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Soybeans:

May soybeans lost 3.00 cents on volume of 198,644 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 10,014 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 100% above average meaning that a battle ensued between buyers and sellers and sellers were able to edge the market lower. As this report is being compiled on March 26, May soybeans are trading 5.00 cents lower and have made a daily low of 9.72, which is the lowest print since 9.60 made on March 20. May soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal. We recommend a stand aside posture until the release of the March 31 USDA report.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $1.80 on volume of 76,816 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,671 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% above average meaning a battle ensued between buyers and sellers and sellers had the edge and were able to move the market slightly lower.The May contract lost 1,845 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 26, May soybean meal is trading 1.60 lower and is at the lows of the day. May soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside until after the release of the March 31 USDA report.

Corn:

May corn gained 1.75 cents on volume of 289,131 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,116 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. As this report is being compiled on March 26, May corn is trading 4.50 cents lower and has made a daily low of 3.89 1/4, which is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 26 of 3.92 3/8. In order for May corn to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above the pivot point. May corn remains on the short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside until after the release of the USDA report on March 31.

Chicago wheat:

May Chicago wheat lost 4.50 cents on volume of 72,851 contracts. Total open interest increased by massive 5,589 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 210% above average meaning that huge numbers of new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower (5.16).As this report is being compiled on March 25 May Chicago wheat is trading 16.25 cents lower and has made a daily low of 5.02 1/4.

On March 23, May Chicago wheat generated a short-term buy signal, and will generate a short-term sell signal if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 26 of 5.01 3/4. Ever since Chicago wheat generated a short-term buy signal, the open interest action has been very negative (open interest declines when prices advance and increases on price declines). Stand aside.

Kansas City wheat:

May Kansas City wheat lost 2.25 cents on volume of 21,286 contracts. Increased by a substantial 1,233 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average meaning that new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices lower. As this report is being compiled on March 26, May Kansas City wheat is trading 18.25 cents lower and has made a daily low of 5.43  3/4. On March 20, May Kansas City wheat generated a short-term buy signal, and it appears to be headed for a reversal. A short-term sell signal will be generated if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 26 of 5.37 1/2. Stand aside.

Live cattle: This will be our final report on live cattle until we announce a signal change or see a trading opportunity. June live cattle is on a short and intermediate term buy signal.

June live cattle lost 67.5 point some volume of 45,531 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,740 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower (1.51550). As this report is being compiled on March 26, June live cattle is trading 57.5 points lower, but has not broken below yesterday’s low.

WTI crude oil:

May WTI crude oil advanced $1.70 on volume of 702,989 contracts. Volume was the strongest since March 19 when May WTI lost $1.12 on volume of 731,792 contracts and total open interest declined by 13,134. On March 25, total open interest increased by 5,886 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% below average, but an open interest increase on a price advance of the magnitude seen yesterday is positive. The May contract loss 1,515 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on March 26, the May contract is trading 1.56 higher and has made a new high for the move of 52.48, the highest price since 52.44 made on March 9. This was made during the early morning hours of trading, and the market has sold off ever since. The reason given for the rapid advance is the conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Despite the sharp move higher, May WTI will not generate a short-term buy signal on March 26. Stand aside.

Gold:

June gold gained $6.60 on heavy volume of 290,306 contracts. Total open interest declined by massive 17,455 contracts, which was due to the massive liquidation in the April contract of 43,312 contracts because of impending first notice day. As this report is being compiled on March 26, June gold is trading 7.80 higher and has made a daily high 1220.40, which is the highest print since 1223.70 made on March 2.

While everyone is fairly bearish on gold, it is important to note that gold has made three major lows since November 2014. On November 7, June gold made a low of 1134.10 and a secondary one on December 1 of 1143.20. On March 17, June gold dipped below the December 1 low by 80 cents (1142.40).

In short, gold has had every opportunity to break below the November 7 low and has been unable to do so. Since November 7, the dollar has been extremely strong and the prevailing zeitgeist has been one of deflation and commodity deflation in particular yet the November 7 low has held like a rock.

For June gold to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for March 26 of 1197.40. The low on March 26 has been 1194.80.Stand aside.

Silver: If today’s low of 16.91 holds, May silver will generate an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on March 23.

May silver gained 1.7 cents on volume of 33,152 contracts. Total open interest declined by 589 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average, however this is the fifth day in a row in which silver prices have advanced and open interest has declined.

The remarkable aspect of silver trading is that price performance has been outstanding since March 19 and yet total open interest action has been extremely negative.As this report is being compiled on March 26, May silver is trading 12. 5 cents higher and has made a daily high of 17.405, which is the highest print since 17.435 made on February 17. The market is overdue for setback and it will be interesting to see how silver trades when it is in a corrective phase.

Coffee:

May coffee gained 2.65 cents on heavy volume of 39,394 contracts. Volume with the strongest since March 4 when 41,715 contracts were traded and May coffee advance 7.80 cents and open interest increased by 2,694 contracts. On March 25, total open interest increased by 570 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. However, the May contract lost 2,144 of open interest, which makes the more impressive (bullish).As this report is being compiled on March 26, May coffee is trading 50 points higher on the day and is selling off from the highs as it approaches the close. This was the pattern in yesterday’s trading as well. May coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

S&P 500 E mini:

The June S&P 500 E mini lost 31.25 points on volume of 1,778,993 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4,175. As this report is being compiled on March 26, the June E mini is trading 1.25 points higher and has made a daily high of 2058.75. On March 23, the June E mini generated a short-term buy signal, and it looks increasingly likely this is going to be reversed, on March 26. It is extremely rare to see a buy or sell signal reversed within a couple of days, and if this occurs on March 26, it is a very bearish development.

A short-term sell signal will be generated if the daily high on March 26 is below OIA’s key pivot point of 2065.30.