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Corn:

December corn advanced 4.00 cents on volume of 420,841 contracts. Volume was the strongest since November 18 when the December contract gained 0.25 cents on volume of 521,302 contracts and total open interest declined by 9,177. On November 23, total open interest declined by a massive 22,230 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 105% above average, but this was due to the sharp loss in December, which shed 49,715 of open interest as the December contract approaches first notice day. As this report is being compiled on November 24, the December contract is trading lower, down 2.50 cents and trading on the lows of the day. December corn remains on short and intermediate term sell signals. We have no recommendation.

Soybeans:

January soybeans advanced 6.75 cents on volume of 233,308 contracts. Volume slightly exceeded that of November 18 when the January contract lost 6.25 cents on volume of 232,203 contracts and total open interest increased by 10,201. On November 23, total open interest increased by 4,658 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The January contract accounted for loss of 560 of open interest.

Yesterday, the January contract made a new contract low of 8.44 1/4, which is the lowest print since 8.43 made during March 2009. As this report is being compiled on November 24, the January contract is trading 2.50 cents higher and has made a daily low of 8.61 1/4. Soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil remain on short and intermediate term sell signals. We have no recommendation.

Sugar:

March sugar advanced 11 points on light volume of 65,636 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,069 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average. As this report is being compiled on November 24, the March contract is trading 13 points lower after making a new high for the move of 15.78. March sugar remains on short and intermediate term buy signals, and we expect the advance to continue, although we are cautious about how far the rally can continue due to the deflationary cycle engulfing commodities.

Cocoa:

March cocoa lost $62.00 on surprisingly light volume of 23,638 contracts. Volume declined from November 20 when the March contract lost $9.00 after making a new contract high of $3,420 and then sharply reversing on volume of 25,482 contracts while total open interest increased by 480. On November 23, total open interest increased by 1,190, which relative to volume is approximately 100% above average..

From November 16 through November 23, total open interest has increased by 10,680 contracts, while the March contract has declined $52.00. Trade selling has taken control of the market, which is short circuiting the rally for now.

As this report is being compiled on November 24, the March contract is trading 5.00 above yesterday’s close and has made a low of 3,312, which is above yesterday’s print of 3,301. The continuing massive open interest build on rallies and declines is concerning, and we advise a stand aside posture. March cocoa remains on short and intermediate term buy signals.

WTI crude oil:

January WTI crude oil lost 15 cents on volume of 849,749 contracts. Volume increased substantially from November 20 when the January contract advanced 18 cents on volume of 764,305 contracts and total open interest increased by 10,172. On November 23, total open interest declined just 2,190 contracts. The December contract lost 2,327 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on November 24, the January contract is trading $1.37 higher, or +3.23% on increased tensions in the Middle East. For the January contract to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for November 24 of $44.92 and the market is trading approximately $1.80 below the pivot point.

The January contract would have to stage a fairly substantial rally to generate a short-term buy signal, which cannot be ruled out if tensions continue to increase in the middle east and Saudi Arabia begins to change its tune with respect to over supplying the world with oil. January WTI crude oil remains on short and intermediate term sell signals. We have no recommendation.

Dollar index:

The December dollar index advanced 23.1 points on volume of 30,259 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,039 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average. This is the first positive open interest increase that we have seen on the price advance since November 18 when the December contract gained a fractional 4.5 points on volume of 34,406 contracts and total open interest increased by 703.

As this report is being compiled on November 24, the December contract is trading 19.5 points lower, and has not taken out yesterday’s high for the move of 100.065. The December contract remains on short and intermediate term buy signals. We have no recommendation.

S&P 500 E-mini:

The December S&P 500 E-mini lost 4.50 points on light pre-holiday volume of 984,754 contracts. Total open interest increased by 13,430 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average, but November 23 was the third day in a row in which open interest relative to price advances and declines acted in a bearish fashion.

As this report is being compiled on November 24, the December contract is trading 1.50 points higher after making a daily low of 2065.50, which may have been in reaction to the Turks shooting down a Russian fighter plane. This is the lowest print since 2043.00 made on November 18.

Although, the E-mini is likely to continue its rally, it must make a daily low above OIA’s pivot point of 2085.75 for it to continue. The inability of the December contract to make a daily low of the above the pivot point will increase the likelihood the market is near its top. The employment report will be released on December 4, and mid December will be when the Federal Reserve decides whether or not to raise interest rates. The December contract remains on short and intermediate term buy signals. We will be monitoring the market to evaluate where and when short call positions can be initiated.