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Soybeans:

January soybeans lost 31.00  cents on volume of 133,516 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,171 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 35% below average.The total open interest increase in Friday’s trading is bearish     The January contract accounted for loss of 2,251 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).  As this report is being compiled on December 1, January soybeans are trading 1.50 cents lower and have made a low of 10.06 1/2.

In order for January soybeans to generate a short-term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for December 1 of 10.07 5/8. We think the generation of a short-term sell signal is inevitable, and the market has been unable to generate an intermediate term buy signal even though soybean meal, Chicago and Kansas City wheat and corn have generated an intermediate term buy signals.Stand aside

Soybean meal:

January soybean meal lost $10.40 on volume of 80,366 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,369 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average. The December contract lost 2,905 of open interest, March 2015 -3,674. As this report is being compiled on December 1, January soybean meal is trading $4.70 lower and has made a low of 360.00, which is the lowest print since 356.20 made on November 21.In order for January soybean meal to generate a short-term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for December 1 of $353.90. Conceivably, we may see one more thrust higher now that the December contract is past 1st notice day, but we think a short-term sell signal is inevitable.

Corn:

March corn lost 2.75 cents on volume of 199,648 contracts. Total open interest declined by 5,178 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The December contract accounted for loss of 7,992 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on December 1, March corn is trading down 0.25 cents after making a low of 3.83, which is above Friday’s low of 3.82 3/4.For March corn to generate a short-term sell signal, the high of the day must be below OIA’s key pivot point for December 1 of 3.77 1/4. For the rally to continue, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for December 1 of 3.86 7/8.Both Chicago and Kansas City wheat are rallying sharply and yet this is having  no major impact on the price of corn.We think a short-term sell signal is inevitable.

Chicago wheat:

March Chicago wheat advanced 15.75 cents on volume of 91,290 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 8,193 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 250% above average meaning that new longs were aggressively entering the market and driving prices to a new high for the move (5.81). Making the total open interest increase very impressive was the December contract, which lost 2,222 of open interest.

The massive open interest increase at the very high-end of the range is bullish, and as this report is being compiled on December 1, March Chicago wheat has made another new high of 6.07 3/4, which takes out the previous high of 5.98 1/4 made on August 28. The reason given for the rise in wheat prices is concern about the 2015 Russian crop, and for some reason the wheat market always responds disproportionately to a threat to the Russian crop despite the fact that world wheat stocks are at major highs. We will be receiving the Commitment of Traders report today, and this will provide further insight to the extent of managed money short positions. On October 17, Chicago wheat generated a short-term buy signal and on November 14 generated an intermediate term buy signal.Stand aside.

Kansas City wheat:

March Kansas City wheat advanced 16.75 cents on volume of 22,594 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,949 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 230 percent above average meaning that new longs were aggressively and in heavy numbers entering the Kansas City wheat market and driving prices to a new high for the move (6.40 3/4). As this report is being compiled on December 1, March Kansas City wheat is trading 18.50 cents higher and has made a new high for the move at 6.64 3/4, which is the highest print since August 29 (6.60 1/4). On November 14, Kansas City wheat generated a short-term buy signal and generated an intermediate term buy signal on November 26. Stand aside.

WTI crude oil:

January WTI crude oil lost $7.54 on volume of 883,726 contracts. Volume was heavy for a long holiday weekend, and was the highest since November 13 when WTI lost $2.97 on volume of 883,111 contracts and total open interest increased by 14,725 contracts. On November 28, total open interest increased by a massive 34,285 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% above average meaning that aggressive new short sellers were entering the market in substantial numbers and driving prices lower. The January contract accounted for a gain of 8,048 of open interest. On Friday, the January contract made a new contract low at 65.69 and on December 1 has taken this out with another new low of 63.72. As this report is being compiled on December 1, January WTI is trading $2.31 higher on the day and is made a daily high of 69.24, which is substantially below Friday’s high of 73.56. To say the market is oversold is an understatement, and we recommend that clients remain on the sidelines. The market is too dangerous to trade regardless of the side taken.

Natural gas: January natural gas will generate a short and intermediate term-term sell signal on December 1.

January natural gas lost 27.1 cents on volume of 192,734 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2,252 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. As this report is being compiled on December 1, January natural gas is trading 12.7 cents lower and has made a daily low of 3.928, which is the lowest print since 3.916 made on October 31. The market is trading below OIA’s key pivot point for December 1 of 4.130, and therefore January natural gas will generate a short and intermediate term sell signal.

From the November 26 report:

“We have been warning clients to avoid the long side of natural gas and were concerned about the negative open interest action relative to price advances and declines. January natural gas remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal, but will generate a short-term sell signal if the high of the day is below OIA’s key pivot point for November 28 of 4.140.”

Gold: February gold will generate a short-term buy signal if the low the day is above OIA’s key pivot point for December 1 of 1202.40.

February gold lost $22.00 on heavy volume of 273,164 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,969 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. On Friday, gold made a low of 1164.00, and in the evening session of November 30, made another low of 1141.70, which is above the contract low 1132.00 made on November 10. As this report is being compiled on December 1, February gold has closed at 1218.10, which is up $42.60. It appears likely the precious metals have seen a key reversal day on December 1, and we expect to see short-term buy signals in gold, silver and platinum.

Silver: March silver will generate a short-term buy signal if the low of the day is above OIA’s key pivot point for December 1 of $16.607

March silver lost $1.05 on volume of 79,967 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,232 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% below average. As this report is being compiled on December 1, March silver has closed at $16.692 and has made a daily high of 16.810, which is the highest print since 17.255 made on October 30.March silver has had a historic range day during the evening session of November 30 and the day session of December 1 having traded $2.655 from the low (14.155) to the high of 16.810.

Coffee:

March coffee lost 6.85 cents on volume of 16,343 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,227 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 200% above average meaning that liquidation was very heavy on the decline. This is positive. The December contract accounted for loss of 243 of open interest, March 2015-1091. As this report is being compiled on December 1, March coffee has closed at 1.9040, up 2.95 after making a new low for the move at 1.8385, which is the lowest print since 1.8355 made on September 25. March coffee remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.