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Soybeans:

March soybeans advanced 9.25 cents on volume of 172,391 contracts. Total open interest increased by 5982 contracts, which relative the volume is approximately 40% above average. The March contract lost 5,445 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more  impressive (bullish). For the past three trading sessions, price and open interest action have been acting in a bullish congruent fashion. In short, open interest increases on prices advances and it declines with prices.

As this report is being compiled on February 6, March soybeans are trading 8.00 cents lower. Additionally, March soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Rallies should be sold and we recommend using the penetration of the February 3 high of 9.99 as an exit point for bearish positions.

Soybean Meal:

March soybean meal lost $1.30 on volume of 80,743 contracts.Total open interest declined by 1,270 contracts, which relative to the volume is approximately 35% below average. The March contract accounted for a loss of 6,618 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 6, March soybean meal is trading 2.10 lower. In the report of January 5, we recommended the initiation of bearish positions and these should continue to be held, however we recommend using the penetration of the February 3 high of 344.70 as an exit point.

Corn:

March corn advanced 1.75 cents on volume of 247,065 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,676 contracts, which relative volume is approximately 50% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 9,835 open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on February 6, March corn is trading 4.50 lower. Rallies should be sold, and we recommend using the penetration of the February 3 high of 3.88 1/2 as an exit point. On January 14, March corn generated a short-term sell signal and in intermediate term sell signal was generated on January 29.

WTI crude oil: For March WTI to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for February 6 of 51.75. If this does not occur, March WTI will trade sideways to lower.

March WTI crude oil advanced $2.03 on volume of 1,229,272 contracts. Volume increased from February 4 when the March contract lost $4.60 on total volume of 1,147,288 contracts and total open interest increased by 24,044 contract.On February 5, total open interest increased by 17,577 contracts, which relative the volume is approximately 40% less than average. The March contract accounted for loss of 12,178 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).

The open interest increase on February 5 was the strongest for any day of the recent rally. In short, it appears that market participants are becoming more friendly to the market as prices advance. This increases the likelihood of a short-term buy signal. As this report is being compiled on February 6, March WTI crude oil is trading 88 cents above yesterday’s close and has made a daily high of 53.16. The March contract has taken out the highs of February 4-5, but not the print of 54.24 made on February 3. Stand aside.

Brent crude oil: In the report of February 3, OIA announced that March Brent crude oil generated a short-term buy signal. It remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

March Brent crude oil advanced $2.41 on volume of 1,003,959 contracts. Volume declined from February 4 when March Brent lost $3.75 on volume of 1,063,374 contracts and total open interest increased by 9,487 contracts. On February 5, total open interest increased by 12,549 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% less than average. The March contract accounted for loss of 22,534 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 6, March Brent is trading 93 cents higher and has taken out the February 3 high of 59.00, which has been the highest print thus far in the rally until today. Stand aside.

Heating Oil: In the report of February 3, OIA announced that March heating oil generated a short-term buy signal. It  remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

March heating oil advanced 3.93 cents on volume of 168,661 contracts. Total open interest increased by 7,460 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that aggressive new buyers were entering the market and driving prices higher. The March contract accounted for loss of 1,736 of open interest.

The open interest increase of February 5 is the first on a price advance since the rally began on January 30.This is potentially bad news for managed money shorts who have substantial short positions in heating oil. As this report is being compiled on February 6, March heating oil is trading 4.53 cents higher and has taken out the highs of February 4-5. Stand aside.

Gasoline: In the report of February 3, OIA announced that March gasoline generated a short-term buy signal. It remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

March gasoline advanced 4.31 cents on volume of 156,597 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,552 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average.The March contract accounted for loss of 3,461 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bullish).As this report is being compiled on February 6, March gasoline is trading 3.67 cents higher and has taken out the February 5 high of 1.5600, but not the print of 1.5935 made on February 4.

Gold:

April gold lost $1.80 on light volume of 119,489 contracts. Total open interest increased by just 10 contracts. The big story on February 6 is the terrific employment report, which has caused a massive dollar rally and consequently sharp losses in the precious metals. As this report is being compiled on February 6, April gold is trading $28.20 lower and has made a daily low of 1228.20. The 10 year treasury note is trading sharply lower as well.

In order for April gold to generate a short term sell signal, which would reverse the December 11 short term by signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for February 6 of $$1245.50.The problem with gold is the very large net long position held by managed money, which is the largest of 2014 and 2015 as of the most recent report. This large long position is exerting selling pressure on the market.We advise a cautious stance. It will be healthy to see a large decline of open interest. This would indicate that the market is shaking out weak longs.

Silver:

March silver lost 19.9 cents on volume of 49,201 contracts. Total open interest declined by a substantial 3,292 contracts, which relative the volume is approximately 160% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline. The March contract account for loss of 3,878 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on February 6, March silver has closed at $16.694, which is down sharply from yesterday’s close. In order for March silver to generate a short-term sell signal, which would reverse the short term by signal of January 13, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for February 6 of $16.948.

Coffee:

March coffee lost 15 ticks on volume of 27,579 contracts.Total open interest increased by a massive 1,967 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately a massive 185% above average, meaning there was a major battle between buyers and sellers and sellers were able to edge the market fractionally lower. As this report is being compiled on February 6, March coffee has closed at 1.6685, up 2.05 cents. This is the highest close since 1.6730 made on January 28. March coffee remains on the short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.