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Soybeans:

March soybeans advanced 1.50 cents on volume of 186,952 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 10,226 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 120% above average meaning there was a battle between buyers and sellers and buyers were able to move the market fractionally higher by the close. There were open interest increases in the March 2015 through September 2015 contracts. As this report is being compiled on January 22, March soybeans are trading 5.25 cents lower, but have not taken out the low for the move of 9.72 1/4 made on January 20. On January 2, March soybeans generated a short-term sell signal and remain on an intermediate term sell signal. We have no recommendation.

Soybean meal:

March soybean meal advanced $4.00 on volume of 88,272 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,404 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The March contract accounted for loss of 1,230 of open interest, July 2015 -618.As this report is being compiled on January 22, March soybean meal is trading 60 cents lower after making a high of 335.80, which is above yesterday’s high of 331.70.

On January 2, March soybean meal generated a short-term sell signal and an intermediate term sell signal on January 16. In the January 5 report, we recommended the initiation of bearish positions and these should continue to be held. We think the market is headed lower. Be sure to have stops in place, whether mental or actual in order to protect profits.

Soybean oil: March soybean oil will generate an intermediate term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for January 22 of 32.73. A short-term sell signal will be generated if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for January 22 of 32.20

March soybean oil lost 43 points on volume of 98,581 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,891 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The March contract lost 2,458 of open interest, August 2015 -255. January 21 was the 2nd day in a row in which soybean oil prices declined and open interest increased. For example, during January 20 and 21,Is March soybean oil fell 98 points and total open interest increased 2,781 during the two-day period.

It would’ve been healthy to see open interest decline especially since there was a very large build of open interest on the advance. The new longs initiated on the advance will become new sellers. As this report is being compiled on January 22, March soybean oil is trading 37 points lower and has made a new low for the move at 31.90, which is the lowest print since 31.88 made on December 19. We have recommended a stand aside posture in soybean oil despite the short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.

Corn:

March corn lost 2.25 cents on volume of 185,346 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,726 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 6,188 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on January 22, March corn is trading 1.75 cents lower and has made a daily low of 3.83 1/4, which is below yesterday’s low, but above 3.82 1/4 made on January 20.

On January 14, March corn generated a short-term sell signal, but remains on an intermediate term buy signal. Corn has done an admirable job of holding up despite the weakness in the bean complex and wheat. Eventually, we think it will succumb to an intermediate term sell signal. For this to occur, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for January 22 of 3.79 3/8.We have no recommendation.

WTI crude oil:

March WTI crude oil advanced $1.31 on volume of 665,883 contracts. Remarkably, volume was the weakest since January 2 when WTI lost 58 cents on volume of 446,248 contracts and total open interest increased by 6,298 contracts. As weak as the volume was, the open interest increase was unbelievably strong. On January 21, total open interest increased by a massive 36,846 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average. Normally, we would view the massive increase of open interest as bullish, but we think new buyers were attempting to take a bottom in the market. The low volume shows that market participants were in short supply.

As this report is being compiled on January 22 after the release of the EIA stats, which showed a massive stock build of 10.1 million barrels from the previous week, March WTI is trading $1.53 lower and has made a daily low of $46.03, which is the lowest print since 45.65 made on January 14. New contract lows appear to be inevitable.

The Energy Information Administration announced that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 10.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 397.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week, and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 3.6 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels last week.

Natural gas:

March natural gas advanced 12.0 cents on volume of 465,785 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,894 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% below average. The February contract lost 16,625 of open interest. As this report is being compiled after the release of the EIA stats for natural gas, March natural gas is trading 14.8 cents lower and has made a new contract low of 2.762.Natural gas remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

The Energy Information Administration announced that working gas in storage was 2,637 Bcf as of Friday, January 16, 2015, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 216 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 199 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 153 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,790 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 75 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 118 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 72 Bcf below the 5-year average of 975 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 82 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 7 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 16 Bcf. At 2,637 Bcf.

Gold:

February gold lost 50 cents on volume of 242,837 contracts. Total open interest increased by 6,866 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The February contract accounted for loss of 5,306 of open interest. As this report is being compiled after the ECB meeting, February gold is trading $8.40 higher and has made a daily high of 1307.80, which is slightly above yesterday’s high of 1307.00. The market remains overbought, but gold does not appear it wants to correct at this juncture. Maintain bullish positions that were entered at significantly lower levels. Gold remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal.

Silver:

March silver advanced 23.7 cents on volume of 61,775 contracts. Total open interest increased by 551 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. For the past 2 days beginning on January 20, silver has advanced 44.3 cents however, total open interest has declined 463 contracts. This is most definitely negative open interest action relative to the sizable two day advance.

It is true that managed money was significantly more bearish on silver than gold, and this may explain the reluctance of new buyers to make commitments. As this report is being compiled on January 22, March silver is trading 16.2 cents higher and has made a daily high of 18.445, which is below yesterday’s high of 18.505.Without committed longs, the market is vulnerable to a setback, much more so than gold, especially since silver has been outperforming gold year to date. Silver remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal.

Cocoa: On January 22, March cocoa will generate a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

March cocoa lost $73.00 on huge volume of 45,086 contracts. Volume was the strongest since January 8 when March cocoa advanced $74.00 on volume of 47,501 contracts and total open interest increased by 8,850 contracts. On January 21, total open interest declined by 1,216 contracts, which relative to volume is average.The March contract lost 3,522 of open interest, July 2015 -197, September 2015 -190.

As this report is being compiled on January 22, March cocoa has closed at 2801, down sharply by $51.00. The daily high for trading on January 22 has been 2849, which is significantly below OIA’s key pivot point for January 22 of 2917.The market is overdue for a counter trend rally and this will be the opportunity to initiate bearish positions.

Coffee: On January 21, March coffee generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the short-term buy signal of January 9. March coffee remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

March coffee lost 3.05 cents on volume of 27,338 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,039 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% above average meaning that liquidation was heavy on the decline . The March contract lost 613 of open interest, May 2015-665, December 2015 -135. During the past 2 days, March coffee is lost 9.75 cents and total open interest is declined 2,483 contracts. As this report is being compiled on January 22, March coffee is trading 1.15 cents lower and has made a new low for the move at 1.5970. Stand aside.

Sugar: On January 21, March New York sugar generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on January 16.

March sugar advanced 9 points on heavy volume of 190,135 contracts.Volume was the strongest since September 22, 2014 when 215,199 contracts were traded and March sugar closed at 15.64. On January 21, total open interest increased by 3,100 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% below average.

During the past 4 sessions beginning on January 15 through January 21, March sugar has advanced 99 points while total open interest has increased by 185 contracts.This indicates that speculators have not begun to panic about the rise in sugar prices.The market is overbought and has not had a correction since generating the short-term buy signal on January 16. We recommend standing aside until a correction occurs. As this report is being compiled on January 22, March sugar has closed at 15.92, down 1 point.