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Live cattle:

June cattle lost the 3.00 cent limit on heavy volume of 54,892 contracts. Total open interest declined by 509 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The April contract lost 1,373 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 29 the June contract is trading 55 points above yesterday’s close. We have no recommendation.

Lean hogs: On April 28, June and July lean hogs generated short-term buy signals, but remain on intermediate term sell signals.

Corn:

July corn gained 6.50 cents on volume of 470,368 contracts. Volume increased from April 27 when the July contract lost 2.50 on volume of 386,041 contracts and total open interest declined by 22,126 contracts.On April 28, total open interest declined by 8,207 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average. The May contract accounted for a loss of 28,747 of open interest.

Yesterday’s action was negative and follows the negative price and open interest action on April 26 when the July contract gained 5.50 cents and total open interest declined by 26,187 contracts. In other words, both longs and shorts have been liquidating on price advances.

As this report is being compiled on April 29 the July contract is trading nearly unchanged on the day and has not taken out yesterday’s high of 3.95 1/4. On April 14, OIA announced that July corn generated a short and intermediate term buy signal. We have no recommendation.

Soybeans:

July soybeans lost 1.00 cent on light volume of 364,561 contracts. Volume fell below that of April 27 when the July contract gained 1.25 on volume of 411,932 contracts and total open interest declined by 2,173. Additionally, volume was the lowest since April 18 when the July contract lost 1.75 on volume of 379,218 contracts and total open interest increased by 14,715.

On April 28, total open interest declined by 4,737 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The May contract lost 13,777 of open interest. Yesterday, July soybeans made a new contract high of 10.46 1/4, which took out the previous high of 10.43 3/4 made on April 21, but the market was unable to hold its gains and closed fractionally lower.

Yesterday’s low volume as soybeans made a new contract high and then closed fractionally lower indicates that many would be participants remain on the sidelines.  This follows the action of last week when prices advanced to their highs on April 20 and 21, and total open interest declined on both days. We think it is safe to say that a temporary top is in place. Stand aside.

Soybean meal:

July soybean meal gained $5.10 on volume of 185,518 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,956 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, but an open interest decline on yesterday’s advance is negative. Additionally, the July contract made a new contract high of $339.90, which is the highest print since 344.00 made the week of August 10, 2015. Soybean meal price and open interest action has been consistently bearish, and this confirms the weak under-pinning for soybeans.

Soybean oil: July soybean oil will generate a short-term sell signal on April 29. This confirms the weak underpinning for soybeans. Wait for a counter trend rally before initiating bearish positions. According to the COT report of last week, managed money is long soybean oil by ratio of 4.46:1. This group will supply downward pressure as prices eventually begin to move substantially lower.

WTI crude oil:

June WTI crude oil advanced 70 cents on light volume of 776,023 contracts. Volume was the weakest since March 29 when 769,310 contracts were traded and the June contract closed at $39.51. On April 28, surprisingly, total open interest increased just 271 contracts. The June contract accounted for a loss of 9,533 of open interest and there were barely enough open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in June and increase total open interest.

Yesterday’s performance from a volume and open interest stand point relative to the price advance was abysmal. This indicates that many participants remain on the sidelines and are unwilling to make strong commitments at ever higher prices. As this report is being compiled on April 29 the June contract is trading 22 cents below yesterday’s close and has made a new contract high of 46.78, but is trading approximately $1.00 below the high. June WTI remains on short and intermediate term buy signals. We have no recommendation.

Gold:

June gold advanced $16.00 on heavy volume of 241,366 contracts. Total open interest exploded higher, up 23,355 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 285% above average. Yesterday, the June contract made a new high for the move of 1271.70 and as this report is being compiled on April 28, the June contract is trading sharply higher, up $26.50 and has made a new contract high of 1299.00 on a sharply lower dollar and equity market. Today’s print takes out the previous contract high of 1287.80 made on March 11. Corrections should be bought and gold remains on short and intermediate term buy signals.

Yen: On April 29, the June yen will generate a short-term buy signal, which reverses the April 25 short-term sell signal. The June yen remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

The June yen exploded higher in yesterday’s trading, up 266 pips on heavy volume of 243,062 contracts. Surprisingly, total open interest increased only 2,699 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. As this report is being compiled on April 29 the June contract is trading sharply higher again, up 112 pips and has made a new contract high of .9386. This takes out the previous contract high of. 9304 made on April 7.

Euro: The June euro will not generate a short-term buy signal on April 29. For this to occur, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for April 29 of 1.1405.

The June euro advanced 23 pips on volume of 170,714 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,210, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. As this report is being compiled on April 29 the June euro is trading sharply higher, up 88 pips and has made a new high for the move of 1.1475. This is the highest print since 1.1486 made on April 12. We have no recommendation.

British pound:

The June British pound advanced 70 pips on volume of 83,123 contracts. Volume fell from April 27 when the June contract lost 42 pips on volume of 97,224 and total open interest declined by 3,671. On April 28, total open interest increased by a massive 3,714 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning aggressive new buyers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a high of 1.4626, which is fractionally above the April 27 high of 1.4623.

As this report is being compiled on April 29 the June contract is trading 12 pips lower after making a new high for the move of 1.4675, which is just 1 pip above the high of 1.4674 made on February 4. On a day (April 29) when the pound should be advancing strongly along with the rest of the major currencies, it is trading lower after making a daily high just slightly above the previous high made almost 3 months ago. Additionally, since April 26 when the June contract made its high for the move of 1.4641, the pound has only been able to advance a mere 34 pips over the subsequent two days.

Clients should begin thinking about bearish positions in the pound, but we will reserve judgment until we see today’s open interest stats and the COT report released this afternoon. If it shows that managed money has moved to a net long position, we would have another confirming indicator that the pound rally is on its last legs.