Soybeans:

July soybeans lost 4.00 and the November contract lost 4.25 cents on total volume of 153,990 contracts. Total open interest declined by 5,660 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% above average. The July contract accounted for loss of 9,696 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on June 17, July soybeans are trading 20.50 cents lower and the November contract is trading down 9.75. The July contract has made a new low for the move at 13.97 1/4, which is the lowest print since March 31 of 13.94 1/2. The November contract has made a daily low of 12.02 1/2, which is the lowest print since June 5 of 12.01 1/4. Maintain the long put position in the November contract that OIA recommended on June 2. July soybeans remain on a short sell signal and an intermediate term buy signal. The November contract remains on a short-term sell signal, and in intermediate term buy signal.The July contract will generate an intermediate term sell signal, if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point of $14.03 1/2. Stand aside in the July contract.

Soybean meal:

July soybean meal lost $5.50 on volume of 77,244 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 7,584 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 300% above average, meaning that liquidation was off the charts heavy on June 16. This is the 2nd day in a row that open interest has declined massively relative to volume. The July contract accounted for loss of 10,627 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on June 17, July soybean meal is trading $6.80 lower and has made a new low for the move at 450.70, which is the lowest print since March 31, 2014 of 450.60.On June 11, July soybean meal generated a short-term sell signal and will generate an intermediate term sell signal if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point of $455.40. Stand aside.

Corn:

July corn lost 6.00 cents on volume of 291,613 contracts. Surprisingly, volume was the lowest since June 5 when July corn lost 7.25 cents on volume of 268,354 contracts and total open interest increased by 8314. On June 16, open interest increased by 384 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average. The July contract accounted for loss of 28,283 of open interest and there was sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to bring down total open interest to a negligible figure. As this report is being compiled on June 17, July corn is trading 3.25 cents lower and has taken out the previous low made on June 11 of $4.39 1/4, with another new low of 4.35 1/2. The contract low for the July contract occurred on January 10, 2014 at 4.21 3/4. July corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Live cattle:

August live cattle lost 17.5 points on extremely light volume of 30,318 contracts.Volume was the smallest since May 28 when August cattle advanced 35 points on volume of 31,335 contracts and total open interest declined by 1,659 contracts. On June 16, total open interest declined by 116 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 80% below average. The June contract lost 1,195 of open interest in August – 694.The decline of open interest in the August contract began on June 6 and has continued every day thereafter.From June 6 through June 16 the August contract has lost a total of 6,378 of open interest and during this time August cattle has advanced 5.125 cents. As we have mentioned in previous reports, we consider the decline of open interest to a positive. It shows a high degree of skepticism on the part of market participants of cattle’s ability to continue moving higher.

OIA is looking for a day when volume explodes along with open interest, and if this occurs, we think the top or a temporary top will be in place. As this report is being compiled on June 17, August cattle is trading 15 points higher and has made a new contract high at 1.47750, which takes out the previous contract high of 1.47300 made on June 13. Continue to hold the bull call spread recommended on May 29 along with the long put advised on June 10.

WTI crude oil:

July WTI crude oil lost 1 cent on volume of 607,810 contracts. Total open interest increased by 7,106 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The July contract lost 14,224 of open interest. As this report is being compiled, the daily high in the July contract is 107.18, which is below yesterday’s high of 107.54 and the contract high of 107.68 made on June 13. July WTI remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.

Natural gas:

July natural gas lost 3.2 cents on volume of 248,563 contracts. Total open interest increased by 4,957 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The July contract accounted for loss of 13,060 contracts. During the evening session on Sunday when the market opened, July natural gas made a spike high at 4.886, and then sold off for the rest of the session to make a low of 4.669.As this report is being compiled on June 17, July natural gas is trading essentially unchanged on the day. The first sign of trouble would be a close under $4.639. Although July natural gas remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal, we recommend a stand aside posture at this juncture.

Euro:

The September euro advanced 34 pips on light volume of 140,928 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3278 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average. As this report is being compiled on June 17, the September euro is trading 21 pips lower. The September euro remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

British pound:

The September British pound advanced 10 pips on volume of 86,382 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,721 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average. The September pound made a new contract high at 1.6997, and as this report is being compiled on June 17, the pound is trading 14 pips lower and has not taken out yesterday’s high. The pound remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.

Gold:

August gold closed $1.20 higher on very light volume of 101,463 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,055 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. Yesterday, August gold made a new high for the move at $1285.10, which is the highest print since 1294.7 made on May 27. As this report is being compiled on June 17, August gold is trading 3.90 lower after making a daily low of 1258.00 and currently is trading at 1271.40. In short, the market has bounced back from the low, and we think it is only a matter of time before August gold generates a short-term buy signal.

Platinum:

July platinum gained $4.10 on heavy volume of 14,239 contracts. Volume increased from June 13 when July platinum lost 6.30 on volume of 13,164 contracts and total open interest declined by a massive 2598 contracts. On June 16, total open interest declined by 673 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that liquidation was heavy for the 2nd day in a row. The July contract accounted for loss of 3,266 of open interest. In order for July platinum to generate a short-term sell signal, the daily high in the July contract must be below OIA’s key pivot point of $1438.80. Stand aside.

Silver: Initiate new bullish positions in September silver on June 17 and use today’s low as an exit point for these positions. We recommend using options because volatility is low, and this makes them inexpensive.

July silver gained 6.00 cents on healthy volume of 63,187 contracts. Total open interest increased by 369 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% below average. However, the July contract lost 4,756 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). On Sunday evening (8:00-8:15 pm CDT), July silver made a spike high at $19.875 on volume of 2,238 on the 15 minute chart. From that point on, the market drifted lower throughout the evening and day session, but managed to close positively.

As this report is being compiled on June 17, July silver is trading 1.5 cents higher on the day after making a low of 19.435 between 7: 30 a.m.- 7: 35 a.m. CDT on June 17. We point out spikes in volume because often they represent a significant high or low. The market has been acting extremely well during the past several days and also very positively during the pullback. We are concerned that the pullback to the low on June 17 (almost touched the 50 day moving average of $19.422) may be the extent of the correction and for this reason are recommending the initiation of bullish positions using today’s low as an exit point.