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Soybeans:

May soybeans lost 18.00 cents on heavy volume of 335,819 contracts. Volume was the strongest since March 31 when May soybeans advanced 5.50 cents on volume of 332,725 contracts and total open interest increased by 11,704. On April 9, total open interest increased by a massive 13,403 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (9.50 1/4). The May contract lost 306 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on April 10, May soybeans are trading 8.00 cents lower and had made another new low for the move of 9.44 1/2, which is not far from its contract low of 9.28 3/4 made on October 1, 2014.May soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal and a test of the contract low is inevitable.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $7.80 on very heavy volume of 152,956 contracts.Volume was the strongest since February 24 when 154,595 contracts were traded and May soybean meal closed at 345.70. On April 9, Total open interest increased by a substantial 5,550 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (311.40). The May contract lost 9,035 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase much more impressive (bearish).

As this report is being compiled on April 10, May soybean meal is trading 3.30 lower and has made a new low for the move at 308.60, which is the lowest print since 299.90 made on October 13, 2014. A move to the October 1, 2014 contract low of 292.30 is inevitable.

Corn:

May corn lost 1.25 cents on volume of 439,215 contracts. Volume increased from the previous heavy volume day on April 8 when May corn lost 3.75 cents on volume of 430,732 contracts and total open interest increased by 20,337. On April 9, total open interest increased by 7,647 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average, but an open interest increase on a price decline is bearish. The May contract lost 19,839 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase much more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on April 10, May corn is trading 3.00 cents lower. May corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Chicago wheat:

May Chicago wheat lost 7.50 cents on volume of 170,145 contracts. Volume was heavy, but fell from April 8 when May Chicago wheat gained 0.25 cents on volume of 178,530 contracts and total open interest increased by 2,185. On April 9, total open interest increased by 4,274 contracts, which relative to volume is average. As this report is being compiled on April 10, May Chicago wheat is trading 4.00 cents above yesterday’s close. May Chicago wheat remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate-term sell signal.

Kansas City wheat:

May Kansas City wheat lost 9.75 cents on volume of 48,961 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,018 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. As this report is being compiled on April 10, May Kansas City wheat is trading 4.75 cents higher. May Kansas City wheat remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate-term sell signal.

Cotton:

July cotton lost 33 points on very heavy volume of 63,854 contracts. Volume traded on April 9 was the highest of 2015 and took out the previous high-volume day of February 5 when 59,690 contracts were traded and July cotton closed at 62.14. On April 9, total open interest declined by 255 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 80% below average, but this is the first open interest decline seen in the cotton market for the past several days. An open interest decline accompanied by a price decline is positive open interest action. The open interest increases over the past few days have been heavy, and we would like to see this pared on further declines.

As this report is being compiled on April 10, July cotton is trading 88 points lower and has made a daily low of 65.01. On April 6, May and July cotton generated a short and intermediate term buy signal, and we have just begun to see the corrective action that generally accompanies buy signals. We are looking for a move down to the 50 day moving average at 63.54 before recommending bullish positions.

WTI crude oil:

May WTI crude oil gained 37 cents on volume of 953,792 contracts. Although, total open interest increased just 1,955 contracts, the May contract lost 51,807 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in May and bring total open interest to a positive number. We consider this action to be bullish. From April 2 through April 9, price and open interest action has been acting in a bullish congruent fashion: open interest increases on price advances and declines on price decreases.

As this report is being compiled on April 10, May WTI is trading 59 cents higher and has made a daily high of 51.74, which is below yesterday’s high of 52.07. On April 7, May WTI generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal. We were looking for a further setback after the massive correction on April 8 of 3.56 that would enable clients to write out of the money puts.This has not occurred and therefore we recommend a sideline stance.

Brent crude oil:

May Brent crude oil gained $1.02 on volume of 739,375 contracts. Total open interest increased by 7,061 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The May contract lost 20,182 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on April 10, May Brent crude oil is trading 92 cents higher. May Brent crude oil remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Gold:

June gold lost $9.50 on volume of 115,894 contracts. Total open interest declined just 108 contracts. As this report is being compiled on April 10, June gold is trading 10.60 higher and has made a daily high of 1210.60, which is the highest print since 1212.50 made on April 8. June gold remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. A short term sell signal will be generated is the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for April 10 of 1182.80.There is a bearish head and shoulders pattern on the weekly gold chart and this is a sign of caution.

Silver:

May silver lost 27.8 cents on heavy volume of 62,033 contracts. Total open interest declined 305 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average. However, the May contract lost 3,759 open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to reduce total open interest significantly below average. We consider this to be bearish.

As this report is being compiled on April 10, May silver is trading 20.9  cents higher has made a daily high is 16.65, which is the highest print since 16.905 made on April 8. Although, the 20 day-50 day-100 day-moving averages are in a bullish set up, the fact remains there is a bearish head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. 

Coffee:

July coffee advanced 1.40 cents on huge volume of 60,642 contracts. Volume was the strongest since February 17 when 72,588 contracts were traded and July coffee closed at 1.6155. On April 9, total open interest increased by 337 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average, however, the May contract lost 6,844 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in May.

As this report is being compiled on April 10, July coffee is trading 1.25 cents lower and has made a daily lower 1.3655, which is slightly below yesterday’s low of 1.3665. On April 7, May and July coffee generated a short-term buy signal, however it appears likely this signal was false and will reverse next week. Ever since the generation of the buy signal, the technical action has been weak. We continue to recommend a sideline stance.