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Soybeans:

July soybeans advanced 4.25 cents on heavy volume of 340,242 contracts. Volume with the strongest since April 15 when July soybeans gained 3.75 cents on volume of 311,131 contracts and total open interest declined by 13,859 contracts. On April 28, total open interest declined by a massive 14,602 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy as prices climbed modestly.The May contract lost 19,500 of open interest. Yesterday, July soybeans made a high for the move of 9.88, and as this report is being compiled on April 29, July soybeans have made a daily high of 9.86. July soybeans remain on the short and intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean oil:

July soybean oil  lost 46 points on volume of 150,344 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,739 contracts, which relative to volume is average. As this report is being compiled on April 29, July soybean oil is trading 26 points higher. Although, July soybean oil remains on a short-term buy signal, we recommend a stand aside posture due to the bearish set up in soybeans.

Corn:

July corn lost 0.25 cents on volume of 465,796 contracts. Total open interest declined just 3,399, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average. The May contract accounted for a loss of 29,519 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to reduce total open interest substantially below average. As this report is being compiled on April 29, July corn is trading 1.25 higher. July corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Live cattle:

June live cattle gained 85 points on light volume of 40,263 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 2,717 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 160% above average, meaning that large numbers of new longs were entering the market and driving prices higher. The April contract loss 1,445 of open interest. Yesterday June live cattle made a high of 1.51 550 and this is slightly below the April 24 high of 1.51650 when the June contract gained 2.175 cents.

Although, open interest action relative to price advances have been positive, the market has been unable to make a daily low up of OIA’s key pivot points, which would reverse the April 13 sell signal. In order for the June contract to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above our pivot point for April 29 of 1.51390. At this juncture, we think this is unlikely.

Lean hogs: It is highly likely that June and July lean hogs will generate intermediate term buy signals on April 29.

June lean hogs advanced 50 points on volume of 33,176 contracts. Total open interest declined by 107 contracts, however the June contract lost 2,604 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to reduce total open interest to a negligible number.

As this report is being compiled on April 29, June lean hogs are trading 85 points higher and have made a new high for the move of 81.175, which is the highest print since 82.225 made on March 5. Frankly, we are pleasantly surprised at the strength of lean hogs, especially since the June and July contracts generated short term by signals on April 24. Usually, a pullback would ensue after the generation of buy signals, but the market continues to march higher.

We continue to recommend a stand aside posture until such time as the contracts have a correction for at least two days. It appears that distressed short-sellers are helping to power the market higher. Remarkably, it appears likely that June and July lean hogs will generate intermediate term buy signals on April 29.

WTI crude oil:

June WTI crude oil gained 7 cents on light volume of 534,680 contracts. Total open interest increased by 7,641 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. The June contract accounted for loss of 3,116 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 29, after the release of the EIA report, June WTI is trading sharply higher, up $2.10 and has made a new high for the move of 59.33. This is a new high for the move and comes as a result of an inventory increase that is on the low side of expectations. In yesterday’s report we discussed the possibility of writing out of the have the money calls, and this will be put on the shelf for now.

The Energy Information Administration announced that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 490.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.6 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels last week.

Gold:

June gold advanced $10.70 on volume of 163,948 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,143 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average, however an open interest decline on a price advance to a new high for the move (1214.90) is clearly bearish. On April 27, June gold rallied 28.20 and total open interest declined by 14,095 contracts. In short, gold is trading bearishly relative to open interest. June gold remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate-term sell signal. Stand aside.

Silver:

July Silver advanced 23.6 cents on heavy volume of 115,627 contract. Total open interest declined by 6411 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 120% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the advance. The May contract lost 14,200 of open interest. On April 27, July silver advanced 80.3 cents and total open interest declined by 2,132 contracts.Like gold, open interest is acting bearishly on advances. Stand aside.

Euro: The June Euro will generate a short term buy signal on April 29.

The June euro advanced 98 pips on surprisingly light volume of 248,856 contracts. Total open interest increased by 457 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average, however an open interest increase on the price advance is bullish. It is apparent that speculators have not yet panicked, however this is likely to change on April 29 as the June euro is trading 1.62 cents higher and has made a new high for the move of 1.1195, which is the highest print since new 1.1199 made on March 4. OIA did not call a short-term buy signal yesterday even though the daily low was just fractionally below our pivot point, however, a short-term buy signal will be generated on April 29.

British Pound: On April 28, the June British pound generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on April 17.

The June British pound gained 1.13 cents on substantial volume of 113,365 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,248, which relative to volume is average, however this is a strong open interest increase accompanying a major advance. Additionally, leverage funds are short the pound and they are providing fuel for the continued upside move on April 29 when the June pound is trading 1.21 cents higher on the day. The June pound has made a daily high of move 1.5494, which is the highest print since 1.5541 made February 26, 2015.

Australian dollar: On April 28, the June Australian dollar generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on April 17.

The June Australian dollar it advanced a massive 1.63 cents on heavy volume of 138,741 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4,784 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the very strong advance. As this report is being compiled on April 29, the Australian dollar is trading sharply higher, this time by 41 pips and has made a daily high of 80.55, which is the highest print since 80.49 made January 22, 2015.

Canadian dollar:

The June Canadian dollar advanced 40 pips on volume of 59,115 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 2,501 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning that aggressive new buyers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new high for the move (83.18). As this report is being compiled on April 29, the June Canadian dollar is trading higher by 39 pips and has made a new high for the move 83.66, which is the highest print since 83.40 made January 20, 2015. On April 16, OIA announced that the June Canadian dollar generated a short and intermediate term buy signal.

Dollar index:

The June dollar index lost 74.7 points on volume of 53,021 contracts. Total open interest increased by 891 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% less than average, however an open interest increased on yesterday’s price decline is clearly bearish. As this report is being compiled on April 29, the June dollar index is trading dramatically lower, down 1.254 and has made a new low for the move of 94.750, which is below the spike low of 94.765 made on March 18.

On April 27, OIA announced that the June dollar index generated a short-term sell signal, and we are surprised at the extreme weakness of the dollar index contract. Usually, after the generation of the sell signal, the market has a counter trend rally, which can last from 1-3 days, but instead the market has gone straight down. The cash dollar index will generate an intermediate term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 29 of 95.517.

Sugar #11: On April 28, July sugar generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal. This will be our last report for sugar until we announce a signal change or see a trading opportunity.

July sugar lost 16 points on volume of 130,479 contracts.Total open interest declined by 1,867 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% less than average.The May contract lost 8555 open interest. Stand aside.

Coffee:

July coffee advanced 1.50 on light volume of 22,408 contracts. Total open interest increased by 263 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average, however an open interest increase on a price advances positive. The May contract lost 357 of open interest, July -552, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled, July coffee has closed fractionally higher at 1.3900. July coffee remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate-term sell signal. Stand aside.