For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

Soybeans:

March soybeans lost 1.50 cents on volume of 159,227 contracts. Total interest increased by a massive 8,633 contracts, which relative the volume is approximately 120% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices fractionally lower. The market was unable to take out the January 30 low of 9.55. As this report is being compiled on February 3, March soybeans are trading 24.75 cents higher on the day. The market is having one of its technical rallies, which is due to the sharp decline in the dollar. Most other commodities with the exception of gold are rallying on February 3. On January 2, March soybeans generated a short-term sell signal and has been on an intermediate term sell signal. In tomorrow’s report, we will provide guidance regarding the initiation of new bearish positions. Managed money assumed a net short position in the latest COT report for the first time in many months and the rally will chase out many new shorts, which will relieve some of the upward momentum.

Soybean meal:

March soybean meal lost $2.00 on volume of 59,891 contracts. Total open interest increased by 212 contracts, which relative to the volume is approximately 85% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 2,695 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 3, March soybean meal is trading 10.90 higher on low volume and has made a daily high of 344.70 which is the highest print since January 13 (344.90). In the January 5 report, OIA recommended the initiation of bearish positions and we continue to recommend holding these, but caution clients to have appropriate stop loss protection.On January 2, March soybean meal generated a short-term sell signal and an intermediate term sell signal on January 16.

Corn:

March corn lost 0.25 cents on volume of 265,012 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 8,738 contacts, which relative to the volume is approximately 35% above average, mean that there was a battle between buyers and sellers and sellers were able to edge the market fractionally lower. The March contract accounted for loss of 3,784 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on February 3, March corn is trading 13.75 cents higher and has made a daily high up 3.88, which is the highest print since 3.88 1/4 made on January 26. On January 14, March corn generated a short-term sell signal and an intermediate term sell signal was generated on January 29. Although, we are bearish on corn, we are much more bearish on soybeans and the soybean complex in general and prefer to leave corn alone at this juncture.

WTI crude oil:

March WTI crude oil advanced $1.33 on huge volume of 1,041,507 contracts.Volume was the strongest since January 15 when March WTI lost $2.23 on volume of 1,321,981 contracts and total open interest declined by 16,795 contracts. On February 2, total open interest declined by 4,278 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 11,138 of open interest, which means there were insufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in the March contract. During the past two days,March WTI has advanced $5.04, but total open interest has increased only 7,507 contracts. This is a an abysmal increase, and indicates that much of the trading activity is intra-day and market participants are unwilling to make commitments and hold them overnight.

In order for March WTI to generate a short-term buy signal, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for February 3 of 51.83. If March WTI is unable to generate a short-term buy signal, the market will likely trade sideways to lower. We recommend a stand aside posture and will be evaluating the market for a spot to initiate new bearish positions.

Brent crude oil: On February 3, March Brent crude oil will generate a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

March Brent crude oil advanced 1.76 on total volume of 1,202,084 contracts. Total open interest increased just 1622 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 31,608 of open interest. On January 30, March Brent crude advanced $3.86 on volume of 970,249 contracts and total open interest increased by 17,795 contracts. Relative to volume, the open interest increase was 25% below average.The March contract lost 22,664 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bullish). In short, the open interest stats for Brent are better than WTI, but certainly not terribly impressive. Stand aside

Gasoline: On February 3, March gasoline will generate a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

March gasoline advanced 6.58 cents on volume of 169,204 contract. Total open interest declined by 2,989 contracts, which relative the volume is approximately 30% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 23,090 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 3, March gasoline is 7.54 cents higher on the day. Stand aside.

Heating Oil: On February 3, March heating oil will generate a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

March heating oil advanced 5.67 cents on volume of 162,094 contract. Total open interest declined by 5054 contracts, which relative the volume is approximately 20% above average meaning that liquidation was above normal as prices advanced to their highest level since January 5. The March contract accounted for loss of 7546 contracts. Stand aside.

Natural Gas:

March natural gas closed unchanged on volume of 228,535 contract. Total open interest increased by 2,315 contracts, which relative the volume is approximately 50% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 326 of open interest. Yesterday, March natural gas made a new contract low of 2.608, and as this report is being compiled on February 3, March natural gas is trading 3.43% higher, or 9.2 cents above yesterday’s close. Most commodities are in a rally mode, and the sharply lower dollar is giving natural gas a lift as well.

Gold:

April gold lost $2.30 on volume of 126,199 contracts. Total open interest declined by 303 contract, which is minuscule and dramatically below average. The February contract accounted for loss of 675 open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 3, April gold is trading 16.90 lower despite a sharply lower dollar index. According to be most recent COT report, managed money as long gold by the highest ratio seen in 2014 and 2015. The move higher is going to be rocky, and setbacks are buying opportunities. On December 11, OIA announced that gold generated a short term by signal and an intermediate term by signal was generated on January 13. We recommend use of options to mitigate risk.

Silver:

March silver gained 4.3 cents on volume of 42,311 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1139 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The March contract accounted for loss of 1,896 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on February 3, March silver is  trading 14.9 cents higher while gold is trading lower on the day. March, silver has been the out performer in the precious metals complex. On January 13, March silver generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal was generated on January 20. Setbacks are buying opportunities.

Coffee:

March coffee advanced 55 ticks on volume 33,087 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,621 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest advance. The March contract accounted for loss of 5,192 of open interest. On February 3, coffee is one of the few commodities that is not rallying with with the rest of the market and trading 1.25 cents lower on the day. March coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Sugar: On February 2, March sugar generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the short term by signal at January 16. On January 27, March sugar generated an intermediate term sell signal.

March sugar lost 57 points on huge volume of 201,428 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 17,882 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 250% above average mean that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move of 14.10, which is three ticks above the contract low of 14.07. Stand aside.