 made on April 20, it sold off in the last hours of trading. As this report is being compiled on April 24, the June contract is trading 59 cents lower on the day. June WTI remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.

Brent crude oil:

June Brent crude oil advanced $2.12 on heavier than normal volume of 832,002 contracts. Total open interest declined by a strong 26,606 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 15% above average, meaning that liquidation was fairly heavy on the good-sized advance. The June contract lost 26,121 of open interest. The Brent crude contract has been the consistent disappointment with respect to open interest increases whenever Brent crude prices advance. As this report is being compiled on April 24, June Brent crude oil is trading 38 cents higher and has made a new high for the move of 65.80, which takes out yesterday’s high of 65.58. June Brent crude remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.

Gold:

June gold advanced $7.40 on volume of 123,533 contracts. Total open interest declined by 976 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average. As this report is being compiled on April 24, June gold is trading sharply lower, down $18.90 and has made a daily low of 1174.10. Although June gold will not generate a short-term sell signal on April 24 because the high of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point, a sell signal is likely early next week. Stand aside.

Euro:

The June euro advanced 85 pips on volume of 278,621 contracts. Total open interest increased by 5,864 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, however an open interest increase on a price advance is unusual in the euro. As this report is being compiled on April 24, the June euro is trading 33 pips above yesterday’s close and has made a new high for the move of 1.0907, which takes out yesterday’s high of 1.0853. The June euro will generate a short-term buy signal if the low of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 24 1.0877.

Dollar index:

The June dollar index lost 68.4 points on volume of 47,890 contracts. Total open interest declined by 722 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. As this report is being compiled on April 24, the June dollar index is trading 24.9 points lower.The June dollar index will generate a short-term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 24 of 97.555. We think a short-term sell signal is inevitable.

Cotton: On April 24 July cotton will generate a short-term buy signal if the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 24 of 64.86. This reverses the short term sell signal of April 21. July cotton remains on an intermediate term buy signal

July cotton advanced 2.53  cents on volume of 50,005 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 3,246 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 150% above average. The May contract lost 929 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). On April 21 July cotton generated a short-term sell signal, but never generated an intermediate term sell signal. As this report is being compiled on April 24, July cotton is trading 95 points higher and has made a daily low of 65.20, which is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 24 of 64.86.

Sugar #11:

July sugar advanced 44 points on volume of 176,127 contracts. Total open interest increased by a strong 6,540 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% above average meaning that aggressive new buyers were entering the sugar market in large numbers and driving prices to a new high for the move (13.09).

As this report is being compiled on April 24, July sugar is trading 12 points higher and has made a daily high of 13.25. The sugar market has been highly volatile of late and generated a short-term buy signal on April 17, which was reversed on April 21. If the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 24 of 13.00, July sugar will once again generate a short-term buy signal. We suggest traders avoid sugar, because it is too easy to lose money regardless of the side being traded. The market is chopping, and this is a good reason to be on the sidelines.

Coffee:

July coffee lost 2.15 cents on very light volume of 21,061 contracts.Volume was the weakest since March 23 when 14,383 contracts were traded. The light volume indicates a lack of interest by potential market participants. Also, volatility is being squeezed out of the option market, which makes options inexpensive from a volatility point of view. And the nearly two-month consolidation has taken its toll on the time premium of nearby option contracts.

On April 23, total open interest increased 1,220 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 125% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in disproportionately high numbers and driving prices lower. As this report is being compiled on April 24, July coffee is trading 50 points higher on the day. On April 7, July coffee generated a short-term buy signal, however as we pointed out in past reports it has not been able to make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point since that time. Additionally, total open interest stats on price of advances and declines is abysmal. Stand aside.