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Corn:

March corn lost 7.50 cents on volume of 222,217 contracts. Total open interest increased by a sizable 7,652 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average. There were open interest increases in the March 2016 through December 2019 contracts.

Yesterday, the March contract made a new low for the move of 3.69 1/4 and this is been taken out on December 17 with a new contract low of 3.62 1/2. Today, the daily high of 3.70 3/4 is below OIA’s pivot point for the resumption of the downtrend. We have no recommendation.

Soybeans: The January contract will generate a short-term sell signal on December 17 if the daily high remains below OIA’s key pivot point for December 17 of 8.68 7/8

January soybeans lost 4.50 cents on heavy volume of 308,986 contracts. Volume was the strongest since December 7 when the January contract lost 23.75 cents on volume of 306,935 contracts and total open interest increased by 2,052. On December 16, total open interest increased by 2,634 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The January contract lost 8,920 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in January and increase total open interest. This was bearish price and open interest action.

As this report is being compiled on December 17, the January contract is trading nearly unchanged after making a new low for the move of 8.54, which is above the contract low of 8.44 1/2 made on November 23. We have no recommendation.

From the December 14 report on soybeans:

“Yesterday’s bearish action follows the bearish action of December 11 when the January contract lost 7.50 cents on volume of 261,397 contracts and total open interest increased by 7,112. On December 10, January soybeans advanced 1.50 cents on volume of 211,399 contracts and total open interest declined by 6,657.”

“In summary, price and open interest action for the past three days has been acting in a bearish congruent fashion.”

Coffee: March coffee will generate a short term sell signal on December 17 provided the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for December 17 of 1.1994. This will reverse the short term buy signal of December 9. March coffee remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

WTI crude oil:

January WTI crude oil lost $1.83 on volume of 1,051,720 contracts. Total open interest declined by 17,320 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% below average. The January contract accounted for loss of 47,114. As this report is being compiled on December 17, the January contract is trading 81 cents lower and has made a daily low of 34.63, which is slightly above the contract low of 34.53 made on December 14. January WTI remains on short and intermediate term sell signals. We have no recommendation.

Dollar index: The March dollar index will generate a short term buy signal on December 17. This reverses the short-term sell signal of December 14. The March dollar index remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

The March dollar index lost 40.4 points on volume of 47,566. Total open interest declined by 188 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 80% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 229 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on December 17, the March contract has exploded higher, trading +1.421 points above yesterday’s close and has made a daily high of 99.345, which is below the recent high for the move of 100.700 made on December 3. This is still substantially below the continuation high for 2015 of 102.380 made on March 18, but clearly the dollar index is heading for a test of this print. We have no recommendation.

Euro: The March euro will generate a short term sell signal on December 17. This will reverse the December 14 short term buy signal. The March euro remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

The March euro advanced 62 pips on volume of 292,568 contracts. Total open interest declined by 72,933 contracts, and this was due to the expiration of the December contract. As this report is being compiled on December 17, the March contract is trading sharply lower, down 1.68 cents or -1.53%. It appears the March contract is headed for a test of its contract low of 1.0540 made on December 3. The euro should have a counter trend rally after generating a short-term sell signal and this will be the opportunity to initiate bearish positions. Stand aside for now.

Yen: The March yen will generate a short-term sell signal on December 17. This will reverse the short-term buy signal of December 14. The March yen remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

The March yen lost 40 pips on volume of 130,095 contracts. Total open interest declined by 44,440 contracts and this was due to the expiration of the December contract. As this report is being compiled on December 17, the yen is trading lower, down 59 pips, or -0.72%.

Of the six major currencies we follow: euro, yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, the yen is the best performer on December 17. Contrary to many in the trade, we are not terribly bearish on the yen against some of the aforementioned currencies, but for now it appears the path of least resistance is lower. We have no recommendation.

Australian dollar:

The March Australian dollar advanced 63 pips on volume of 82,753 contracts. Total open interest declined by 73,330 contracts, which is due to the expiration of the December contract. As this report is being compiled on December 17, the March contract is trading sharply lower, down 1.41 cents or -1.95%. The Australian dollar will not generate a short or intermediate term sell signal on December 17, but this is likely to occur tomorrow or Monday. The March contract remains on short and intermediate term buy signals. We have no recommendation.

S&P 500 E-mini:

The March S&P 500 E-mini advanced 26.75 points on volume of 2,611,893 contracts. Total open interest declined 5,227 contracts. The December contract, which expires tomorrow, lost 159,249 of open interest and there were insufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in December. Yesterday, was the most negative price and open interest action since December 9. The open interest decline likely represented capitulation at the high end of the past week’s trading range.

Yesterday, the March contract made a high of 2068.75, and this was taken out in the early part of today’s session with a move to 2072.75, the highest print since 2071.75 made on December 9. In the report of November 30, we recommended shorting calls in the December 2015 S&P 500 E-mini and this trade has been profitable from the start. Continue to hold the position into tomorrow’s expiration.