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Soybeans:

May soybeans lost 4.25 cents on volume of 176,639 contracts. Total open interest increased by 4,930 contracts, which relative to volume is  average, however an open interest increase on a price decline is bearish. The May contract lost 1689 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased by more impressive (bullish). During the past two days, May soybeans have lost 7.25 cents and total open interest increased by 14,944 contracts.

As this report is being compiled on March 27, May soybeans are trading 7.25 cents lower has made a daily low of 9.65, which is the lowest print since 9.60 made on March 20. May soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal and we recommend a stand aside posture until after the release of the March 31 USDA report.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $2.10 on volume of 75,365 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,282 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average meaning that liquidation was heavier than normal on the modest decline. The May contract made a low of  321.40, which is the lowest print since 318.60 made on March 20.May soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal and we recommend a stand aside posture until after the release of the March 31 USDA report.

Corn:

May corn lost 3.75 cents on volume of 291,083 contracts. Total open interest declined just 181 contracts, however the May contract lost 10,148 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to bring down total open interest decline negligible number. As this report is being compiled on March 27, May corn is trading 1.75 cents lower, and though it remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal, we recommend a stand aside posture until after the release of the March 31 USDA report.

Chicago wheat:

May Chicago wheat lost 19.75 cents on heavy volume of 130,167 contracts. Total open interest increased by massive 9,794 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 230% above average, meaning that huge numbers of new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices to a new low for the move (4.98 1/4. As this report is being compiled on March 27, May Chicago wheat is trading 8.50 higher and has not taken out yesterday’s low. Remarkably, May Chicago wheat continues to be on a short-term buy signal, and this will be reversed if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 27 of 5.01 3/4. Stand aside.

Kansas City wheat:

May Kansas City wheat lost 20.00 cents on volume of 30,105 contracts. Total open interest increased by 374 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The May contract lost 1,530 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).As this report is being compiled on March 27, May Kansas City wheat is trading 7.50 higher. May Kansas City wheat remains on a short-term buy signal, and for this to be reversed, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for March 27 of 5.37 1/2. Stand aside.

WTI crude oil:

May WTI crude oil gained $2.22 on very heavy volume of 1,004,482 contracts. Volume was the strongest since March 18 when May WTI advanced $1.46 on volume of 1,035,393 contracts and total open interest increased by 14,121. On March 26, total open interest declined by 5,340 contracts.The May contract lost 13,944 of open interest. The May contract made anew high for the move of 52.48, the highest price since 52.44 made on March 9. This was made during the early morning hours of trading,and since then has been sinking like a stone. As this report is being compiled on March 27, May WTI is trading 1.92 lower and has made a daily low of 49.73. The low in yesterday’s trading also was 48.73. May WTI remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Gold:

June gold gained $7.70 on huge volume of 372,090 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive and 17,733 contracts, and this was due to the large decline in the April contract of 44,303 contracts as it approaches first notice day. Yesterday, June gold made a high of 1220.40, and as this report is being compiled on March 27, June gold is trading 5.50 lower and has made a daily low of 1192.60, which means June gold will not generate a short-term buy signal on March 27.

Silver: On March 26, May silver generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on March 23.

May silver gained 14.00 cents on volume of 52,371 contracts. Total open interest declined again, this time by 629 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% less than average, but this is the sixth day in a row in which silver prices have advanced and open interest has declined.

From March 19 through March 26, May silver has advanced each day totaling $1.599 while total open interest has declined each day totaling 7,682 contracts.This is bearish open interest action relative to the price advance and tempers our bullish inclinations.

Dollar index:

The June dollar index gained 48.5 points on volume of 59,716 contracts.Volume with the lowest since March 17 when 45,065 contracts were traded and the June dollar index closed at 99.949. On March 26, total open interest declined by a hefty 1,971 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% above average meaning that liquidation was fairly heavy on the price advance. In our view, this indicates that the downside correction of the USDEUR trade has further to go. In order for the June dollar index to generate a short term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for March 27 of 97.161.

Coffee:

May coffee advanced 30 ticks on volume of 22,011 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 1.619 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 220% above average meaning a battle ensued between buyers and sellers and buyers were able to edge the market fractionally higher. As this report is being compiled on March 27, May coffee is trading 1.50 lower. The market continues to trade in a consolidation pattern, and we are waiting for coffee to generate a short-term buy signal. This will occur when the May contract makes a low above OIA’s key pivot point for March 27 of 1.4039. Until then, stand aside.

S&P 500 E mini: On March 26, the June S&P 500 E mini generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

The June S&P 500 E mini lost 5.25 points on volume of 1,843,619 contracts. Total open interest increased by 19,375 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. Yesterday was the fourth day in a row in which prices declined and from March 23 through March 26, the June S&P 500 E mini has lost 50.75 points, and yet the market has been unable to mount a rally. As this report is being compiled one hour before the close, the E mini has been unable to trade above yesterday’s close of 2058.75. The inability to rally is a distinct change in the market’s recent pattern and reveals a significant amount of internal weakness.

There are two characteristics that are unique to yesterday’s sell signal. First, it reversed the short term buy signal generated on March 23. This is unusual because OIA’s buy/sell signals are rarely reversed with in a few days. It happens, but not very often. Additionally, a multi-day reversal has never occurred in the S&P 500 E mini during the past four years.

Second, sell signals were generated in two different time frames, four days after the E mini approached its February 25 all-time high. This also is highly in usual. In our view, this signals the E mini is in a strong downtrend, and though the market should rally for a day or two, but after this we see lower prices ahead.