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Soybeans:

May soybeans lost 16.50 cents on heavier than normal volume of 200,077 contracts. Volume was the strongest since March 3 when May soybeans lost 1.25 cents on volume of 204,184 contracts and total open interest increased by 1,515. On March 13, total open interest increased by 7,376 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% above average, meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (9.72 1/2).

As this report is being compiled on March 16, May soybeans are trading 3.75  cents lower and have made a new low for the move of 9.67 1/2.On March 6, May soybeans generated a short-term sell signal and remains on intermediate term sell signal. It appears that a test of the contract low is in the offing. The market should be traded from the short side only.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $4.60 on volume of 62,951 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,337 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% above than average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline. As this report is being compiled on March 16, May soybean meal is trading 2.20 lower and has made a daily high of 328.80, which is 20 cents below OIA’s key pivot point for March 16 of 329.00. If the daily high remains intact for the rest of the session, May soybean will generate a short-term sell signal, which will reverse the February 19 short-term buy signal.We have no recommendation.

Corn:

May corn lost 8.00 cents on volume of 258,797 contracts. Remarkably, volume was nearly the same as the previous day when May corn lost 2.50 on volume of 258,870 contracts and total open interest increased by 1,500 contracts.On March 13, total open interest increased by massive 13,287 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 105% above average meaning that huge numbers of new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower (3.80 1/4). There was a total of 1,035 contract declines in four months, which makes the total open interest increase by more impressive (bearish).As this report is being compiled on March 16, May corn is trading 5.00 cents lower and has made a new low for the move of 3.75 1/2. Corn should be traded from the short side only. Corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Live cattle:

June live cattle lost 1.35 cents on volume of 55,244 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,406 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices lower (1.44050). The April contract accounted for a loss of 1,810 contracts, which makes the total open interest increased by more impressive (bearish).

On Friday, clients should have exited their bullish positions when the March 10 low of 1.45250 was penetrated. At this juncture, we recommend a sideline stance, and it is looking increasingly likely a short-term sell signal will be generated. June live cattle will generate a short-term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 16 of 1.43420. As this report is being compiled on March 16, June live cattle is trading 30 points lower, but has not taken out Friday’s low.For the rally to resume, June live cattle must make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point for March 16 of 1.45515. 

WTI crude oil:

April WTI crude oil lost $2.21 on volume of 941,445 contracts. Volume was the strongest cents March 11 went April WTI lost 12 cents on volume of 947,032 contracts and total open interest increased by 7,382. On March 13, total open interest increased by massive 46,624 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 100% above average, meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in heavy numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (44.75). The April contract lost 20,389 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).

On March 11, OIA announced that April and May WTI crude oil generated a short-term sell signal after being on a short-term buy signal since February 13. As this report is being compiled on March 16, April WTI is made a new contract low of 42.85, which is the lowest print since March 2009.

Brent crude oil: This will be our last report on Brent crude oil until we announce a signal change or see a trading opportunity.

May Brent crude oil lost $2.27 on volume of 759,157 contracts. Total open interest increased only 4,985 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average. However, the April contract accounted for loss of 32,116 contracts, which makes the minor increase of open interest more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on March 16, May Brent crude oil is trading $$1.60 lower on the day.On March 11, May Brent crude oil generated a short-term sell signal after being on a short-term buy signal since February 3.

Heating oil: On March 13 April and May heating oil generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the February 3 short-term buy signal. April and May heating oil remain on an intermediate-term sell signal.

April heating oil lost 6.61 cents on surprisingly light volume of 128,315 contracts. Total open interest declined by 7,044 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 120% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline. The April contract accounted for a loss of 6,191 of open interest.As this report is being compiled on March 16, April heating oil is trading 2.56 cents lower. Stand aside.

Gasoline: On March 13, April and May gasoline generated a short-term sell signal after being on a short-term buy signal since February 3. April and May gasoline remain on an intermediate-term sell signal.

April gasoline lost 4.72 cents on light volume of 139,480 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,914 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, however an open interest increase on a price decline of the magnitude seen on Friday is clearly bearish. The April contract lost 4,728 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase by more impressive (bearish).As this report is being compiled on March 16, April gasoline is trading 4.85 cents lower. Stand aside.

Coffee:

May lost 2.40 cents on surprisingly light volume of 20,315 contracts. Volume was the weakest since February 24 when May coffee gained 65 points on volume of 18,166 contracts and total open interest increased by 1,136.On March 13, total open interest declined by 947 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline. The total open interest decline was the first since February 27 when May coffee lost 5 ticks on volume of 40,919 contracts and total open interest declined by 286.

On Friday, the May contract made a low 1.2875, which is 5 ticks below the March 3 low of 1.2880. As this report is being compiled on March 16, May coffee has closed sharply higher, up 8.25 cents. Interestingly, May coffee did not penetrate Friday’s low, and there is a small gap (70 points) between the March 16 low and Friday’s close. It will be interesting to see what open interest did on March 16. Stand aside.