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Soybeans:

May soybeans lost 18.25 cents on light volume of 166,782 contracts. Volume was lower than March 2 when May soybeans lost 18.00 cents on volume of 177,036 contracts and total open interest declined by 1,144 contracts. Additionally, volume was the lowest since February 2 when May soybeans lost 1.50 on volume of 159,227 contracts and total open interest increased by 8,633 contracts. On March 4, total open interest declined 1,001 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% less than average. The March contract accounted for loss of 3,119 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on March 5, May soybeans are trading 7.25 cents lower and have made a new low for the move of 9.85 3/4.May soybeans will generate a short-term sell signal if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 5 of 9.89 1/4. We have no recommendation.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $5.70 on volume of 59,665 contracts. Total open interest increased by 889 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. The March contract lost 1,275 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).As this report is being compiled on March 5, May soybean meal is trading 60 cents lower. In order for May soybean meal to generate a short-term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for March 5 of 326.50. We have no recommendation.

Corn:

May corn lost 1.50 cents on volume of 195,122 contracts.Total open interest declined by a hefty 7,059 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% above average mean liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest decline. The March contract lost 2,949 of open interest, May -4,834.As this report is being compiled on March 5, May corn is trading 1.50 higher on the day. May corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. We have no recommendation.

Live cattle: June live cattle will generate a short-term buy signal on March 5.  We recommend initiating bullish positions on any setback.

June live cattle gained 2.65 cents on volume of 54,262 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 2,211 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average, meaning that new buyers were aggressively entering the market and driving prices to a new high for the move (1.46675), which is the highest print since 1.46975 made on February 9.

Additionally, the April contract lost 2,035 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase by more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on March 5, June live cattle is trading 50 points lower on the day and has made a daily low of 1.45 300, which is above OIA’s key pivot point of 1.45 230, which means if today’s low holds, June live cattle will generate a short-term buy signal.

For the past three days, June live cattle has been acting in a bullish fashion with respect to price and open interest. In short, open interest increases on price advances and declines as prices fall. This is further confirmation of the strength of the trend.

WTI crude oil:

April WTI crude oil gained $1.01 on heavy volume of 1,119,360 contracts. Volume was the strongest since February 19 when April WTI lost 99 cents on volume of 1,136,634 contracts and total open interest declined by 7,684 contracts. On March 4, total open interest increased by 7,572 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% below average. The April contract accounted for loss of 18,457, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).

As this report is being compiled on March 5, the April contract is trading 71 cents lower has made a daily high of 52.40, which is the highest print since 52.49 made on February 20.As we pointed out in the February 27 report, we said the April contract could rally to a high of 52.47, a major OIA pivot point, but thought it was unlikely a low would be made above the pivot point, which would indicate the rally would continue.

From the February 27 report:

“On February 13, April WTI generated a short-term buy signal, and has not reversed the signal despite moving to a low of 47.80 on February 26. Conceivably, the April contract could rally to a high of 52.47, which is a key pivot point of OIA, but we think it is highly unlikely that a daily low will be made above the pivot point, which would be required for a continuation of the rally. Stand aside.”

Brent crude oil:

April Brent crude oil lost 47 cents on volume of 829,695 contract. Total open interest increased by 16,250 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, however the April contract lost 16,575 open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).As this report is being compiled on March 5, April Brent crude oil is trading 19 cents lower on the day. Stand aside.

Silver: On March 4, May silver generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on February 18.

This will be our final report on silver until we announce a signal change or see a trading opportunity.

May silver lost 13.8 cents on volume of 28,947 contracts.Total open interest increased by 501 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 30% below average, however the open interest increase on a price decline is bearish. The March contract lost 139 open interest, which makes the minor increase of open interest more impressive (bearish). March 4 marked the fourth day in a row in which prices declined and open interest increased. This confirms the downtrend. Stand aside.

Cocoa:

May cocoa lost $15.00 on light volume of 17,163 contract. Volume fell from March 3 when May cocoa advanced $16.00 on volume of 19,313 contracts and total open interest increased by 2,833 contracts.On March 4, Total open interest increased by 363 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The March through July 2015 contracts lost a total of 193 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 5, May cocoa is trading $10.00 lower. Stand aside.

Coffee:

May coffee gained 7.80 cents on volume of 41,715 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 2,694 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 150% above average meaning that aggressive new buyers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a high of 1.3855. The open interest increase in yesterday’s trading spells potential trouble for short sellers, because it indicates they are unwilling to liquidate on sharp rallies.

This is not to say the market will not go lower, because we do expect a test of the March 3 low of 1.2880, rather it is to point out the intransigence of short-sellers, who at some point will become distressed buyers when coffee begins to rally in earnest. As this report is being compiled on March 5, May coffee has close down 2.50 cents. May coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.