For Bloomberg access: {OIAR }

Soybeans:

November soybeans gained 9.25 cents on volume of 146,052 contracts. Volume shrank from August 13 when November beans lost 12.75 on volume of 149,282 contracts and total open interest increased by 6,982 contracts.On August 14, total open interest declined by 456 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 85% below average. The August contract lost 182 of open interest, September -639, November -1460, January 2015 -255. As this report is being compiled on August 15, November soybeans are trading 3.75 cents lower, but have not taken out the contract low made yesterday of 10.38 3/4. The market looks weak and has been unable to mount any kind of sustained rally. We see lower prices ahead, however initiating bearish positions at this juncture during the critical month of August seems like a bad idea. Stand aside.

Corn:

December corn advanced 3.75 cents on volume of 221,922 contracts. Volume declined substantially from August 13 when December corn advanced 0.75 cent on volume of 301,810 contracts and total open interest declined by 7,420 contracts. On August 14, total open interest declined by 8,448 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% above average meaning that large numbers of longs and shorts were liquidating as prices moved higher.The September contract accounted for loss of 14,534 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on August 15, December corn is trading 4.75 cents higher and has made a new high for the move at $3.79 3/4, which is the highest print since July 18 (3.89). It is conceivable that corn may generate a short-term buy signal, but we would view this as temporary.If the daily low in the December contract is above OIA’s key pivot point of $3.75 7/8, December corn will generate a short-term buy signal.The fundamentals for corn are bearish, however, exports for the 2014-2015 season have been robust. Additionally, as we pointed out in the August 12 report, the contract low of 3.58 made on very heavy volume appears to be an interim low. Stand aside.

From the August 12 report:

“December Corn made a new contract low at 3.58 on very heavy volume on the 15 minute chart of 38,892 contracts.The market then proceeded to rally for the rest of the session and closed modestly higher. The contract low on very heavy volume has to be respected as a possible interim low.”

Chicago wheat:

December Chicago wheat lost 7.25 cents on volume of 96,035 contracts. Volume declined dramatically from August 13 when December wheat lost 5.75 on volume of 145,816 contracts and open interest increased by 4,546. On August 14, total open interest declined by 1,867 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The September contract accounted for loss of 7,542 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on August 15, December Chicago wheat is trading 12.25 cents higher while the Kansas City contract is trading +13.25 on a confrontation between Ukraine and Russia. On August 13, December Chicago wheat generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Live cattle:

October live cattle advanced 80 points on volume of 41,661 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 1,967 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest advance. This is bearish open interest action relative to the price advance. The August contract lost 1,351 of open interest, October – 1386. As this report is being compiled on August 15, October cattle is trading 20 points higher on the day. October cattle has not yet generated an intermediate term sell signal, but generated a short-term sell signal on August 7. Stand aside.

WTI crude oil:

October WTI crude oil lost $2.66 on very heavy volume of 825,127 contracts.Volume was the strongest since July 17 when September WTI advanced $1.99 on volume of 1,135,765 contracts and total open interest declined by 24,414 contracts. On August 14, total open interest increased by 12,559 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. The September contract lost 23,079 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). The market was flirting with the lows of the day on August 14 when the former Prime Minister of Iraq Maliki announced his resignation and threw his support to his former opponent.This caused October WTI to rapidly decline and make a new low for the move of $93.85, which is the lowest print since 93.72 made on March 17, 2014. As this report is being compiled, on August 15, October WTI is trading 69 cents higher on the day.October WTI remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Heating oil:

October heating oil lost 8.10 cents on volume of 182,532 contracts.Volume was the strongest since July 15 when 182,726 contracts were traded and October heating oil closed at $2.8813. On August 14, total open interest declined by 602 contracts, which is minimal and dramatically below average. The September contract accounted for loss of 9,112 of open interest. The very light decline of open interest is a surprise because it shows the dominant action was liquidation, not new shorts entering the market. As of the latest COT report, managed money was short heating oil by ratio of 1.62:1. Additionally, though October heating oil is quite away from its contract low of 2.5637, it broke below the low of 2.8310 made the week of November 4, 2013. October heating oil remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Gasoline:

October gasoline lost 8.63 cents on volume of 157,676 contracts.Volume was the strongest since July 23 when 166,280 contracts were traded and October gasoline close that $2.6917. On August 14, total open interest increased by 3,529 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average. The September contract accounted for loss of 4,254 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). On August 14, October gasoline made a new low for the move of 2.5377, which is the lowest print since the week of February 3, 2014 (2.5248). October gasoline remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Brent crude oil:

October Brent crude oil lost $2.99 on volume of 740,078 contracts. Interestingly, volume was dramatically lower than August 12 when October Brent lost 1.51 on volume of 900,257 contracts and total open interest declined by 27,545. On August 14, total open interest increased only 1,794 contracts, which is a surprise considering the magnitude of the decline. The September contract lost 9,413 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase a bit more impressive (bearish), but still very modest. The performance of Brent year to date has been trailing WTI, and the low made in the October contract of 101.91 yesterday is the lowest print on the weekly continuation chart since $101.63 made the week of July 1, 2013.The reluctance of new short sellers at the lows indicates that Brent may be getting close to a bottom. Brent remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Natural gas:

October natural gas advanced 6.8 cents on fairly heavy volume of 352,409 contracts. Volume was below that of August 13 when October natural gas lost 13.9 cents on volume of 416,413 contracts and total open interest increased by 6,121 contracts. On August 14, total open interest increased by 4,405 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The September contract accounted for loss of 17,783 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). However, as this report is being compiled on August 15, October natural gas has reversed and is now trading 12.6 cents lower on the day. We have been cautioning clients to remain on the sidelines until such time that the October contract makes its daily low above OIA’s key pivot point of $4.011. Continue to stand aside.

Copper: On August 14, September and December copper generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on August 6.

September copper lost 2.10 cents on volume of 60,524 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,223 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The September contract accounted for loss of 4,707 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on August 15, . September copper has closed 1.20 higher on the day.Stand aside.

Gold:

December gold advanced $1.00 on light volume of 110,086 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1996 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. As this report is being compiled on August 15, December gold is trading $9.60 lower after making a low at 1293.00, which is the lowest print since 1288.50 made on August 6. As we have pointed out in previous reports, gold is holding up much better than silver, but it is unable to make a daily low above our pivot point (1316.00). Until this occurs, gold will trade in a sideways to lower. Gold remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Silver: On August 14, September and December silver generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on July 28.

September silver advanced 6.1 cents on volume of 47,110 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,322 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The September contract accounted for loss of 1,641 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on August 15, September silver has closed at 19.525, down 38.1 cents, and the lowest close since 19.213 made on June 11. Stand aside.

Coffee:

September coffee lost 1.15 cents on volume of 33,187 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 1,440 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% above average meaning that liquidation was substantial on the decline. The September contract accounted for loss of 4,198 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on August 15, September coffee has closed at 1.8875, up 4.65 cents on low volume. We are awaiting the release of the Commitments Of Traders report this afternoon and hopefully managed money has shed some of its long positions. It now appears, that the low of 1.7940 made on August 8 is at the very least an interim low, and possibly a major low.We think prices are headed higher, and possibly much higher than anyone now believes. We see coffee testing the April 23 high of $2.2060 in the month(s) ahead.