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Soybeans:

March soybeans gained 17.25 cents on volume of 219,945 contracts. Volume was the lowest since February 9 when March soybeans gained 5.00 cents on volume of 194,870 contracts and total open interest increased by 2,387. On February 17,total open interest increased by 2,762 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 8272 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 18, May soybeans are trading 14.00 cents lower on the day. May soybeans remain on the short and intermediate term sell signal. We have no recommendation.

Soybean meal: OIA recommends the liquidation of bearish positions originally recommended in the January 5 report. It appears that soybean meal and possibly soybeans may be on the verge of generating short-term buy signals.

March soybean meal gained $10.00 on volume of 94,707 contracts. Total open interest increased by 7,127 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 210% above average meaning that aggressive new buyers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices higher (342.80). The March contract lost 3,716 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).It appears that soybean meal may be on the verge of generating a short-term buy signal. The key pivot point for February 18 is 329.70 and thus far in trading the low has been 329.60. For a short-term buy signal to be generated the low of the day must be above the pivot point.

Corn:

March corn gained 2.25 cents on volume of 332,674 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,775 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% less than average. The March contract accounted for loss of 17,234 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 18, May corn is trading 5.75 cents lower on the day. We have no recommendation.

WTI crude oil:

March crude oil gained 75 cents on volume of 1,324,961 contracts.Total open interest declined by 38,890 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average meaning that market participants were liquidating as prices advanced to a high of $54.15, which is the highest print since February 3 when the March contract made a high of 54.24. As this report is being compiled on February 18, April WTI is trading $1.43 lower on the day. April WTI remains on a short term buy signal and an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Brent crude oil:

April Brent crude oil gained $1.01 on volume of 835,167 contracts. Total open interest increased by 8,676 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The April contract accounted for loss of 19,944 of open interest, which makes the total up an interest increase more impressive (bullish).Brent crude oil continues to exhibit much better price and open interest action than WTI. As this report is being compiled on February 18, April Brent crude oil is trading 1.66 lower on the day.April Brent crude oil remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Heating oil:

March heating oil gained 60 ticks on volume of 190,894 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,485 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 3,110. As this report is being compiled on February 18, April heating oil is trading 3.57 cents lower. April heating oil remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Gasoline:

March gasoline lost 3.61 cents on volume of 192,119 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,770 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 7,327 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 18, April gasoline is trading 2.28 cents lower on the day. April gasoline remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate-term sell signal.

Gold:

April gold lost $18.50 on volume of 188,745 contracts. Total open interest increased by a hefty 5,290 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% above average, meaning that new short-sellers were entering the market in a larger than normal numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (1203.30). As this report is being compiled on February 18, April gold has made another new low at 1197.20. On February 9, OIA announced that April gold generated a short-term sell signal, and it is on its way to generating an intermediate-term sell signal as well. Stand aside.

Silver:

March silver lost 91.6 cents on very heavy volume of 108,617 contracts.Total open interest increased by 4,178 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (16.26). As this report is being compiled on February 18, March silver is trading 9.3 cents lower and has made a daily high of 16.545, which means that March silver will generate a short term sell signal on February 18 if today’s high remains intact. It appears that an intermediate term sell signal is inevitable. Stand aside.

Cocoa: On February 17, May cocoa generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on February 12.

May cocoa advanced $11.00 on volume of 24,262 contracts. Total open interest increased by a sizable 1,240 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 100% above average. Meaning that aggressive buyers were entering the market and driving prices to a new high for the move (2944). Remarkably, the hefty open interest increase came on a day when the March contract lost 193 of open interest May -166, and December 2015 -223. The market remains massively overbought and has closed higher again on February 18. Do not chase this market.

Coffee:

May coffee lost 7.65 cents on extremely heavy volume of 73,488 contracts. Total open interest increased by 231 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 85% below average, however the March contract lost 7,832 of open interest. This means that there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the March decline of open interest.

This is negative, especially because the increase of open interest is occurring at the very low end of the trading range. In short, new market participants are willing to enter new short positions and leave themselves vulnerable to a potential counter trend rally, which could be a significant event. OIA has no idea where the bottom of this market is likely to be, however the fundamentals for the market remain bullish longer-term, and we fully expect to see coffee trade north of $2.00 in 2015.