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Corn:

December corn advanced 1.25 cents on volume of 209,157 contracts. Total open interest increased by 4,527 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 15% below average, and it appears a battle ensued between buyers and sellers on October 16 and buyers were able to edge the market slightly higher. The December contract lost 3,097 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in December and increase total open interest. Open interest increased in the March 2016 through December 2017 contracts.

As this report is being compiled on October 19, the December contract is trading 3.00 cents lower and has made a low of 3.73 1/4, which is above Friday’s print of 3.72 1/2. On October 15, December corn generated a short-term sell signal, and we have yet to see the usual counter trend rally that accompanies a sell signal. The market appears to be in a very weak set up and as the COT report showed, managed money liquidated their long positions in the most recent reporting period. New contract lows appear to be on the horizon.We have no recommendation.

Chicago wheat: December Chicago wheat will generate a short-term sell signal on October 19 provided the daily high remains below OIA’s key pivot point for October 19 of 4.93 5/8.

December Chicago wheat lost 10.25 cents on volume of 132,999 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 10,723 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 230% above average meaning huge numbers of new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower (4.89 3/4).

As this report is being compiled on October 19, the December contract is trading 5.75 cents lower and has made a new low for the move of 4.85 3/4. We have no recommendation.

Soybeans:

November soybeans lost 7.00 cents on volume of 256,645 contracts. Total open interest declined by 5,379 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The November contract accounted for loss of 12,822 of open interest and first notice day for November is approximately two weeks away. The May 2016 contract lost 1,124.

As this report is being compiled on October 19, the November contract is trading 2.50 lower and has made a new low for the move of 8.94 1/4, which is below Friday’s print of 8.97 1/4. November and January soybeans remain on short term buy signals, but intermediate term sell signals. It appears that the market has run out of steam, and unless there is a new catalyst, we see lower prices ahead, especially because soybean oil continues to weaken. We have no recommendation.

Live cattle: December live cattle will generate a short-term buy signal on October 19 provided the daily low remains above OIA’s key pivot point for October 19 of 1.38850.

December live cattle advanced 2.875 cents on volume of 53,513 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,156, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, but October and December lost a total of 2,359 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in the two delivery months and increase total open interest. The performance on Friday was outstanding. It also confirms that short sellers are not liquidating en masse.

As this report is being compiled on October 19, the December contract has exploded higher, up 2.40 cents and has made a new high for the move that 1.42300, which is the highest print since 1.42100 made on September 16. Currently, the December contract is trading 10.62% above its contract low made on October 1.

In yesterday’s weekend report, we called your attention to the likelihood the cattle market had turned. Once the short-term buy signal is generated, the market should pullback from 1-3 days and this will be the opportunity to initiate bullish positions. We advise against chasing this market. Wait for the pullback.

Coffee:

December coffee lost 7.85 cents on heavy volume of 44,505 contracts.Volume was the strongest since August 20 when 51,288 contracts were traded and the December contract closed at 1.3245. On October 16, total open interest increased by a massive 3,170 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 185% above average meaning aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices lower (1.2505).

As this report is being compiled on October 19, the December contract is trading 1.65 cents lower and has made a new low for the move of 1.2350. December coffee will generate a short-term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for October 19 of 1.2375 and an intermediate term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for October 19 of 1.2545. We have no recommendation.

WTI crude oil:

December WTI crude oil advanced 85 cents on volume of 703,254 contracts. Volume fell sharply from October 15 when the December contract gained 23 cents on volume of 893,410 contracts and total open interest declined by 21,833. On October 16, total open interest increased just 2,310, which relative to volume is approximately 85% below average. The November contract accounted for loss of 28,870 of open interest, which means there was barely enough open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in November and increase total open interest slightly.

Friday’s performance was unimpressive to say the least, and the market has not had the strength to resume the uptrend. For this to occur, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for October 19 of $47.84. A short-term sell signal will be generated if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for October 19 of 45.91.

As this report is being compiled on October 19, the December contract is trading $1.14 lower and has made a daily low of 46.35, which is the lowest print since 45.79 made on October 15. We have no recommendation.

Euro:

The December euro lost 8 pips on light volume of 145,492 contracts. Total open interest increased by 403 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 80% below average. As this report is being compiled on October 19, the December contract is trading 59 pips lower and has made a daily low of 1.1314, which is the lowest print since 1.1278 made on October 9.

We think today’s low is likely to be the low for the move and the trend is higher. Although, we are not terribly bullish on the euro, do not trade it from the short side.The moving averages are in a bullish set up with the 20 day moving average above the 50 and the 50 day above the 200 day moving average. Also, the dollar index is in a bearish set up and displays consistent bearish open interest action relative to price advances and declines.

Canadian dollar:

The December Canadian dollar lost 40 pips on volume of 46,380 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 2,014 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 70% above average meaning aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower (77.25), which is slightly above the October 15 print of 77.21.

As this report is being compiled on October 19, the December contract is trading 56 pips lower and trading on the lows of the day. Today is election day for a new prime minister in Canada, and it is expected the liberal wing will be the victor. This is perceived as being bearish for the Canadian dollar. The December contract remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. We have no recommendation at this juncture.

Platinum: January platinum will generate an intermediate term buy signal on October 19 after generating a short-term buy signal on October 12.