Bloomberg access:

Corn: May corn will generate a short-term buy signal on March 14 if the daily low is above OIA’s key pivot point for March 14 of 3.65 3/8.

Soybeans: On March 11, May soybeans generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on March 7.

Kansas City wheat: On March 11, May Kansas City wheat generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on March 7.

Chicago Wheat: May Chicago wheat generated a short term buy signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

Coffee: On March 11, May New York coffee generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on March 7.

WTI crude oil:

April WTI crude oil advanced 66 cents on healthy volume of 1,170,732 contracts. Total open interest increased by 26,058 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average. However, the April contract lost 32,702 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in April and increase total open interest. Friday’s performance was outstanding.

As this report is being compiled on March 14, the May contract is trading $1.56 lower and a correction has been overdue The last time crude had a substantial setback occurred on March 8 when the April contract lost 1.40 on volume of 1,316,137 and total open interest declined by 30,111. We have no recommendation.

From the March 13 research note:

“The performance of crude oil was outstanding on Wednesday March 10 when the EIA storage report was released and Thursday when SPX pulled back over 20 points from the high after the announcement from the ECB. Both WTI and Brent remained firm throughout the two day period, and though crude needs to correct its over bought condition, especially since WTI generated an intermediate term buy signal on March 10, we think higher prices are ahead.”

“The correction should send the May 2016 contract (Friday close $40.00) to our pivot point range of $38.69-39.41 where it should find support. A close below 37.14 would increase the likelihood of a new short-term sell signal.”

Dollar index: On March 11, March and June dollar indices generated short-term sell signals, and remain on intermediate term sell signals.

Euro: On March 11, March and June euro generated intermediate term buy signals, and will generate short-term buy signals if the June contract makes a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point of 1.1123.

June euro lost 43 pips on heavy volume of 415,387 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,668 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 70% below average, and an open interest increase on Friday’s decline is negative. Additionally, the March contract lost 26,098 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in March and increase total open interest.

As this report is being compiled on March 14, the June euro is trading 50 pips lower and has made a daily low of 1.1124, which is 1 pip above OIA’s key pivot point for March 14. If today’s daily low can be maintained, the June euro will generate a short-term buy signal on March 14. We have no recommendation.

British pound: The June British pound will generate a short-term buy signal on March 14 if the daily low remains above OIA’s key pivot point for March 14 of 1.4250.

The June British pound advanced by a robust 99 pips on substantial volume of 145,320 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,712 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The March contract accounted for a loss of 10,938 of open interest, which means there were insufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in March.

According to the latest COT report released on Friday and tabulated on March 8, leverage funds liquidated 7,990 of their long positions and added 166 to their short positions. As a result, the short ratio of leveraged funds increase to 2.89:1, up from the previous week’s ratio of 2.40:1 and the ratio two weeks ago of 2.28:1. 

As we have said before, we think the pound will be a terrific bearish opportunity, but this is not on the horizon at this point. First, we need to see professional speculators get blown out of their short positions and a down side violation of our pivot points, before the pound heads for a test of 1.3835, the low made in late February. Stand aside.

Yen: The June yen will generate a short-term sell signal if the daily high is below OIA’s key pivot point for March 14 of .8814.

The June yen lost 49 pips on volume of 170,741 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,410, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. The March contract accounted for a loss of 17,784 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on March 14 the June contract is trading 3 pips lower.

We expect the June yen to generate a short-term buy signal, most likely this week. The COT report revealed that leverage funds increased their net long position and the ratio stands at 1.70:1, up from the previous week’s print of 1.48:1 and substantially above the ratio two weeks ago of 1.28:1. This means once the yen generates a short-term sell signal, leverage funds will liquidate long positions, which will add additional pressure to the market. We have no recommendation.

Canadian dollar:

The June Canadian dollar advanced 69 pips on heavy volume of 127,475 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,068 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% less than average, but an open interest increase on Friday’s strong advance is bullish. Additionally, the March contract lost 15,147 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in March and increase total open interest.

On Friday, the June contract made a new high for the move of 75.96, the highest print since 75.98 made November 6, 2015. As this report is being compiled on March 14, Friday’s high remains intact and the June contract is trading 36 pips lower on the day. According to the latest COT report, leverage funds remained massively short the Canadian dollar by a ratio of 3.96:1, which is down from the previous week’s print of 6.91:1, but this was due to the 4,647 contract addition to long positions. Leverage funds also added 85 contracts to their short positions.

In summary,, the massive short position held by leverage funds remains intact and has not been reduced even though on March 8, the tabulation date for the COT report, the March Canadian dollar made a new high for the move of 75.26. Although tempting, do not short the Canadian dollar.The June Canadian dollar remains on short and intermediate term buy signals. Stand aside.

Australian dollar:

The June Australian dollar advanced by a strong 1.20 cents on heavy volume of 133,655 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,831 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, but an open interest increase on Friday’s strong advance is bullish. Additionally, the March contract lost 7,381 of open interest, which means there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in March and increase total open interest.

On Friday, the June contract made a new high for the move of 75.51, and this has not been taken out on March 14. The COT report revealed that leverage funds finally got around to becoming net long after being short since the bottom of the move of 68.09 made on January 20.

In summary, it took leverage funds approximately 45 days to move from a net short to a net long position. By March 8, the tabulation date of the report. the Australian dollar  had made a high of 74.82. The move to a net long position by leveraged funds may signify the Australian dollar is near a top, but we advise against shorting it now. The June Australian dollar remains on short and intermediate term buy signals. Stand aside.