For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

Soybeans:

July soybeans lost 12.00 cents on the surprisingly light volume of 216,710 contracts.Volume was below that of April 29 when July soybeans advanced 10.75 cents on volume of 235,313 contracts and total open interest declined by 16,251. Additionally, volume was the lightest since April 24 when July soybeans lost 9.25 on volume of 210,590 contracts and total open interest declined by 28,343. On April 30, total open interest declined by 1,643 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average. The May contract accounted for loss of 5093 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on May 1, July soybeans are trading 12.50 lower on the day. July soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal. If a rally occurs, we would use the opportunity to initiate bearish positions with an exit point at the April 30 high of 9.95.

Soybean oil:

July soybean oil gained 1 point on volume of 97,630 contracts. Total open interest declined by 5,671 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 135% above average. The May accounted for loss of 1,919, which means there were additional open interest declines in the forward months. We consider the open interest action on April 30 as negative. As this report is being compiled on May 1, July soybean oil is trading 9 points lower. July soybean oil remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate-term sell signal. Stand aside.

Corn:

July corn lost 1.50 cents on volume of 361,050 contracts. Total open interest declined by 7,087 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The May contract lost 5,838 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on May 1, July corn is trading 4.75 lower and has made a new low for the move at 3.60 3/4. July corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Live cattle:

June live cattle lost 1.20 cents on volume of 52,052 contracts. Total open interest declined by 566 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. As this report is being compiled on May 1, June live cattle is trading 90 points lower and has made a daily low of 1.48400, which is above yesterday’s low of 1.48125. On April 13, June live cattle generated a short-term sell signal, and it has been unable to reverse it despite many attempts. June live cattle remains on intermediate term buy signal.

Lean hogs:

June hogs advanced 22.5 points on volume of 57,986 contracts. Volume with the highest since March 24 when 63,148 contracts were traded and June lean hogs made their contract low of 72.050. On April 30, total open interest increased by 1,350 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average, but an open interest increase on a price advance when lean hogs are on a short and intermediate term buy signal, is positive. The May contract lost 370 of open interest, June -1349, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).

As this report is being compiled on May 1, June lean hogs are trading fractionally higher and have made a daily low of 80.750, which is above yesterday’s low of 80.375. On April 24, June and July lean hogs generated a short term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on April 29. The market is pulling back, which is normal after the generation of a buy signal. The June contract made a high of 82.625 on April 30, which was the highest print since 82.450 on March 4. We think the market could see a further correction before resuming its uptrend.

WTI crude oil:

June WTI crude oil advanced $1.05 on volume of 712,422 contract. Volume fell from April 29 when the June contract advanced 1.52 on volume of 866,853 and total open interest increased by 19,276 contracts. On April 30, total open interest increased by just 3,538 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average. The June contract lost 1,816 of open interest.

Considering the magnitude of the advance and the fact that the June contract made a new high for the move at 59.85, the open interest increase is a disappointment. As this report is being compiled on May 1, June WTI is trading 1.15 lower on the day and has made a fractional new high at 59.90. June WTI remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. We have no recommendation.

Brent crude oil:

June Brent crude oil advanced 94 cents on volume of 649,948 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,190 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average. The June contract lost 24,154 of open interest and there were insufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in June. As this report is being compiled on May 1, June Brent is trading 1.05 lower. The Brent contract has been a total disappointment with respect to open interest and volume during the rally. June Brent remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal.

Natural gas: June natural gas will generate a short-term buy signal on May 1 if it can maintain its daily low above OIA’s key pivot point for May 1 of 2.689. This would be the first short-term buy signal generated by natural gas in many months.

June natural gas advanced 14.5 cents on heavy volume of 476,596 contracts. Volume was the strongest since April 16 with 460,188 contracts were traded and June natural gas advanced 7.7 cents. On April 30, total open interest increased by 3,724 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average, however the June contract lost 9,938 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).

Additionally, on April 29, June natural gas gained 6.9 cents on volume of 212,329 contracts and total open interest increased by 5,078 contracts. On April 28 June natural gas advanced 2.3 cents on the light volume of 183,854 contracts and total open interest increased by 1,974.

In short, for the past three days as natural gas prices have advanced, open interest has increased each day. This is bullish, especially since managed money is extremely short natural gas. Natural gas should see a pullback and this will be the opportunity to initiate bullish positions.

Copper: On April 30, July copper generated a short-term buy signal, which reversed the short-term sell signal of April 22. July copper remains on intermediate term buy signal.

July copper advanced by a very strong 8.75 cents on volume of 78,704 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 6,264 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 220% above average. The May contract lost 864 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).

As this report is being compiled on May 1, July copper is trading higher again, this time by 4.40 cents and has made a new high for the move at 2.9320, which is the highest print since 2.9105 made on March 23. As it stands, July copper is trading 20.68% above its January 26 contract low of 2.4245, and 10.57% below the 52-week high of 3.2720 made in July 2014. While copper fundamentals are not terribly bullish, the moving average set up looks positive with the 20 day moving average standing at 2.7549, 50 day  2.7139, and the 100 day moving average of 2.7042. We have no recommendation. 

Gold: June gold will generate a short-term sell signal on May 1. It remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

June gold lost $27.60 on heavy volume of 221,230 contracts. Total open interest increased by a substantial 9,918 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in very large numbers and driving prices lower (1176.00). As this report is being compiled on May 1, June gold is trading 10.20 lower and has made a new low for the move at 1168.40.This market has been acting bearishly for quite some time, and the sell signal just confirms this. Stand aside.

Euro: The June euro will generate an intermediate term buy signal on May 1 after generating a short term buy signal on April 29.

The June euro advanced 1.48 cents on heavy volume of 448,719 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4,162 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. As this report is being compiled on May 1, the June euro is trading 73 pips lower, and will generate an intermediate term buy signal because the low for the day of 1.1181 is above OIA’s key pivot point for May 1.1090. Stand aside.

Coffee: On May 1, July coffee will generate a short-term sell signal, which reverses the short-term buy signal of April 7. July coffee remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

July coffee lost 1.55 cents on volume of 28,947 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,321 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average mean liquidation was heavy on the decline. As this report is being compiled on May 1, July coffee has closed at 1.3420, down 3.25 cents. The market has been acting weakly ever since generated a short-term buy signal on April 7, and we thought with potentially bullish fundamentals, the market would turn around, but this clearly has not been the case. Although, with potentially bullish fundamentals, we cannot recommend bearish positions, we suggest a sideline stance.