Bloomberg access:

Chicago wheat: May Chicago wheat will generate a short-term buy signal on March 11 and will generate an intermediate term buy signal if the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for March 11 of 4.75 1/4.

Kansas City wheat: On March 11, May Kansas City wheat will generate an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on March 7.

Soybeans: On March 11, May soybeans will generate an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on March 7.

WTI crude oil: On March 10, April and May WTI crude oil generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signals on March 3.

April WTI crude oil lost 45 cents on heavy volume of 1,394,769 contracts. Total open interest declined by 17,469 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The April contract accounted for a loss of 59,291 of open interest. Yesterday, the April contract made a high of 38.48, which was slightly below the March 9 high of 38.51.

As this report is being compiled on March 11, the April contract is trading 89 cents above yesterday’s close and has made a new high for the move of $39.02, which is the highest print since 38.99 made on December 9, 2015. Additionally, the April contract has made a daily low on March 11 of 37.92, which is above yesterday’s low of 37.21, which was above the March 9 low of 36.24.

In summary, April WTI is making a series of higher highs and higher lows. The market is trading in a very firm manner and for the rally to continue, gasoline performance must improve. On March 11, WTI is trading + 2.11 percent while gasoline is +0.45% and heating oil +0.62%. We have no recommendation.

Gasoline: On March 10, April and May gasoline generated intermediate term buy signals after generating short term buy signals on March 7.

April gasoline lost 3.15 cents on volume of 209,485 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1.325 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 70% below average. Yesterday’s open interest increase on the price decline is negative and indicates that short sellers are willing to enter the market on any weakness. Additionally, the April contract lost 4,024 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in April and increase total open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 11, the April contract is trading fractionally higher on the day. We have no recommendation.

Gold:

April gold advanced $15.40 on heavy volume of 339,438 contracts. Volume was the strongest since March 4 when the April contract gained 12.50 on volume of 392,581 contracts and total open interest increased by 8,727. On March 10, total open interest increased by 15,074 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 70% above average meaning aggressive new buyers were entering the market in substantial numbers and driving prices higher (1274.30).

As this report is being compiled on March 11, the April contract is trading $13.00 lower after making a new contract high of 1287.80 in yesterday’s early evening session. We continue to think that gold will trade sideways for a time and if the equity market rolls over, which it should in the not-too-distant future, gold will take another leg higher. OIA announced that gold generated a short-term buy signal on January 7 and an intermediate term buy signal on January 26. We have no recommendation.

Dollar index: The March and June dollar index will generate a short-term sell signal on March 11, which reverses the February 29 short term buy signals both contracts remain on intermediate term sell signals.

The March dollar index lost 1.104 on heavy volume of 124,288 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,548 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, but an open interest increase on yesterday’s large price decline is bearish. Additionally, the March contract lost 12,409 as it approaches expiration, and there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in March and increase total open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 11, the June contract is trading nearly unchanged on the day. We have no recommendation.

Euro: The March and June euro will generate an intermediate term buy signal on March 11. However, a short-term buy signal will not take place on March 11. The intermediate term buy signal reverses the March 1 intermediate term sell signals

The March euro advanced 1.96 cents on staggering volume of 892,288 contracts. Volume traded on March 10 is likely to be an exchange record. On March 10, total open interest increased by 4,392 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average, however, the March contract lost 75,068 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in March and increase total open interest.

As this report is being compiled on March 11, the June contract is trading 42 pips lower and has made a low of 1.1111, which is below OIA’s key pivot point for the generation of a short-term buy signal on March 11 of 1.1133. For a short-term buy signal to occur, the the low of the day must be above the pivot point. We have no recommendation.

Yen: The June yen is getting close to generating a short-term sell signal, and this will occur if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 11 of .8816. 

Euro/Yen: On March 11, the euro/yen cross will generate a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

British pound: The March and June British pound are getting close to generating short term buy signals, and it appears this will occur on Monday.

The March British pound advanced 60 pips on huge volume of 313,959 contracts. Total open interest increased by a staggering 44,839 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 360% above average meaning huge numbers of new buyers were entering the market in very large numbers and driving prices to a new high for the move of 1.4318. In trading on March 9, total open interest increased by a staggering 31,243 on volume of 194,976 contracts and the March contract advanced only 10 pips.

As this report is being compiled on March 11, the June pound is rocketing higher, up 1.08 cents and has made a new high for the move of 1.4441, which is the highest print since 1.4449 made February 17. From this high, the pound made its contract low of 1.3835 on February 29. According to the latest COT report, managed money remains short the pound by a ratio of 2.40:1. There is going to be a terrific opportunity on the bearish side of this market, but we want to see speculative short-sellers get blown out and then use our signals to guide the timing of the entry. Stand aside for now.

10 Year Treasury Note:

The June 10 year treasury note lost 13.5 points on substantial volume of 1,694,831 contracts. Total open interest declined by 51,652 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% above average meaning liquidation was heavier than normal on yesterday’s decline to a new low for the move of 128-155.

As this report is being compiled on March 11, the June contract is trading lower again, down 10.5 points and has made a new low for the move of 128-065. On March 3, OIA announced that the 10 year note generated a short-term sell signal, and an intermediate term sell signal will be generated when the high for the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 11 of 128-055. We have no recommendation.