For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

Soybeans:

July soybeans advanced 10.75 cents on unimpressive volume of 235,313 contracts. Volume shrank dramatically from April 28 when July soybeans gained 4.25 cents on volume of 340,242 contracts and total open interest declined by 14,602. On April 29, open interest declined again, this time by a massive 16,251 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 170% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the advance. The May contract lost 19,313 of open interest, which means there was very little in the way of new open interest increases in the forward months.

As this report is being compiled on April 30, July soybeans are trading 12.50 lower after making a new high for the move at 9.95. For a while it looked like July soybeans might be able to generate a short-term buy signal, but this has been dashed on April 30. It appears that a tradeable high of 9.95 is in place, and we think clients should look to initiate bearish positions on any rally close to the 9.95 level.

Soybean oil:

July soybean oil gained 26 points on volume of 124,129 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,368 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The May contract lost 6,774 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 30, July soybean oil is trading 4 points lower. As we have said before, with soybeans vulnerable to further downside action, we do not see the point in being involved in soybean oil even though soybean oil remains on a short-term buy signal. It remains on intermediate-term sell signal.

Corn:

July corn gained 3.25 cents on volume of 357,146 contracts. Total open interest declined by 19,544, which relative to volume is approximately 120% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest advance. The May contract lost 28,301 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 30, July corn is trading 2.50 lower and remains above the low for the move of 3.62 1/2 made on April 28.July corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Live cattle:

June live cattle lost 22.5 ticks on light volume of 37,399 contracts. Total open interest declined by 737 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average.The April contract lost 1506 of open interest, June -2035. As this report is being compiled on April 30, June live cattle is making new lows for the move and trading 2.50 cents lower. On April 13, June live cattle generated a short-term sell signal, and we have cautioned clients that in order for the June contract to continue to advance, it would have to reverse the short-term sell signal. It has been unable to accomplish this and we see a test of the recent lows as the next target.

Lean hogs: On April 29, June and July lean hogs generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on April 24.

June lean hogs advanced 1.30 cents on volume of 35,401 contracts. Total open interest increased by 357 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. However, the June contract lost 1,894 of open interest and the May and August contracts lost a total of 207, which makes the minor increase of open interest more impressive (bullish).

On April 24, June and July lean hogs generated a short-term buy signal, and remarkably the market has barely had a setback since. As this report is being compiled on April 30, June lean hogs has made a new high for the move of 82.625, has reversed and is trading 25 points lower on the day. The market is overdue for a fairly substantial correction, and we advise clients remain on the sidelines until this has occurred.

WTI crude oil:

June WTI crude oil advanced $1.52 on heavy volume of 866,853 contracts. Volume was the strongest since April 23 when the June contract rallied 1.58 on volume of 869,810 contracts and total open interest increased by 22,927 contracts.The June contract gained 5,623 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 30, June WTI is trading 83  cents higher has made a new high for the move of 59.47, which takes out the previous high for the move made yesterday of 59.33. On April 7, June WTI generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on April 14. We have no recommendation.

Brent crude oil:

June Brent crude oil advanced $1.20 on volume of 625,817 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,339 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average, and the total open interest decline on a price advance is clearly bearish. The June contract lost 11,179 of open interest and there were insufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the June decline. As this report is being compiled on April 30, June Brent crude is trading 56 cents higher, however it has not yet taken out the high for the move made yesterday at 66.72. Open interest and volume is acting in a clearly bearish fashion in Brent, whereas it is bullish in WTI. We have no recommendation.

10 Year Treasury Note: On April 29, the June 10 Year Treasury Note generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on intermediate term buy signal. 

The June 10 year treasury note lost 14 points on heavy volume of 2,044,561 contracts. Total open interest increased by 51,387 contracts, which relative to volume is average, however the open interest increase on yesterday’s price decline is bearish.As this report is being compiled on April 30, the June contract is trading 13 points lower and has made a new low for the move of 127-260.Now that the 10 year note is on a short-term sell signal, the market should have a counter trend rally lasting one-three days and this is the opportunity to initiate bearish positions if you are so inclined. It should be noted that leveraged funds are heavily net short.

Dollar index:

The June dollar index lost 87.2 points on very heavy volume of 104,051 contracts. Total open interest declined by massive 7,505 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 200% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on one of the biggest declines in the dollar index of the past several months.

As this report is being compiled on April 30, the June contract is trading 30.2 points lower and has made new low for the move at 94.470, which is below the March 18 spike low of 94.765. On April 27, OIA announced that the June dollar index generated a short-term sell signal and will generate an intermediate term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 30 of 95.502. Since the generation of the sell signal, the dollar index has headed straight down.

Euro: On April 29, the June euro generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

The June euro gained 1.33 cents on heavy volume of 461,458 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,864 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 80% below average, however the open interested decline on the price advance indicates that short sellers were powering the euro higher, not new buyers.

As this report is being compiled on April 30, the June euro is trading 94 pips higher and has made a new high for the move at 1.1256, which is the highest print since 1.1231 made on March 3. It looks increasingly likely that the euro will generate an intermediate term buy signal, and for this to occur, the daily low must be above OIA’s key pivot point for April 30 of 1.1090.The market has gone straight up to the past several days, and the euro should see a sharp setback shortly. Stand aside.

British Pound:

The June British pound advanced 95 pips on very heavy volume of 143,741 contracts. Remarkably, open interest declined only 138 contracts. As this report is being compiled on April 30, the June contract is correcting, down 99 pips after generating an intermediate term buy signal on April 28. The June pound generated a short-term buy signal on April 17. Stand aside.

Australian dollar:

The June Australian dollar gained 21 pips on heavy volume of 142,538 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,088 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 15% below average, however the open interest decline on the price advance is bearish. As this report is being compiled on April 30, the Australian dollar has reversed dramatically, trading 1.37 cents lower. On April 28, the June Australian dollar generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short term buy signal on April 17. Stand aside.

Canadian dollar:

The June Canadian dollar advanced 12 pips on heavy volume of 79,833 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,656 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. As this report is being compiled on April 30, the June Canadian dollar is trading 53 pips lower on the day. On April 16, the June Canadian dollar generated a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.

Coffee:

July coffee advanced 45 ticks on very light volume of 15,564 contracts. Volume was the lightest since March 23 when 14,383 contracts were traded. On April 29, total open interest increased by 790 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 100% above average meaning a battle ensued between buyers and sellers and buyers were able to edge prices fractionally higher. As this report is being compiled on April 30, July coffee is trading 1.50 lower on the day. The technical action is weak, and there seems to be little enthusiasm for the long side of the coffee market. Despite this, July coffee remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate-term sell signal. Stand aside.