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Soybeans:

March soybeans lost 9.50 cents on heavy volume of 329,703 contracts. Volume was the strongest since February 3 when March soybeans advanced 27.50 cents on volume of 325,985 contracts and total open interest increased by 5,261 contracts. On February 10, total open interest increased by 5,003 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. However, the March contract lost 18,901 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on February 11, March soybeans are trading 8.00 cents higher. Soybeans should be traded from the short side due to it being on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean Meal:

March soybean meal lost $2.70 on volume of 118,412 contracts. Total open interest declined by 5,027 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average, meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices to a new low for the move (326.00). The March contract accounted for loss of 9,676 contracts, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report as this report is being compiled on February 11, March soybean meal is trading 2.10 higher. We expect soybean meal to break below the January 20 print of 321.00, which has been the low in the current bear market. Continue to hold bearish positions recommended in the January 5 report. March soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Corn:

March corn lost 3.25 cents on volume of 423,782 contracts. Total open interest increased by 7,666 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average. However, the March contract lost 20,219 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).As this report is being compiled on February 11, March corn is trading 0.50 cents lower. March corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal and should be traded from the short side.

WTI crude oil:

March WTI crude oil lost $2.91 on volume of 1,091,280 contracts. Remarkably, total open interest declined only 102 contracts. The March contract accounted for loss of 53,325 contracts. As this report is being compiled after the release of the EIA report, March WTI is trading $1.02 cents lower after making a daily low of 48.05, which is the lowest print since 47.36 made on February 5. As we have pointed out in previous reports, March WTI has been unable to generate a short-term buy signal, even though its sisters are on short-term buy signals.

The Energy Information Administration announced that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 417.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 2.3 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels last week.

Brent crude oil:

April Brent crude oil lost $1.84 on light volume of 763,057 contracts. Total open interest declined by 12,972 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 30% less than average. The March contract accounted for loss of 29,940 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 11, April Brent is trading 1.25 lower on the day. April Brent crude oil remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal.

Heating Oil:

March heating oil lost 4.02 cents on volume of 165,291 contracts. Total open interest increased by 887 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 10,344 of open interest, which makes the minor increase of open interest more impressive (bearish). As this report has been compiled on February 11, March heating oil is trading 1.41 cents lower. March heating oil remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate-term sell signal.

Gasoline:

March gasoline lost 2.59 cents on volume of 152,470 contracts. Total open interest declined just seven contracts. The March contract accounted for loss of 9,401 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 11, March gasoline is trading 67 ticks lower. March gasoline remains on a short term by signal, but in intermediate term sell signal.

Gold:

April gold lost $9.30 on volume of 104,456 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,215 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. As this report is being compiled on February 11, April gold has made a new low for the move at 1218.20 and is trading $10.40 lower on the day. On February 9, April gold generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal. Ever since the generation of the sell signal, we have recommended a sideline stance.

Silver:

March silver lost 19.7 cents on volume of 51,250 contracts. Total open interest increased by 800 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. However,the March contract lost 3,110 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).

During the past two days when silver prices have declined, open interest has increased. We consider this to be a major negative because it indicates that speculative longs are not liquidating. This class of trader will add pressure to the market as prices continue to decline. Remarkably, March silver remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal.For March silver to generate a short-term buy signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for February 11 of $16.921. We recommend a sideline stance at this juncture.

Cotton: On February 10, May cotton generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on February 4

May cotton gained 21 points on volume of 58,493 contracts. Total open interest declined by 733 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 10,092 of open interest and there was sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to whittle down total open interest significantly below average.The market is overbought and has not had its typical 1-3 day pullback after the generation of buy signals and therefore we recommend a stand aside posture.

10 Year Treasury Note: On February 10, the March 10 year treasury note generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal.

The March 10 year treasury note lost nine points on volume of 1,278,481 contract.Total open interest increased by just 3,828 contracts. As this report is being compiled on February 11, the March 10 year note is trading two points higher and has made daily high of 128-190, which is slightly above yesterday’s high of 128-180.

Coffee:

May coffee lost 8.15 cents very heavy volume of 69,623 contracts. Volume was the strongest since February 19, 2014 when 82,819 contracts were traded and May coffee closed at 1.7895. On February 10, total  open interest increased by 1,520 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 15% below average. However, the March contract accounted for loss of 6,833 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). The extreme bearishness shown by yesterday’s open interest increase is not justified by fundamentals longer-term. However, May coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal, and we recommend a stand aside posture until such time as a buy signal is generated.