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Soybeans:

May soybeans lost 18.00 cents on volume of 177,036 contracts.Total open interest declined by 1,144 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% below average.The March contract lost 4,310 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 3, May soybeans are trading 2.50 cents lower and have made a daily low of 10.02, which is the lowest print since 10.01 made on February 24. May soybeans remain on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate-term sell signal. We have no recommendation.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $8.90 on volume of 77,766 contracts. Total open interest declined by massive 4761 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline. The March contract lost 1,769 of open interest and there were open interest declines in the forward months to increase the total open interest decline. When prices fall, it is positive that open interest declines with price. As this report is being compiled on March 3, May soybean meal is trading $2.40 lower, -1.62% versus soybeans -0.76%. May soybeans will generate a short-term sell signal (which will reverse the short-term buy signal of February 19) if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 3 of 326.50.

Soybean oil: On March 2, May soybean oil generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

May soybean oil lost 12 points on volume of 85,287 contracts. Total open interest declined by a hefty 3,908 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest decline even though May soybean oil made a new high for the move at 33.50, which is the highest print since January 16 (33.58). The March contract lost 891 of open interest and there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to add to the total open interest decline. Recently, we’ve seen improved performance across the soybean complex, however OIA thinks this is temporary and that lower prices are in store once Brazilian soybeans begin moving on to the world market.

Corn:

May corn lost 5.25 cents on volume of 221,313 contracts. Total open interest increased by 4,115 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average. However, the March contract accounted for loss of 5,056 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on March 3, May corn is trading 2.25 cents higher and has made a low of 3.84 1/2, which takes out yesterday’s low of 3.86 1/2. We have no recommendation.

WTI crude oil:

April WTI crude oil lost 17 cents on volume of 955,240 contracts. Total open interest declined by 16,506 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average. The April contract lost 26,005 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 3, April WTI is trading 39 cents higher and has made a daily low of 49.45, which is considerably above yesterday’s low of 48.71 and the previous day’s low of 48.46. On February 13, April WT I generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal. A short-term sell signal will be generated if the daily high and the April contract is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 3 of 49.51. Stand aside.

Brent crude oil:

April Brent crude oil lost $3.04 on volume of 827,312 contracts. Total open interest increased by 12,414 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average, however an open interest increase on a price decline of the magnitude seen on March 2 is clearly bearish. The April contract lost 1,551 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 3, April Brent is trading $1.62 higher on the day and has made a daily high of 61.81, which is below yesterday’s 62.50.On February 3, April Brent crude oil generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Silver:

May silver lost 15.3 cents on volume of 29,870 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 2,348 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 210% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices lower. As this report is being compiled on March 3, May silver is trading 17.6 cents lower and has made a daily low of 16.07, which is below the previous print of 16.085 made on February 24.

On February 18, May silver generated a short-term sell signal, and for an intermediate-term sell signal to be generated, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for March 3 of 16.415. Stand aside.

Cocoa:

May cocoa lost $10.00 volume of 23,647 contracts. Total open interest increased again, this time by 2,136 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 250% above average meaning a battle ensued between buyers and sellers and sellers edged the market fractionally lower. The March contract accounted for loss of 97 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on March 3, May cocoa has made a new closing high of 3035 and a fractional new high for the move at 3038, which is $1.00 above the February 25 high. On February 12, May cocoa generated a short-term buy signal and generated an intermediate term buy signal on February 17.We continue to advise a stand aside posture: cocoa is becoming a very crowded trade.

Coffee:

May coffee lost 2.15 cents on volume of 26,892 contracts.Total open interest increased again, this time by 1,917 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 185% above average meaning that aggressive new short sellers continue to enter the market in large numbers and drive prices to a new lows (1.3795). The March contract lost 32 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on March 3, May coffee has fallen sharply, down 8.60 cents and has made a new low for the move of 1.2880, which is the lowest print since 1.3205 made on February 7, 2014. We are completely surprised by the speed and magnitude of the decline, and it appears that the next area of support will be at the January 2014 lows of 1.1100-1.1300.

Although we do not think coffee will test these lows, based upon market action during the past two weeks, it cannot be ruled out. The coffee market is controlled by speculative short-sellers who continue to add new short positions and will pay the piper when the market finally turns around. May coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.