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Soybeans:

May soybeans lost 14.75 cents on heavier than normal volume of 193,638 contracts. Volume was the strongest since March 13 when May soybeans lost 16.50 cents on volume of 200,077 contracts and total open interest increased by 7,376 contracts. On March 17, total open interest increased by 12,344 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 150% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in heavy numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (9.53 1/2).There were open interest increases from May 2015 through August 2016 with the exception of the November contract which lost 1,054 of open interest.

For the past four days beginning on March 12 May soybeans have lost 38.25 cents while total open interest has increased 27,647 contracts. May soybean prices have declined for each of the past four days and open interest has increased on each day. On March 6, OIA announced that May soybeans generated a short-term sell signal. As this report is being compiled on March 18, May soybeans are trading 7.00 cents higher. Until the March 31 grain stocks and planting intentions report, soybeans should be traded from the short side only.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $6.20 volume of 98,932 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,336 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% above average mean that liquidation was heavy on the decline.The May contract lost 4,200 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 18, May soybean meal is trading 3.80 higher. On March 16 May soybean meal generated a short-term sell signal and remains on intermediate term sell signal.May soybean meal should be traded from the short side, but speculators should be mindful of the USDA report on March 31.

Corn:

May corn lost 8.00 cents on volume of 334,829 contract. Volume was the strongest since February 27 when May corn gained 4.75 cents on volume of 345,088 contracts and total open interest declined by 17,895. On March 17, Total open interest increased by a massive 35,957 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 310% above average meaning that huge numbers of new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices to a new low for the move (3.70). For the past four days beginning on March 12, total open interest has increased by 75,532 contracts while May corn has declined 20 cents. This is very bearish open interest action relative to the price decline.

As this report is being compiled on March 18, May corn is trading 1.25 cents lower and has made a new daily low of 3.67. We think that corn will continue to trade on the downside until we get close to the March 31 USDA report.

Live cattle:

June live cattle gained 50 points on volume of 44,082 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,322 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 105% above average meaning that new buyers were entering the market aggressively, but were only able to move prices fractionally higher.The April contract lost 2,567 of open interest.

For the past four sessions beginning on March 12 June live cattle declined by 1.45  cents while total open interest has increased 10,222 contracts. This is bearish open interest action relative to the price decline.On March 5, June live cattle generated a short-term buy signal and made a high of 1.47675 on March 9, then proceeded to trade sideways to lower. On March 18, June live cattle has taken out the March 9 high and making a new high for the move at 1.48400.The real test comes tomorrow to see whether June live cattle can make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point for March 18 of 1.45650. If it can accomplish this, the odds favor a continuation of the rally, and this could take to live cattle up to the next pivot point of 1.50375.

WTI crude oil:

April WTI crude oil lost 42 cents on total volume of 906,082 contracts. Total open interest declined by 15,765, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average. The April contract accounted for loss of 49,597 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 18, May WTI is trading 49 cents lower after making a new contract low of 44.03.On March 11, OIA announced that April and May WTI crude oil generated a short-term sell signal, and the market has fallen sharply ever since. According to the latest EIA report, crude oil stocks continue to build, and this only confirms the severity of the downtrend.

The Energy Information Administration announced that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 9.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 458.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.5 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 0.5 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels last week.

Natural gas:

April natural gas advanced 13.9 cents on volume of 412,833 contracts. Total open interest increased by 7,471 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average, however the April contract lost 16,268 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).As this report is being compiled on March 18, April natural gas is trading 4.5 cents higher and is trading at the highs of the day. April natural gas is getting very close to generating a short-term buy signal, and will do so if the low of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point for March 18 of 2.839. The low on March 18 has been 2.775. Stand aside.

Coffee:

May coffee gained 10 ticks on light volume of 19,577 contracts.Total open interest increased by 549 contracts, which relative to volume is average. There were open interest declines in three contract months totaling 108. As this report is being compiled on March 18, May coffee is trading 1.85 cents higher and has made a new high for the move at 1.4150, which is the highest print since March 9 when May coffee made a high of 1.4220. May coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.