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The USDA will release its March 31 grain stocks and planting intentions report at noon EDT. We recommend that appropriate stops be in place if positions are being carried into the report. If positions show losses prior to the report, we recommend liquidating these.

Soybeans:

May soybeans lost 7.25 cents on volume of 155,547 contracts. Total open interest increased by 5,729 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% above average meaning that new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices lower (9.65), which is the lowest print since 9.60 made on March 20. As this report is being compiled on March 30, May soybeans are trading 6.75 cents higher. Do not enter new positions prior to the report.May soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $1.00 volume 63,106 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,785 contracts, which relative to volume is average. As this report is being compiled on March 30, May soybean meal is trading 4.30 higher. Do not enter new positions prior to the report.May soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Corn:

May corn lost 0.25 cents on volume of 239,929 contracts. Total open interest increased by 5,541 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average. As this report is being compiled on March 30, May corn is trading 2.50 higher. May corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Do not enter new positions prior to the report.

Chicago wheat:

May Chicago wheat gained 8.50 cents on volume of 92,736 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,024 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average, however, an open interest increase on a price advance in Chicago wheat is a rare event.The May contract lost 3,548 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on March 30, May Chicago wheat is trading 20.25 cents higher on the day. May Chicago wheat remains on a short term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Kansas City wheat:

May Kansas City wheat gained 10.0 cents on volume of 23,042 contracts. Total open interest increased by 836 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% above average, meaning that new buyers were entering the market and driving prices higher. The May contract lost 1551 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on March 30,May Kansas City wheat is trading 22.25 above yesterday’s close.May Kansas City wheat remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

WTI crude oil:

May that WTI crude oil lost $2.56 on volume of 645,061 contracts. Total open interest declined by 13,388 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The May contract lost 25,061 of open interest. As this report is being compiled March 30, May WTI is trading 46 cents lower and has made a daily low of 47.65, which is the lowest print since 46.67 made on March 24. May WTI remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Brent crude oil:

May Brent crude oil lost $2.78 on volume of 604,811 contracts. Total open interest declined just 2,704 contracts. The May contract lost 11,316 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 30, May Brent crude oil is trading 89 cents lower. May Brent remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Gold:

June gold lost $5.00 on volume of 329,654 contracts. Total open interest declined by 5,925 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% less than average.The April contract lost 46,450 of open interest and there was sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset a good portion of the loss in April. We consider this to be bearish open interest action.

As this report is being compiled on March 30, June gold is trading 15.80 lower and has made a daily low of 1182.20, which is the lowest print cents 1178.60 made on March 23. In the Weekend Wrap, we let clients know that both gold and silver had head and shoulders formations on the weekly chart, which is very bearish. June gold remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Silver:

May silver lost 7.1 cents on volume of 47,512 contracts. Total open interest declined by 743 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% less than average.The total open interest decline is the seventh in a row, and this does not bode well for higher prices ahead. As this report is being compiled on March 30 May silver is trading 40.4 cents lower.Though May silver remains on a short and intermediate term of buy signal, we recommend the stand aside posture due to the poor open interest action and the active head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart.

Yen: On March 27, the June yen generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal. The USDJPY cross generated a short term sell signal on the 27th.

The June Yen gained 11 pips on volume of 101,749 contracts. Total open interest declined by 972 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. As this report is being compiled on March 30, one day after the generation of the short-term buy signal, the June Yen is pulling back by 68 pips, which is to be expected after a buy signal is triggered. Possibly, the yen will set back for another day before it resumes its uptrend. For the buy signal to be reversed, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for March 30 of .8312. 

Coffee:

May coffee lost 2.05 cents on volume of 22,978 contracts. Total open interest declined just 66 contracts, however, the May contract lost 1,661 of open interest which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to whittle down total open interest to a negligible number. We consider this to be bearish. As this report is being compiled on March 30, May coffee is trading 5.25 cents lower on the day. We have no idea when this market is going to turn around, but when it does we see a sharp move to the upside. May coffee remains on the short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.