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Soybeans:

March soybeans gained 6.75 cents on volume of 277,932 contracts. Total open interest declined by 10,500 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% above average. The March contract accounted for loss of 26,810 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 17, March soybeans are trading 16.50 cents higher and have made a daily high of 10.08, which is above 9.99, the high made on February 3 and the recommended exit point for bearish positions, though OIA has not recommended bearish positions Although we think prices are eventually headed lower, it appears the market wants to go higher at least for now. We recommend the stand aside posture.

Soybean Meal:

March soybean meal gained $1.80 volume of 88,324 contracts. Total open interest increased by 459 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average. However, the March contract lost 8,048 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on February 17, March soybean meal is trading sharply higher, up 9.90, or +2.88% versus soybeans, which are up 1.67%. Maintain bearish positions recommended in the January 5 report, however use the penetration of February 3 high of 344.70 as the exit point.

Corn:

March corn gained 4.25 cents on volume of 326,218 contracts. Total open interest declined by 6,313 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 35,030 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 17, March corn is trading unchanged on the day. March corn remains on the short and intermediate term sell signal.

WTI crude oil: On February 13, March and April WTI crude oil generated short-term buy signals, but remain on intermediate term sell signals.

March WTI crude oil gained $1.57 on volume of 1,040,717 contracts. Total open interest declined by 11,007 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The March contract lost 34,886 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 17, March W TI is trading up 43 cents after  making a daily low of 50.81, which is below the print of February 13 of 51.03, but above the print of February 12 of 49.14. We recommend a stand aside posture.

Brent crude oil:

April Brent crude oil gained $2.24 on light volume of 526,936 contracts. Total open interest increased by 6,831 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% less than average. The April contract lost 12,114 of open interest. It should be noted the open interest action in Brent crude oil is bullish, whereas in WTI, has been bearish. As this report is being compiled on February 17, April Brent crude oil is trading $1.05 higher and is making new highs for the move. April Brent crude oil generated a short-term buy signal on February 3, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

Heating oil:

March heating oil gained 5.77 cents on heavy volume of 245,270 contracts. Total open interest declined by 9,536 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% above average meaning that market participants were liquidating as prices advanced.The March contract accounted for loss of 12,120 of open interest, which means there were insufficient increases in the forward months to offset the decline in March.

As this report is being compiled on February 17, March heating oil is trading 1.07 cents higher on the day. March heating oil will generate an intermediate term buy signal if the low of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point for February 17 of 1.9928. With managed money holding a substantial net short position, we would not be surprised to see an intermediate term buy signal generated. March heating oil generated a short-term buy signal on February 3.

Gasoline:

March gasoline gained 3.07 cents on volume of 184,685 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4,550 contracts, which relative to volume is average.The March contract lost 9,668 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 17, March gasoline is trading 4.72 cents lower on the day. On February 3, March gasoline generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

Gold:

April gold gained $6.40 on very light volume of 102,297 contract. Total open interest declined by 2,481 contracts, which relative to volume is average. As this report is being compiled on February 17, April gold is trading sharply lower, down 21.00, or -1.71%. On February 9, April gold generated a short-term sell signal, and though we didn’t think so a couple of days ago, it now looks more likely that an intermediate term the sell signal may be generated.In order for April gold to generate an intermediate term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for February 17 of 1208.30. Continue to stand aside.

Silver:

March silver gained 50.0 cents on volume of 62,253 contracts. Total open interest declined just 21 contracts. The March contract accounted for loss of 2902 of open interest. The open interest action on February 13 was most definitely a disappointment, and this is being reinforced on February 17 as March silver is trading 91.4 cents lower on the day. Silver is headed for a short and intermediate term sell signal.A short-term sell signal will be generated if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for February 17 of 16.885. An intermediate-term sell signal will be generated if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for February 17 of 16.649. Continue to stand aside.

British Pound:. On February 13, the March British pound generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

The March British pound lost 16 pips on light volume of 58,414 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,660 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that liquidation was very heavy on the modest decline. As this report is being compiled on February 17, the March pound is trading 43 pips lower. We have no recommendation.

Cocoa:

May cocoa advanced $12.00 on volume of 21,060 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,071 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 100% above average meaning that market participants were liquidating as prices advanced. The March contract accounted for loss of 694 of open interest and there were open interest declines in the forward months as well. Remarkably, cocoa has advanced every day (including February 17) since February 3. On February 12, May cocoa generated a short-term buy signal, and will generate an intermediate term buy signal on February 17.We strongly advise a stand aside posture due to the massive overbought condition of the market.

Coffee:

May coffee lost 95 ticks on heavy volume of 48,336 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4235 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 250% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest decline.The March contract accounted for loss of 7,990 of open interest. First notice day for March coffee is February 19, and based upon the action on February 17, coffee should continue to experience fireworks in the near term.

As this report is being compiled on February 17, May coffee has closed down sharply lower, off 7.55 cents. The March contract, made a daily low of 1.5450, which breaks below 1.5780, which has been the low since the week of July 7, 2014.Additionally, the March contract closed at 1.5695, below the July 7, 2014 low. The bull market in coffee has been postponed, but the fundamentals for the market have not changed. In the past, we’ve seen bullish fundamental setups that have experienced major technical declines. We will continue to monitor the market closely and look for clues for a possible turn around. We have been advising a stand aside posture ever since coffee generated a short term sell on January 21.