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Soybeans:

March soybeans gained 6.00 cents on volume of 280,706 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2217 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% below average. The March contract lost 26,230 of open interest, which makes the total open interest is more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on February 13, March soybeans are trading 12.50 cents higher and have made daily high of 9.97 3/4. This is slightly below the February 3 high of 9.99, which is the recommended exit point for bearish positions. The minor increase of open interest in yesterday’s trading is a change from trading on February 11 when March soybeans gained 8.75 and total open interest declined by 18,525 contracts, which is bearish.

In short, the performance of soybeans during the past two days has been unimpressive. If clients are stopped out of bearish positions, we will look for another opportunity to re–initiate bearish positions. March soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean Meal:

March soybean meal gained 90 cents on volume of 95,390 contracts. Total open interest increased by just 16 contracts. The March contract accounted for loss of 9,384 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 13, March soybean meal is trading $4.10 higher. Maintain bearish positions recommended in the January 5 report and exit these upon penetration of the February 3 high 344.70.

Corn:

March corn lost 2.75 cents on volume of 355,133 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,821 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average. The March contract lost 30,567 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on February 13, March corn is trading 4.75 cents higher, and has not taken out yesterday’s low of 3.81 1/4. In our view, corn should be traded from the short side and the February 9 high of 3.91 3/4 can be used as an exit point for bearish positions. March corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

WTI crude oil: On February 13, March and April WTI crude oil will generate short term buy signals, and remain on intermediate term sell signals.

March WTI crude oil gained $2.37 on very heavy volume of 1,342,467 contracts. Volume was slightly below the record high volume for 2014 and 2015 of 1,348,890 contracts made on February 3 when March WTI advanced $3.48 and total open interest increase by 13,271 contracts.On February 12, total open interest declined by 4422 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average.

However, the March contract accounted for loss of 45,300 of  open interest, and there was sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to bring the total open interest number dramatically below average. As this report is being compiled on February 13, March WTI is trading $1.90 higher and has made daily high of 53.43, which is below the previous high of 53.99 made on February 9 and the high for the move of 54.24 made on February 3.Stand aside.

Brent crude oil:

April Brent crude oil gained $3.36 on volume of 969,696 contracts. Total open interest increased by 19,749 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. However, the March contract lost 6,201 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).Note the difference in the open interest action between WTI and Brent.

This is the second day in a row in which open interest action for Brent has been bullish, but bearish for WTI. As this report is being compiled on February 13, April Brent is trading $2.17 above yesterday’s close and has made a new high for the move at 61.77. On February 3, OIA announced that Brent crude oil generated a short-term buy signal, however it continues to be on an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Heating Oil:

March heating oil gained 9.96 cents on very heavy volume of 242,551 contracts. Volume was the strongest since March heating oil generated a short-term buy signal on February 3. On February 12, total open interest declined just 18 contracts. The March contract accounted for loss of 11,681 of open interest, and there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset most of this decline.As this report is being compiled on February 13, heating oil has again rocketed higher, up by 5.96 cents and has made a new high for the move  of 1.9821. Stand aside.

Gasoline:

March gasoline gained 5.23 cents on heavy volume of 212,282 contract. Volume with the strongest since March gasoline generated a short-term buy signal on February 3. On February 12,increased by 1354 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 70% below average. The March contract lost 11,249 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on February 13, March gasoline is trading 1.58 cents higher and has made a new high for the move out 1.6367, which takes out the previous high of 1.6260 made on February 3.Stand aside.

Gold:

April gold gained $1.10 on volume of 122,082 contracts.Total open interest declined by 2964 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average. As this report is being compiled on February 13, April gold is trading8.90 higher and has made a daily high of 1234.90, which is the highest print since 1238.70 made on February 11. It has been rumored that India’s Prime Minister is going to propose reducing the 10% import tax on gold on February 28. This could be a possible game changer as India is the largest buyer of gold on the world market. April gold remains on a short-term sell signal, but an intermediate term buy signal. We recommend a sideline stance until such time as gold generates a short term buy signal.

Silver:

March silver gained 3.3 cents on volume of 52,155 contract. Total open interest increased by 1,702, which relative to volume is approximately 35% above average. The March contract lost 2,207 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bullish). For the past several days, we have commented that silver’s relative strength compared to gold has been outstanding and it continues to be the leader of the precious metals. This is certainly borne out in trading on February 13 as March silver is trading 54.1 cents higher, or +3.19% versus gold trading 0.75% higher on the day. March silver remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. In previous reports, we’ve cautioned clients to stand aside in silver until gold generates a short term buy signal.

Cocoa: On February 12, May cocoa generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on intermediate term sell signal.

May cocoa gained $35.00 on volume of 46,808 contracts. Total open interest increased by 743 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% below average. However, the March contract lost 5125 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).The market has advanced for several days without a pullback, and is well overdue for correction. Now that cocoa is on a short-term buy signal, it should experience a correction lasting 1-3 days, and this is the opportunity to initiate bullish positions. Until then, stand aside.

Coffee:

May coffee gained 5.15 cents on very heavy volume of 66,048 contracts.Volume was the strongest since February 10 when coffee lost 8.15 cents on volume of 69,623 contracts and total open interest increased by 1,528.On February 12, total open interest increased by 579 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% below average. However, the March contract accounted for loss of 8,933 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).As this report is being compiled on February 13, May coffee has closed at 1.6650, down 95 ticks from yesterday’s close. Although we are very bullish coffee in the intermediate term, the market is facing cross currents due to a very weak Brazilian real. However, exports have been brisk, and we expect this will eventually become the catalyst for much higher prices. May coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.