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Soybeans:

January soybeans lost 13.00 cents on very light volume of 143,589 contracts.Volume was the weakest since September 23 when 142,862 contracts were traded and January soybeans closed at 9.43 3/4. On November 18, total open interest declined by 2,319 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% less than average. The January contract accounted for loss of 2,986 of open interest, March 2015 -107. As this report is being compiled on November 19, January soybeans are trading 16.00 cents lower and have made a new low for the move at 10.03 3/4, which is the lowest print since 9.95 1/4 made on November 5. January soybeans will generate a short-term sell signal if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for November 19 of 10.04. For the rally to resume, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for November 19 of 10.33 7/8.

From the November 17 report:

“We think rallies will struggle, and the path of least resistance is downward. In order for January soybeans to resume its advance , it must make a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point for November 18 of 10.34 3/8, and for an intermediate term buy signal to be generated, January soybeans must make a low above OIA’s key pivot point for November 18 of 10.46 3/4.”

From the November 16 Weekend Wrap:

“In short, we do not think managed money is going to be a supporter of higher soybean prices. Eliminating this category as a major buyer is problematic for soybean prices going forward.As we have said in previous reports, we think the rally in soybeans is on borrowed time and the inability of soybeans to generate an intermediate term buy signal underscores the internal weakness of the market. Remarkably, it is Chicago wheat that has generated the intermediate term buy signal even though the fundamentals for soybeans are more favorable.”

Soybean meal:

December soybean meal lost $9.10 on volume of 109,863 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,239 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% above average. The December contract accounted for loss of 9,440 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on November 19, December soybean meal is trading $6.00 lower and has made a new low for the move at 370.90, which is the lowest print since 367.60 made on November 5. For January soybean meal to generate a short-term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for November 19 of $351.70. For the rally to resume, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for November 19 of 367.40

Corn:

December corn lost 5.50 cents on volume of 336,078 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,903 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The December contract lost 23,828 of open interest, July 2015 -1840. There were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to bring down total open interest significantly below average. The action on November 18 was bearish. As this report is being compiled on November 19, March corn is trading 8.00 cents lower and has made a daily low of 3.75 3/4. For March corn to generate a short-term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for November 19 of 3.76. For the rally to resume, the low the day in the March contract must be above OIA’s key pivot point for November 19 of 3.85 7/8.

From the November 17 report:

“In short, the price and open interest action on November 17 was bearish. As this report is being compiled on November 18, December corn is trading 4.75 cents lower and has taken out yesterday’s low of 3.74 1/4 and is the lowest print since 3.72 3/4 made on November 12. Like the rest of the grain complex, we see corn as a market that is ultimately headed lower.”

Chicago wheat:

December Chicago wheat lost 2.75 cents on volume of 84,450 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,235 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% less than average. The December contract accounted for loss of 4,973 of open interest. Yesterday, December Chicago wheat made a low of 5.44 1/4 and this has been taken out today with another low of 5.39, which is the lowest print since 5.37 made on November 13.

From the November 16 Weekend Wrap:

“We view the Chicago wheat market as a potential squeeze play due to the large net short position of managed money. The fundamentals for the market are terrible and exports have been abysmal. Yet Chicago wheat continues to climb a wall of worry and has been outperforming Kansas City wheat by a large margin (+17.32% versus 8.51% thus far in the 4th quarter).From September 30 through November 11, December Chicago wheat has advanced 47.50 cents. In this time frame, the net short position of managed money has gone from 66,611 contracts on September 30 to 30,338 on November 11.This week, December Chicago wheat closed at 5.60 1/2, which is the highest weekly close since June 30.”

“We think the market will struggle beyond 5.71 1/2, and for the rally to continue, the December contract must make a low above this pivot point.We do not see December Chicago wheat trading much above 5.90. Once a sufficient number of short sellers have been blown out, the rally will peter out and the downtrend will resume.”

WTI crude oil:

January WTI lost $1.02 on volume of 531,050 contracts. Total open interest declined by 5,360 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 23,320 of open interest. As this report is being compiled, January WTI is trading 37 cents higher on the day. We think the market is going to take another leg down, and the impetus for this may be a possible agreement with Iran, which would impact the market negatively. Iran needs revenue desperately, and they have a lot of oil to sell. The inability of the market to have a 2 to 3 day rally is indicative of its internal weakness. Stand aside.

The Energy Information Administration announced that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 381.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week and are near the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 0.1 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories remained unchanged from last week.

Natural gas:

December natural gas lost 9.7 cents on heavy volume of 502,494 contracts. Volume was the highest since November 7 when December natural gas advanced 8 ticks on volume of 532,277 contracts and total open interest increased by 479 contracts. On November 18, total open interest declined by 7,900 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 11,235 of open interest. As this report has being compiled, December natural gas is rocketing higher, up by 18.7 cents on the day. Thus far in trading on November 19, the market has made a high of 4.508, which is a couple of cents below 4.544 made on November 10. December natural gas generated a short-term buy signal on November 3 and an intermediate term buy signal on November 5. We have no recommendation.

Gold:

December gold advanced $13.60 on volume of 203,910 contracts. Surprisingly, volume was the lowest since November 6 when 192,719 contracts were traded and December gold closed at 1142.60. On November 18, total open interest increased by 2,651 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% less than average. However, the December contract lost 8,606 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on November 19, December gold has closed at 1193.90, down $3.20.Earlier today, December gold sold off sharply, making a low of 1173.90, but has recovered nicely. Additionally, silver is acting firm, which is giving the bull move in gold more credence. December gold remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. We have no recommendation.

Coffee:

March coffee advanced 1.10 cents on heavier than normal volume of 40,213 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 6,965 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 475% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest advance. Accounting for the open interest decline was the December contract which lost 9,019 of open interest and is going off the board shortly. As this report is being compiled on November 19, March coffee has closed at 1.9910, up 6.20 cents. This is the highest close since October 21 (2.0375).We are very impressed with coffee’s ability to bounce back from lower closes, and it appears that coffee has made interim lows of 1.9050 and 1.9025 on November 17 and 18 respectively. March coffee is getting close to generating an intermediate term buy signal, and we think a short-term buy signal is just a matter of time.