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Soybeans: May soybeans likely will generate a short-term sell signal on March 6. It remains on intermediate term sell signal.

May soybeans lost 8.50 cents on volume of 169,570 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4557 contracts, which relative to volume is average.The March through August contracts lost total of 4641 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 6, May soybeans are trading 8.25 lower and trading at the lows of the day. May soybeans will generate a short-term sell signal if today’s high of 9.88 1/4 holds.This will reverse the short-term buy signal of February 20. After the generation of the sell signal, the market should rally for a day or two and this would be the opportune time to initiate bearish positions.

Soybean meal:

May soybean meal lost $1.90 volume 63,354 contracts.Total open interest increased by 3,266 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 105% above average meaning that large numbers of short sellers were entering the market and driving prices to a new low for the move (325.00). The March contract lost 610 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased by impressive (bearish).As this report is being compiled on March 6, May soybean meal is trading near unchanged on the day. In order for May soybean meal to generate a short-term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for March 6 of 326.40.

Corn:

May corn gained 1.00 cent on volume of 206,276 contracts.Total open interest declined by 3,068 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 1,621 of open interest, May -5,780. As this report is being compiled on March 6, May corn is trading 6.00 cents lower.May corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. We have no recommendation.

Live cattle: On March 5, June live cattle generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

June live cattle lost 30 points on total volume of 59,751 contracts. Total open interest increased by 465 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average. However, the April contract lost 4,475 open interest, which makes the total open interest increase by more impressive (bullish). Usually, after the generation of a short-term buy signal, the market has a tendency to pull back from 1-3 days and this is the opportunity to initiate bullish positions. We recommend buying any setback.

WTI crude oil:

April WTI crude oil lost 77 cents on volume of 848,730 contracts.Total open interest declined by 5,805, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average. The April contract accounted for a loss of 15,547 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 6, April WTI is trading $1.32 lower and is trading at the lows of the day. In order for April WTI to generate a short term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for March 6 of 49.57. Remarkably, after generating a short-term buy signal on February 13, the market has been unable to generate a short term sell signal, despite WTI’s dismal performance. Stand aside.

Brent crude oil:

April Brent crude oil lost 7 cents on volume of 779,167 contracts. Total open interest increased by 18,741 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 5% below average. The April contract accounted for loss of 15,388 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). For the past two days, April Brent has lost 54 cents while total open interest has increased by 34,991 contracts. This is bearish open interest action relative to the two day price decline.

Additionally on March 3, April Brent advanced $1.48, but open interest declined by 5,706 contracts. On March 2, the April contract lost $3.04 and open interest increased by 12,414 contracts. In short, total open interest has been acting in a very bearish fashion relative to price advances/declines for the past four sessions. For Brent to continue its advance, it must make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point for March 6 of $61.03. A short-term sell signal will be generated if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 6 of 58.30. Stand aside.

Cocoa:

May cocoa lost $11.00 when volume of 20,598 contracts.Total open interest increased by 1,003 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that buyers and sellers engaged in a battle and sellers were able to edge the market slightly lower. The March contract lost 50 of open interest, July -130. As this report is being compiled on March 6, May cocoa is trading sharply lower, down $57.00. We’ve been cautioning clients to remain on the sidelines. May cocoa remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.

Coffee:

May coffee lost 2.50 cents on volume of 21,885 contracts. Total open interest increased by 720 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% above average, meaning that new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower. As this report is being compiled on March 6, May coffee has closed sharply higher. The market is now doing to the short sellers what it did to the longs.We still believe that coffee has much work to do in terms of backing and filling before the uptrend resumes in earnest. The cross currents of a very weak Brazilian real against the US dollar, combined with some favorable weather will likely keep the market on the defensive. However, in the intermediate and longer term we see higher prices.