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Soybeans:

May soybeans gained 8.25 cents on volume of 175,623 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 10,129 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 130% above average, meaning that large numbers of new buyers were entering the market and driving prices higher (9.97 1/2). The March contract lost 404 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on March 12, May soybeans are trading unchanged on the day after making a daily high of 9.97 1/2, which was yesterday’s high as well. The most recent high occurred on March 9 at 9.99.On March 6, May soybeans generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate-term sell signal. At this juncture, the market does not seem to want to move lower, but we think this is inevitable. Soybeans should be traded from the bearish side only.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal gained $2.30 on volume of 76,222 contract. Total open interest increased by 1,576 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20 percent below average. However, the March contract lost 424 of open interest, May -1707, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).As this report is being compiled on March 12, May soybean meal is trading 20 cents lower on the day.May soybean meal generated a short-term buy signal on February 19, but remains on intermediate-term sell signal. We have no recommendation.

Corn:

May corn gained 3.00 on volume of 234,073 contracts. Total open interest increased by 9,995 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning that new buyers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices fractionally higher. The March contract lost 1073 of open interest, May -1082, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on March 12, May corn is trading 3.25 cents lower. May corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal, and should be traded from the bearish side only.

Live cattle:

June live cattle advanced 67.5 points on volume of 67,614 contract. Total open interest increased by 711 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. However, the April contract lost 5,681 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased by more impressive (bullish).

As this report is being compiled on March 12, June live cattle was trading 30 points lower and has made a daily low of 1.45525, which is above our recommended exit point of 1.45250, made on March 10. The price action in live cattle has been disappointing ever since it generated a short-term buy signal on March 5. Basically, the market has moved sideways to lower and doesn’t seem to have the momentum to move significantly higher at this juncture. Hog prices are weak and the dollar is strong and this is weighing on cattle prices. However, if the market can make a low above OIA’s key pivot point of 1.46840, we think new highs would be in the offing.

WTI crude oil: On March 11, April and May WTI crude oil generated short-term sell signals, which reversed the February 13 short-term buy signals. Both contracts remain on intermediate term sell signals.

April WTI crude oil lost 12 cents on volume of 947,032 contracts. Total open interest increased by just 7,382 contracts. However, the April contract lost 34,070 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase by more impressive (bearish).

As this report is being compiled on March 12, April WTI is trading $1.14 lower and has made a daily low of 46.86, which is below the previous low for the move of 47.80 made on February 26. Clients should wait for a counter trend rally before initiating bearish positions.

Brent crude oil: On March 11, May Brent crude oil generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the February 3 short-term buy signal. May Brent remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

May Brent crude oil gained $1.01 on volume of 840,593 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,796 contracts, which is minuscule, but clearly bearish. The April contract accounted for loss of 39,522 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 12, May Brent is trading 76 cents lower. Like WTI, clients should wait for countertrend rally before initiating bearish positions now that May Brent is on a short-term sell signal.

Cotton: On March 11, May, generated a short and intermediate term sell signal. 

May cotton lost 54 points on volume 31,713 contracts.Total open interest declined by a massive 2,492 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 210% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline.As this report is being compiled on March 12, May cotton is trading 76 points higher.This is the first day of the countertrend rally, which usually occurs after the generation of a sell signal. The market may continue to rally for another day or two and if it does, this would be the opportune time to initiate bearish positions.

Cocoa: On March 11, May cocoa generated a short-term sell signal, and will generate an intermediate term sell signal on March 12.

May cocoa lost $58.00 volume of 33,786 contracts. Volume was the strongest since February 25 when cocoa lost 58.00 on volume of 33,990 contracts and total open interest increased by 4,525 contracts. On March 11, total open interest declined by massive 2,093 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 120% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline. The March contract lost 46 of open interest and will be off the board within a day or two. Although, cocoa is on sell signals, we prefer to stand aside in the event of a counter trend rally. The fundamentals are potentially bullish, and the market could turn on a dime.

Coffee:

May coffee lost 3.30 cents on volume of 30,196 contracts. Volume was the strongest since March 4 when May coffee advanced 7.80 cents on volume of 41,715 contracts and total open interest increased by 2,694 contracts.On March 11, total open interest increased by 1,784 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average meaning that aggressive new short sellers continue to enter the market in large numbers and attempt to drive off the prices lower.

It is important to note that ever since May coffee made its low for the move of 1.2880 on March 3, total open interest from March 4 through March 11 has increased by 9,652 contracts while May coffee has advanced 2.00 cents. This is bullish open interest action relative to the 2.00 cent advance between March 4 and March 11. In summary, short sellers during the past several days have accomplished nothing in the way of moving prices lower. This spells potential trouble for short sellers once prices begin to rise in earnest.