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Soybeans:

March soybeans lost 6.75 cents on volume of 158,453 contracts. Total open interest increased by 8,473 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 105% above average meaning that new short sellers were aggressively entering the market in large numbers and driving prices lower (9.75). As this report is being compiled on January 23, March soybeans are trading 4.25 cents lower and have made a new low for the move at 9.67 1/4, which is the lowest print since 9.58 1/2 made on October 21, 2014. The contract low of 9.20 3/4 was made on October 1. In our view, soybeans are headed for a test of the contract low. We have no recommendation.

Soybean meal:

March soybean meal lost 40 cents on volume of 82,067 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,952 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that a battle ensued between buyers and sellers and sellers had the edge, moving prices fractionally lower. The September 2015 contract lost 22 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on January 23, March soybean meal is trading $1.20 higher on the day. Maintain bearish positions recommended in the January 5 report.

Soybean oil: On January 22, March soybean oil generated an intermediate term sell signal, which reverses the intermediate term buy signal on January 9. On January 23, if the high for the day is below OIA’s key pivot point of 32.18, March soybean oil will generate a short-term sell signal. This will reverse the short-term buy signal on January 6

March soybean oil lost 44 points on volume of 112,236 contracts. Total open interest declined by 821 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 5,704 of open interest.As this report is being compiled on January 23, March soybean oil is trading 32 points lower and has made a daily low of 31.50, which is above the contract low of 31.41 made on December 2. The penetration of the contract low appears to be inevitable. Stand aside.

Corn:

March corn lost 4.25 cents on volume of 239,396 contracts. Volume was the strongest since January 15 when March corn lost 1.00 cent on volume of 307,496 contracts and total open interest increased by 14,376 contracts. On January 22, total open interest increased by 12,802 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 105% above average meaning new short sellers were aggressively entering the market and driving prices lower (3.82 1/2).

The March contract accounted for loss of 7,522 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on January 23, March corn is trading 3.00 cents higher and has made a daily low of 3.82. March corn remains on a short-term sell signal, but an intermediate term buy signal. We have no recommendation.

WTI crude oil:

March WTI crude oil lost $1.47 on volume of 868,320 contracts. Total open interest increased by 10,922 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The February contract accounted for loss of 262 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on January 23, March WTI is trading 36 cents lower and has made a daily low of 45.35, which is the lowest print since March WTI made a contract low of 44.78 on January 13. New contract lows are inevitable. Stand aside.

Natural gas:

March natural gas lost 11.3 cents on volume of 481,265 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4,784 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The February contract accounted for loss of 14,086 of open interest. Yesterday, March natural gas made a new contract low of 2.762, and as this report is being compiled on January 23, March natural gas is trading 12.5 cents higher on the day. March natural gas remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Gold:

February gold advanced $7.00 on heavy volume of 265,586 contracts. Volume was the strongest since January 20 when February gold advanced $17.30 on volume of 277,963 contracts and total open interest increased by 5,742 contracts. On January 22, total open interest increased by a massive 13,991 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 100% above average meaning that aggressive new buyers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new high for the move (1307.80).

As this report is being compiled on January 23, February gold is trading $10.90 lower and has made a daily low of 1284.30. The market is overbought relative to its 5, 20 and 50 day moving averages and a continued correction would be healthy for the market. The Greek elections occur over the weekend, and this could be a market moving event.

Silver:

March silver advanced 16.7 cents on volume of 46,733 contracts. Total open interest increased by 543 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% less than average. The March contract accounted for loss of 191 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on January 23, March silver is trading 8.5 cents lower and has made a daily low of 18.12, which is above yesterday’s low of 17.89.

The market has been trading firmly, and we expect higher prices ahead. However, silver is overbought relative to its 5, 20 and 50 day moving averages and a correction should be expected. March silver generated a short-term buy signal on January 13 and an intermediate term buy signal on January 20.

Cocoa: On January 22, March cocoa generated a short-term sell signal, and remains on an intermediate term sell signal

March cocoa lost $51.00 on heavy volume of 41,320 contracts. Volume was below that of January 21 when March cocoa lost 73.00 on volume of 45,086 contracts and total open interest declined by 1,216 contracts. On January 22, total open interest declined by a massive 5,945 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 375% above average meaning that liquidation was off the charts heavy.

The March contract accounted for loss of 6,990 of open interest, May 2015-327. Now that a short-term sell signal has been generated, the market should have a counter trend rally and this is the opportunity to initiate bearish positions. On January 23, March cocoa has closed at 2755, down 46.00. Stand aside.

Coffee:

March coffee lost 1.30 cents on volume of 26,745 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,059 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning that new short sellers were entering the market in larger than usual numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (1.5970). As this report is being compiled on January 23 near the close, March coffee has made a fractional new low at 1.5940, but is currently trading 2.55 cents higher on the day. On January 21, March coffee generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal. However, the fundamentals for coffee are bullish and we expect prices to work their way higher in the near future.

Sugar:

March sugar lost 1 point on volume of 122,512 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,417 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average however, the March contract lost 1,518 of open interest, July 2015 -174, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).

During the past 5 sessions beginning on January 15 through January 22, March sugar has advanced 98 points while total open interest has increased by 2,602 contracts.This indicates that new buying has been moving prices higher rather than short covering. It also confirms that shorts are not panicked by the move at this juncture.

The market has been overbought, however this condition may be relieved as sugar has closed sharply lower at 15.17 down 74 points and has made a daily low of 15.08. On January 16, March sugar generated a short-term buy signal and an intermediate term buy signal on January 21. We have been advising that clients stand aside until a correction occurs, and it is likely that another day of corrective activity is in the offing.

March sugar should find support at the 14.60 level, and we recommend entering a bullish positions near that area.The contract low for March occurred on January 5 at 14.07. It will be important for open interest to decline for Friday’s trading.