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Soybeans:

March soybeans lost 5.25 cents on heavier than normal volume of 195,503 contracts. Volume was the strongest since December 18 when soybeans advanced 8.00 cents on volume of 227,050 contracts and total open interest declined by 11,906 contracts. On December 29, total open interest declined by 12,063 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average meaning liquidation was heavy on the decline. The January contract accounted for loss of 19,921 of open interest.

As this report is being compiled on December 30, March soybeans are trading 1.00 cent higher and have made a daily low of 10.46, which is exactly the low in yesterday’s trading. For March soybeans to continue their advance, the March contract must make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point, which for December 30 is 10.50. For an intermediate term buy signal to be generated, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for December 30 of 10.52 1/4. Stand aside.

Soybean meal:

March soybean meal lost $3.50 on volume of 82,127 contracts. Total open interest declined by 7,570 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 280% above average meaning that liquidation was very heavy on the modest decline. The January contract accounted for loss of 9,404 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on December 30, March soybean meal is trading unchanged on the day. In order for March soybean meal to continue its advance, it has to make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point. The pivot point for December 30 is 358.70 and the low for the day has been 357.10. March soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal.Stand aside.

Soybean oil:

March soybean oil advanced 34 points on volume of 92,481 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,066 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% less than average, but the January contract lost 5357 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bullish).

For the past 2 days, March soybean oil prices have advanced and total open interest has increased. This is bullish open interest action relative to the two day price advance. Note the January contract lost a significant amount of open interest yet there were open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in January. This was not the case for soybeans and soybean meal. As this report is being compiled on December 30, March soybean oil is trading 15 points higher and has made a daily high of 33.19, which is below yesterday’s high of 33.62.In order for March soybean oil to generate a short-term buy signal, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point of 32.72. The low on December 30 has been 32.69. Stand aside.

Corn:

March corn lost 2.00 cents on volume of 125,801 contracts. Total open interest increased only 24 contracts. The March contract accounted for loss of 2,654 of open interest. Yesterday, March corn made a new high for the move at 4.17, and sold off during the session to close lower on the day. As this report is being compiled on December 30, March corn is trading 4.25 cents lower and has made a daily low of 4.07 1/4, which is the lowest print since 4.05 3/4 made on December 26. March corn remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.

Chicago wheat:

March Chicago wheat advanced 4.75 cents on volume of 39,935 contracts. Total open interest declined by 617 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average, however an open interest decline on a price advance is negative. The March contract lost 419 of open interest, May 2015-672. As this report is being compiled on December 30, March Chicago wheat is trading 11.50 lower and is made a daily low of 6.03. March Chicago wheat will generate a short-term sell signal if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for December 30 of 5.94 1/8. For the rally to resume, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for December 30 of 6.14 1/8. Stand aside.

Live cattle:

February live cattle advanced 2.525 cents on volume of 45,326 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,571 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% above average. Making the total open interest increase more impressive was the fact that the December contract lost 922 of open interest and February 2015 -198. As this report is being compiled on December 30, February live cattle is trading unchanged on the day after making a new high for the move at 1.66525. We think there is a good chance that today’s high will be the high for the move. If we are wrong and live cattle continues to advance, it must make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point for December 30 of 1.66080. February live cattle remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.We have no recommendation.

WTI crude oil:

February WTI crude oil lost $1.12 on volume of 422,215 contracts. Total open interest increased by a hefty 12,742 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average. The February contract gained 5153 of open interest. Yesterday, February WTI made a new contract low of 52.90 and as this report is being compiled on December 30, February WTI is trading 2 cents higher after making a new contract low of 52.70. Stand aside.

Natural gas:

February natural gas advanced 16.6 cents on volume of 219,724 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 11,159 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 100% above average meaning that aggressive new buyers were entering the market and driving prices higher. The January contract accounted for loss of 6,645 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). However, the story is vastly different on December 30 as February natural gas is trading 10.8 cents lower and has made a daily low of 3.079, which is above the contract low of 3.007 made on December 26. On December 1, OIA announced that natural gas generated a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Gold:

February gold lost $13.40 on volume of 93,020 contracts. Total open interest declined by a substantial 4,850 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 105% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline. This is healthy open interest action relative to the price decline. As this report is being compiled on December 30, February gold is trading $21.70 higher on the day and has made a daily high of 1210.90, which is the highest print since December 18 (1213.90).

Remarkably, February gold has maintained its short-term buy signal status, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal. The market action is choppy, but it appears unlikely February gold will revisit its November 7 contract low of 1132.00 anytime soon. In order for February gold to resume a rally in earnest, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for December 30 of 1203.90. Stand aside.

Cocoa:

March cocoa advanced $23.00 on volume of 13,909 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 1,592 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 320% above average meaning a battle ensued between buyers and sellers and buyers had the edge. We are increasingly concerned about massive open interest increases when prices move only fractionally higher. This continues to reinforce our idea that there is trade selling at the upper end of the range.

Additionally, March cocoa has been unable to generate an intermediate term buy signal. In order for this to occur, the low the day in the March contract has to be above OIA’s key pivot point for December 30 of 2993. On December 8, March cocoa generated a short-term buy signal. If long, make sure protective sell stops are in place.

Coffee:

March coffee lost 3.45 cents on volume of 13,595 contracts. Total open interest increased by 336 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The March contract accounted for loss of 56 of open interest, December 2015 – 113, which makes the open interest increase more impressive (bearish). On October 23, March coffee generated a short-term sell signal and an intermediate term sell signal on November 5. Stand aside.