For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

Soybeans:

January soybeans advanced 5.75 cents on volume of 224,225 contracts. Volume was the lowest since November 10 when January soybeans lost 11.00 cents on volume of 219,078 contracts and total open interest increased by 2,091 contracts. On November 13, total open interest increased by 4,522 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% less than average. The November contract lost 1209 of open interest, January 2015 -685, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (potentially bullish).

However, the open interest increase on November 13 is the 1st since November 6 when January soybeans advanced 8.75 cents on volume of 226,335 contracts and total open interest increased by 2,556 contracts, which was approximately 50% below average. On November 11, January soybeans advanced by 38.25 cents on volume of 270,514 contracts, but open interest declined 68 contracts, which is definitely bearish. Yesterday, January soybeans made a high of 10.72 1/2, which is below the November 12 high of 10.86 1/4, and as this report is being compiled on November 14, January soybeans are trading 24.75 cents lower and have made a low of 10.26 3/4, which is the lowest print since 10.20 1/4 made on November 11.

The inability of January soybeans to generate an intermediate term buy signal, confirms the internal weakness of the market, and the open interest increase in yesterday’s trading may signify the Johnny-come-lately’s are getting on board what they think is a bullish train. We believe that large numbers of previous short sellers have been blown out of the market, which means for the market to continue its advance, new buyers have to be willing to step up and pay increasing prices to keep the rally going. We don’t think this is in the cards. January soybeans generated a short-term buy signal on October 24 and remains on an intermediate term sell signal. We have no recommendation.

The USDA reported terrific soybean sales of 1074.32 thousand metric tons bringing total commitments to 1.3492  billion bushels versus USDA projections for the entire season of 1.720 billion bushels. As of the current report, 78% of the projected USDA sales have already been committed.

Soybean meal:

December soybean meal lost $1.50 on volume of 106,449 contracts. Total open interest increased by 4,101 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% above average. The December contract accounted for loss of 5,732 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on November 14, December soybean meal is trading $8.40 lower or -2.72% versus soybeans trading -2.42%.The problem with soybean meal is that it makes new highs, but is unable to hold these and without exception, sells off sharply indicating that commercial selling is likely keeping a lid on advances. Although the tightness in soybean meal will likely cause further spikes in prices, we think this act of the play is on borrowed time. December soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal.

Corn:

December corn advanced 8.50 cents on very heavy volume of 589,625 contracts. Although volume was extremely heavy, it fell short of volume traded on November 12 of 663,212 contracts when December corn advanced 4.00 cents and total open interest declined by 16,527 contracts. On November 13, total open interest increased by 17,840 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average. The December contract lost 20,240 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). Yesterday, December corn made a high of 3.89, which is the highest print since July 18 (3.89). On October 9, December corn generated a short-term buy signal and generated an intermediate term buy signal on October 30.

Like the rest of the grain complex , we think the rally in corn is on borrowed time, and corn will have to make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point for November 14 of 3.92 3/4 for the rally to continue.We don’t think this is in the cards, and the upcoming COT report will reveal the extent to which managed money has become bullish.

The USDA reported sales of 505.3 thousand metric tons bringing total commitments to date of 776.6 million bushels versus USDA projections for the season of 1.750 billion bushels. Today’s report was nothing to write home about.

Chicago wheat: December and March Chicago wheat will generate an intermediate term buy signal on November 14 after generating a short-term buy signal on October 17.

December Chicago wheat advanced 11.00 cents on heavy volume of 220,099 contracts. Volume fell from November 12 when December Chicago wheat advanced 17.50 cents on volume of 290,899 contracts and total open interest declined by 4,954 contracts. On November 13, total open interest increased by 4,059 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% less than average. However, the December contract lost 11,131 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). Yesterday, December Chicago wheat made a high of 5.59, and this has been taken out on November 14 with another new high of 5.64 3/4, which is the highest print since September 2 (5.66).The rally in Chicago wheat is on borrowed time, and the extent of it may be a rally to OIA’s key pivot point for November 14 of 5.78 5/8. In order for the rally to continue, December Chicago wheat must make a low above this pivot point.

The USDA reported sales of 417.7 thousand metric tons bringing total sales to date of 581.3 million bushels versus USDA projections for the season of 925 million bushels.

WTI crude oil:

December WTI crude oil lost $2.97 on heavy volume of 883,111 contracts. Volume was the strongest since November 11 when December WTI advanced $1.49 on volume of 840,911 contracts and total open interest increased by 8,095 contracts. On November 13, total open interest increased by 14,725 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% less than average. The December contract accounted for loss of 13,540 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). The open interest increase on November 13 is the largest for a price decline going back to October 14 when WTI lost $3.90 and total open interest increased by 21,320 contracts. on October 14, December WTI closed at 81.20. The open interest increase in yesterday’s trading may signify a temporary low, however we do not think the bear market is over. As this report is being compiled on November 14, December WTI is trading $1.06 higher and has made a new contract low of 73.25. Stand aside.

The Energy Information Administration announced that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 378.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels last week and are near the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 0.9 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels last week

Natural gas:

December natural gas lost 20.8 cents on volume of 407,635 contracts. Total open interest declined by 7,025 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 30% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 16,560 of open interest. The open interest and volume stats confirm our thesis that speculative longs are digging in and refusing to liquidate as prices move lower. This represents potential selling pressure when prices begin to advance again. As this report is being compiled on November 14, December natural gas is trading 2.7 cents higher and has made a daily low of 3.931, which is the lowest print since 3.835 made on October 31.December natural gas generated a short-term buy signal on November 3 and an intermediate term buy signal on November 5. We have no recommendation.

The Energy Information Administration announced that working gas in storage was 3,611 Bcf as of Friday, November 7, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 40 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 220 Bcf less than last year at this time and 237 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,848 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 102 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 8 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 106 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,251 Bcf after a net injection of 28 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 29 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 4 Bcf. At 3,611 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.

Gold:

December gold advanced $2.40 on fairly heavy volume of 233,750 contracts. Volume declined somewhat from November 12 when December gold lost $3.90 on volume of 240,400 contracts and total open interest declined by 2,826 contracts. On November 13, total open interest increased by a massive 9,767 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning that aggressive new longs were entering the market and driving prices fractionally higher. As this report is being compiled on November 14, December gold has skyrocketed $27.70 and has made a new high for the move at 1192.90, which is the highest print since 1202.40 made on October 31.

In order for December gold to generate a short-term buy signal, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for November 14 of 1201.40.

Coffee:

March coffee advanced 4.40 cents on heavy volume of 46,861 contracts. Total open interest declined by 247 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average, however, the December contract lost 6,444 of open interest and there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset most of the decline in December. As this report is being compiled on November 14, December coffee has closed at 1.9635, which is the highest close since 1.9665 made on October 28.As we said in yesterday’s report, clients should begin to position themselves on the bullish side of the market, because we think buy signals are on the horizon. March coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.