Bloomberg:{OIAR<GO>}

WTI crude:

June WTI crude oil gained 36 cents on volume of 1,088,488 contracts. Total open interest declined by 8,753 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% below average, but a total open interest decline on Friday’s advance continues the negative open interest action that we have seen for the past couple of weeks. The June contract accounted for a loss of 19,326 of open interest.

The COT report released on Friday revealed that managed money liquidated 47,948 of their long positions and added 24,207 to their short positions. Commercial interests added 6,926 to their long positions and liquidated only 1,317 of their short positions. As of the April 25 tabulation date, managed money was long WTI crude oil by ratio of 3.26:1, down sharply from the previous week of 4.98:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 4.59:1.

As this report is being compiled on May 1, the June contract is trading lower, down 63 cents on light volume and has made a daily low of 48.59, which is below Friday’s print of 48.80 and is the lowest since 48.20, the low for the move made on April 27. On April 24, OIA announced that June WTI crude oil generated a short term sell signal and at the time had already been on an intermediate term sell signal. We have no recommendation.

Corn: Although, July corn is rallying sharply on May 1, it will Not generate a short term buy signal on May 1.

July corn lost 2.75 cents on light volume of 353,109 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,995 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The May contract accounted for a loss of 13,984 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on May 1, the July contract is rocketing higher, up 12.00 cents or +3.27% and has made a new high for the move of 3.79, which is the highest print since 3.78 3/4 made on April 17.

The COT report released on Friday revealed that managed money added 9,389 to their long positions and also added 29,372 to their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 5,638 of their long positions and also liquidated 40,022 of their short positions. As of the April 25 tabulation date, managed money was short corn by ratio of 1.92:1, up from the previous week of 1.86:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 1.74:1.

The massive short position held by managed money will provide fuel for the upside move, which we have been telling clients to expect. Though today’s move is strong, a short term buy signal will not occur. For a short term buy signal to be generated, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for May 1 of 3.73 1/2. We have recommended for clients to remain on the sidelines until the buy signal. After the buy signal, corn should have a pullback and or consolidation for a couple of days before resuming the uptrend.

Chicago wheat: July Chicago wheat will generate a short term buy signal on May 1, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal. Tomorrow, we will have a complete report on today’s activity. Currently the July contract is trading sharply higher, up 23.50 or +5.44%.

Kansas City Wheat: July Kansas City wheat will generate a short term buy signal on May 1, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal. Tomorrow, we will have a complete report on today’s activity. Currently, the July contract is trading sharply higher, up 28.50 or +6.52%

Soybeans: July soybeans will not generate a short term buy signal on May 1. The short term buy signal will be generated if the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for May 1 of 9.64 3/8. The low thus far in trading has been 9.58 1/2. Tomorrow, we will have a complete report on today’s activity. Currently, the July contract is trading 17.25 cents above yesterday’s close or +1.83%.

Soybean meal: July soybean meal will not generate a short term buy signal on May 1. The short term buy signal will be generated if the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for May 1 of $317.50. The low thus far in trading has been 315.60. Tomorrow, we will have a complete report on today’s activity.

Soybean oil: July soybean oil will not generate a short term buy signal on May 1. For this to occur, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point of 32.14 and the low thus far in trading is 31.75. Soybean oil is the weak link in trading on May 1, up 1.07%.

AUD/CAD: On April 28,  AUD/CAD  generated short and intermediate term buy signals. We have no recommendation.

Gold: On May 1, June New York gold is trading $11.60 lower, but will not generate a short term sell signal on May 1. This will likely come in tomorrow’s trading if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for May 1 of 1269.10.Tomorrow, we will have a complete report on today’s activity.

Copper: July New York copper is getting close to generating a short term buy signal and this will occur if the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for May 1 of $2.6335. The low on May 1 is 2.5940.

Mexican peso:

The June Mexican peso advanced 53 pips on April 28 on volume of 38,173 contracts. Volume fell substantially from the day before, April 27 when the June contract gained 50 pips on volume of 59,795 contracts and total open interest increased by 454. On April 28, total open interest increased by 1,091 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 5% above average.

The COT report released on Friday revealed that leverage funds liquidated 5,026 of their long positions and also liquidated 6,913 of their short positions. As of the April 25 tabulation date, leverage funds were long the peso by a ratio of 2.61:1, up from the previous week of 2.29:1 and a substantial increase from the ratio two weeks ago of 1.51:1.

We think the peso is a potentially a good short position, but much of this will depend on the extent of the rally tomorrow. On April 27, the June Mexican peso generated a short term sell signal and since then rallied on April 28 and now on May 1, which is typical after the generation of a short term sell signal. The rally should begin to falter either today or tomorrow at the latest and today’s volume in the June contract of 11,157 indicates a lack of  participation.

For a new short term buy signal to occur, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for May 1 of .05305 and the current low in today’s trading has been .05261 and high of .05293. We think the risk on the short side is rather low considering the substantial net long position of leverage funds, which means there are far fewer short-sellers to power the market higher.

To be conservative, we recommend waiting for another day to see the extent to which the rally continues, or not. Tomorrow. should be the last day of the advance if the peso is not going to reverse the sell signal.