June live cattle lost 1.050 cents on volume of 46,581 contracts. Total open interest declined by 42 contracts.The April contract lost 1,332 of open interest, June -601, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset almost all the decline in the two delivery months. Yesterday’s price and open interest action was bearish. As this report is being compiled on April 28, the June contract is trading 2.60 lower on the day and a retest of the contract low of 113 900 is in the offing. We have no recommendation.
July soybeans advanced 1.25 cents on volume of 411,932 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,173, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average.The May contract accounted for a loss 11,402 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 28, the July contract is trading 11.50 cents higher and is made a daily high of 10.46 1/4, which is slightly above the April 21 print of 10.43 3/4. For the rally to continue, new buyers must be willing to pay ever higher prices and there needs to be a catalyst because soybeans are trading at the highest level since July 2015. We have no recommendation.
Soybean oil: July soybean oil is getting close to generating a short-term sell signal and this will occur if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 28 of 33.76.
Lean hogs: July lean hogs will generate a short-term buy signal on April 28 provided the daily low remains above OIA’s key pivot point for April 28 of 80.10.
July lean hogs advanced 1.35 cents on volume of 29,035 contracts. Total open interest increased by 761 contracts, which relative to volume is average.Hogs have a seasonal tendency to top in mid-May, and we see no reason why this pattern will not be repeated in 2016. A test of the March 18 high of 82.95 appears to be in the offing. We have no recommendation.
Coffee: It appears likely that July New York coffee will generate short and intermediate term sell signals within the next day or two.
WTI crude oil:
June WTI crude oil advanced $1.28 on volume of 989,105 contracts. Total open interest increased by 12,250 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. On April 26, the June contract gained 1.40 on volume of 844,397 contracts and total open interest increased only 12,136, again substantially below average. This confirms there is a reluctance by potential participants to make commitments in crude oil at ever higher prices. The June contract gained 2,682 of open interest on April 27. Yesterday, the June contract made a high of 45.62, and this has been taken out on April 28 with another new high of 45.74.We have no recommendation. The June contract remains on short and intermediate term buy signals.
Yen: The June yen will not generate a short-term buy signal on April 28. despite the very sharp move higher. The higher yen is due to the Japanese Central Bank not conducting further easing as many in the financial community had expected. The June contract will generate a short-term buy signal if the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 28 of .9163.
The June British pound lost 42 pips on volume of 97,224 contracts. Total open interest declined by a substantial 3,671 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% above average.This is perfectly healthy open interest action especially since there have been substantial open interest increases on price advances from April 22 through April 26. As this report is being compiled on April 28 the June contract is trading 57 pips higher and has made a daily high of 1.4623, which is the high made yesterday. Continue to stand aside.
The June Australian dollar lost 1.59 cents on very heavy volume of 153,432 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4,916 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% above average. Yesterday, the market made a low of 75.33 and this has not been taken out on April 28. The June contract is trading 61 pips higher on the day and has made a daily high of 76.45, which is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 28 for the generation of a sell signal of 75.99.
10 Year Treasury Note:
The June 10 year note advanced 19.5 points on volume of 1,150,209 contracts. Total open interest declined just 893 contracts. Yesterday, the June contract made a high of 129-280 and this has been taken out slightly on April 28. The S&P 500 E-mini made a high of 2094.25 on the 28th, which is a fraction above yesterday’s print of 2094.00. We think the June note can continue its rally, especially if the equity market begins to turn lower due to the shakeout in the Japanese stock market. We have no recommendation at this juncture.
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