We apologize for the delay of the June 23 report. OIA experienced technical difficulties, however, we contacted each client and were able to provide appropriate guidance.

Soybeans:

August soybeans gained 4.00 cents and the November contract advanced 2.25 on volume of 181,658 contracts. Total open interest declined by 4,194 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average. The July contract lost 16,484 of open interest. August and November soybeans remain on a short-term sell signal, but an intermediate term buy signal.Stand aside.

Soybean meal:

August soybean meal lost $2.10 on volume of 81,696 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 7,145 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 250% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy. The July contract accounted for loss of 11,530 of open interest. Remarkably, August soybean meal has not generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on June 11. An intermediate term sell signal will occur if the high in August soybean meal is below OIA’s key pivot point of $432.60. Stand aside.

Soybean oil: On June 23, August soybean oil generated a short-term sell buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal. 

August soybean oil advanced 55 points on volume of 96,528 contracts. Total open interest declined by 7,322 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 210% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the advance. The July contract accounted for a loss of 10,627 of open interest. The weakness of soybean meal and the strength in soybean oil was attributed to closing out of the long soybean meal short soybean oil spreads. As is usually the case after the generation of a buy signal, the market has a tendency to pullback from 1-3 days. Usually, this is a buying opportunity, but in the case of soybean oil, we are concerned more about the bearish condition of soybean meal and soybeans and their affect on soybean oil. Therefore, we recommend a stand aside posture.

Corn: we are suspending reporting on corn until such time that we see a trading opportunity or there is a change in signal.

Live cattle:

August live cattle gained 60 points on light volume of 30,354 contracts. Total open interest increased by 492 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 30 percent below average. The June contract accounted for loss of 1048 and August -574. Though August cattle remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal, we recommend a stand aside posture. The market is moving parabolically, and this a setup for a potential reversal.

WTI crude oil:

August WTI crude oil lost 66 cents on light volume of 368,127 contracts. Total open interest declined only 2,640 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 65% below average. The July contract accounted for loss of 5,407 of open interest and August -7049. We continue to recommend a stand aside posture.

Natural gas:

August natural gas lost 8.4 cents on volume of 240,698 contracts. Total open interest declined by 11,393 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline. The July contract accounted for loss of 11,512 of open interest.August natural gas made a low of $4.458, which takes out the May 28 print of 4.472. Remarkably, natural gas has held up fairly well, even though it has come close to generating a short-term sell signal. August natural gas remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.

Copper: On June 23, September copper generated a short and intermediate term buy signal.

September copper gained 2.90 cents on heavy volume of 84,872 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,613 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The July contract accounted for loss of 5,929 of open interest.Although copper prices have advanced strongly, the open interest action during the advance has been decidedly negative. Granted, the July contract is losing open interest and this definitely impacts on overall open interest totals. However, there is not sufficient buying in the forward months to offset declines. We recommend a stand aside posture, especially since copper has not had a pullback of 1-3 days, and the market is significantly overbought at this juncture.

Gold:

August gold advanced $1.80 on light volume of 125,001 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,928 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average. After generating a short and intermediate term buy signal on June 20, gold has not had a pullback, and at this juncture is overbought. Stand aside in gold.

Silver:

September silver lost 3.00 cents on heavy volume of 81,843 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2512 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average. The July contract accounted for loss of 7,934 of open interest. On June 16, we recommended the initiation of bullish positions after silver generated a short-term buy signal on June 13. These positions currently are profitable and we advise they continue to be held. We much prefer silver to gold.