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Soybeans:

March soybeans lost 2.00 cents on volume of 217,268 contracts. Total open interest increased by 83 contracts. The March contract accounted for loss of 4,548 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on January 30, March soybeans are trading 8.75 cents lower and have made a new low for the move at 9.55. As we have said in previous reports, March soybeans are headed for a test of the October 1 contract low of 9.20 3/4. On January 2, March soybeans generated a short-term sell signal and had been on an intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean Meal:

March soybean meal advanced 50 cents on volume of 80,763 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,142 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The March contract accounted for loss of 4.060 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on January 30, March soybean meal is trading $7.70 lower and has made a daily low of 328.00, which is above the low for the move of 321.00 made on January 20. In the report of January 5, OIA recommended the initiation of bearish positions and these should continue to be held. Maintain stops to protect profits.

Corn: On January 29, March corn generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on January 14.

March corn lost 1.75 cents on heavy volume of 363,513 contracts. Volume was the strongest since January 14 when March corn lost 4.75 cents on volume of 437,227 contracts and total open interest increased by 8621. On January 29, total interest increased by a massive 12,320 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% above average meaning that aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new low for the move (3.68). As this report is being compiled on January 30, March corn is trading 4.25 cents lower and has made a new low for the move at 3.65 3/4. For the past two days, March corn lost 9.75  cents while total open interest increased by 28,542 contracts. This is bearish open interest action relative to the price decline. Rallies should be sold.

WTI crude oil:

March WTI advanced 8 cents on volume of 611,806 contracts. Total open interest increased by 17,870 contracts, which relative the volume is approximately 20% above average, meaning there was a battle between buyers and sellers and buyers had the edge by moving prices fractionally higher. The March contract gained 1,196 of open interest.Yesterday, March WTI made a new contract low of $43.58. As this report is being compiled on January 30, March WTI is trading 98 cents higher and has made a daily low of 44.31. Although the market has been on a downward trajectory, it has slowed markedly during the past couple of days. Stand aside.

Natural Gas:

March natural gas lost 12.3 cents on volume of 384,298 contracts. Volume was the strongest since January 22 when March natural gas lost 11.3 cents on volume of 481,265 contracts and total open interest declined by 4,784. On January 29, total open interest increased by a massive 16,197 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning aggressive new short-sellers were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new contract low (2.672). As this report is being compiled on January 30, March natural gas is trading 5.2 cents lower and has made a new contract low of 2.637.On December 1, natural gas generated a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Gold:

April gold lost $30.00 on volume of 325,928 contracts. Surprisingly, volume was below that of January 28 when April gold lost $4.50 on volume of 344,864 contracts and total open interest declined by 8,695 contracts. On January 29 total open interest declined by 11,413 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% above average meaning that liquidation was strong on the sizable decline. This is healthy open interest action, especially since there has been large open interest increases during the rally. The February contract, which will go off the board in a couple of weeks lost 20,035 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on January 30, April gold is trading 20.90 higher and has made a daily high of 1278.50.In yesterday’s report, we stated that the correction that was occurring on January 29 was a garden-variety pullback for a market that was overbought.As we have said before, we think gold will experience much backing and filling as it moves from bear to bull.

From the January 28 report:

“Based upon the current price for April gold, the market is trading slightly above its 20 day moving average of 1249.20 and significantly above the 50 day moving average of 1219.20. Additionally, for April gold to generate a short-term sell signal , the high of the day the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for January 29 of 1238.90. We don’t think this is in the cards. Additionally, for an intermediate-term sell signal to be generated, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for January 29 of 1218.80.There is no question the market can pull back further, but we think this is a garden-variety wash out. We recommend the use of options for risk mitigation.”

Silver:

March silver lost $1.315 on very heavy volume of 84,995 contracts. Volume took out the previous high-volume of 81,502 contracts made on December 16 when March silver lost 81.1 cents. On January 29, total open interest increased by 1,412 contracts, which relative the volume is approximately 35% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 868 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on January 30, March silver is trading 38.7 cents higher on the day.Like gold. silver will go through much backing and filling before the market begins to rise in earnest. When the longer term moving averages indicate a bullish set up, we think hot money will flow to the precious metals once again

From the January 28 report:

“In order for March silver to generate a short-term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for January 29 of 16.380.For an intermediate term sell signal to be generated, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for January 29 of 16.770. March silver is trading 6.93% lower while gold is trading down 2.36%. This is to be expected because silver has been the out performer year to date by a wide margin.”

Coffee:

March coffee lost 7.70 cents on heavy volume of 43,515 contracts. Volume was the strongest since November 14 when March coffee advanced 3.20 cents on volume of 54,318 contracts. On January 29, total interest declined by 419 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 1,367 of open interest, May 2015 -377. The decline of open interest along with the sizable loss is healthy, and the fact that open interest did not increase is another positive. We think coffee prices ultimately are headed higher, but the market is not ready to make its move. The fundamentals are coffee are positive and is one of the few bullish commodity trades aside from the precious metals. As this report is being compiled on January 30, March coffee is trading 1.10 cents higher on the day. March coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Sugar:

March sugar lost 31 points on volume of 164,980 contract. Total open interest increased by 1,575 contracts, which relative to the volume is approximately 50% below average. The March contract accounted for loss of 10,816 of open interest, July 2015 -1864, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). For the past three sessions beginning on January 27, March sugar has declined 50 points while total open interest has increased by 13,154 contracts. This is bearish open interest action relative to the three day price decline.

As this report is being compiled on January 30, March sugar as close at 14.79, down 6 points.Although March sugar has not generated a short term sell signal, it appears this is going to occur during the next session or two.On January 27, March sugar generated an intermediate term sell signal, which reversed the intermediate term by signal of January 21. March sugar generated a short-term buy signal on January 16.

From the January 28 report:

“It looks increasingly likely that March sugar is going to reverse the short term buy signal of January 16.In order for this to occur, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for January 29 of 14.91. If the market penetrates 14.61, bullish positions should be liquidated.”