For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

On November 10, the USDA will release its World Agriculture Supply Demand report (WASDE)

Soybeans: With export sales occurring at an unbelievable pace, we recommend a sideline stance in soybeans. This is a change from our previous recommendation of light bearish positions on rallies.

January soybeans advanced 9.50 cents on light volume of 183,681 contracts.Volume shrank from November 4 when January soybeans lost 20.00 cents on volume of 202,929 contracts and total open interest Increased by 3170 contracts.Additionally, volume was the lightest since October 3 when 183,432 contracts were traded and January soybeans closed at 9.20 1/2.

On November 5, total open interest increased by 1,976 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average., However the November contract lost 1,750 of open interest, May 2015-594, which makes the total open interest increase potentially bullish. As this report is being compiled on November 6, January soybeans are trading 9.75 cents higher on low volume and have made a daily high of 10.40 1/2 which is the highest print since 10.47 3/4 made on November 3.

Previously, we said rallies should be used to initiate light bearish positions, and to exit these when and if January soybeans generate an intermediate term buy signal. For this to occur, the low the day would have to be above OIA’s key pivot point for November 6 of 10.43 7/8.

However, with the USDA will releasing its report on Monday, and the blistering pace of exports, we have changed our mind and recommend a sideline stance for now. Once the new export projection is factored into market prices, soybeans may be a candidate for light bearish positions.

The USDA reported sales of 1609.88 thousand metric tons, which brings total commitments to date of 1.3097 billion bushels versus USDA projections for the entire season, which ends on August 31, 2015 of 1.750 billion bushels.The current sale is the 3rd highest of the season, which began on September 1 and total commitments are the best to date since the 2008-2009 season. Approximately 77% of the soybean crop has already been committed, yet the season has 10 months to go. We think the USDA will raise exports considerably, and this could power the market higher temporarily. January soybeans remain on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

From the November 2 Weekend Wrap:

“The November contract may display unusual strength (or weakness) now that it is in delivery, and this may ratchet January contract prices higher temporarily.We see the next point of resistance is OIA’s pivot point of 10.87 5/8, and if the rally is to continue, January soybeans must make a low above this pivot point.”

Soybean meal:

December soybean meal advanced $2.80 on volume of 77,340 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,712 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% above average, meaning that new longs were entering the market and driving prices higher. The December contract accounted for loss of 1,278 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on November 6, December soybean meal is trading sharply higher, up 15.30 and has made a daily high of 396.80, which takes out the previous high print of 394.70 made on October 31. The high for the move occurred on October 30 (408.50).

The USDA reported cancellations totaling 123.67 thousand metric tons, which brings total commitments to date of 6269.61 thousand metric tons versus USDA projections for the entire season of 12,000 thousand metric tons. As of the latest sale, 52% of the USDA projection for the season has been committed. December soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside. It appears the market wants to go higher, and we cannot rule out meal making new contract highs.

Soybean oil:

December soybean oil lost 35 points on volume of 116,189 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,190 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 3,931 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on November 6, December soybean oil is trading 2 points higher and has made a daily low of 32.54, which is above yesterday’s low of 32.32. December soybean oil will generate a short-term sell signal, if the high for the day is below OIA’s key pivot point of 32.36. December soybean oil remains on a short-term buy signal, which was generated on October 30 and an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Corn:

December corn advanced 5.75 cents on relatively heavy volume of 343,735 contracts. Volume was the strongest since October 30 when December corn lost 1.50 cents on volume of 353,829 contracts and total open interest increased by 2,622 contracts. On November 5, total open interest increased by a massive 15,049 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 70% above average meaning that aggressive new longs were entering the market in heavy numbers and driving prices higher (3.71 3/4).The December contract accounted for loss of 6,491 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase much more impressive (bullish).

The USDA reported sales of 478.2 thousand metric tons, which brings total commitments to 756.7 million bushels versus USDA projections for the season of 1.750 billion bushels.

As this report is being compiled on November 6, December corn is trading 0.50 cents higher and has made a daily high of 3.74 1/2, which is the highest print since 3.75 1/4 made on November 3. The high for the move occurred on October 30 (3.81). In previous reports, we stated that the October 30 high is likely to be the high for the move, and we still think this is likely. However, corn may get a temporary spike from the upcoming USDA report. December corn remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. We have no recommendation.

Chicago wheat:

December Chicago wheat lost 5.75 cents on volume of 104,093 contracts. Volume was the strongest since October 10 when 112,735 contracts were traded and December wheat closed at 4.98 1/2.On November 5, total open interest increased by 389 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 85% less than average. However, the December contract lost 5,188 of open interest, and there were open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in December. We consider this to be bearish and the increased volume on the decline is also another bearish indicator.

The USDA reported dismal sales of 265.8 thousand metric tons which brings total commitments to 566 million bushels versus USDA projections for the entire season of 925 million bushels.

We like the bearish side of Chicago wheat, but are concerned about the large number of managed money shorts, which represent significant buying power if in fact the market generates an intermediate term buy signal. If clients are contemplating bearish positions, the exit point would be if December Chicago wheat makes a low above OIA’s key pivot point for November 6 of 5.43 1/4.With the USDA report coming up on Monday, we would advise a cautious stance with respect to the initiation of bearish positions prior to the report.

WTI crude oil:

December WTI crude oil advanced $1.49 on heavy volume of 840,911 contracts. Volume shrank somewhat from November 4 when December WTI lost 1.59 on volume of 867,239 contracts and total open interest increased by 7,317 contracts. On November 5, total open interest increased by 8,095 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 12,486 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase somewhat friendly. As this report is being compiled on November 6, December WTI is trading 58 cents lower and has made a daily low of 77.12, which is above yesterday’s low of 76.46 and the contract low of 75.84 made on November 4. Stand aside.

Natural gas: On November 5, December natural gas generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on November 3.

December natural gas advanced 6.5 cents on heavy volume of 465,597 contracts. Volume increased from November 4 when December natural gas advanced 8.9 cents on volume of 448,259 contracts and total open interest declined by 3,475 contracts. On November 5, total open interest increased by 8,763 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average, but the December contract lost 3,479 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).

Remarkably, December natural gas has advanced every day since October 28, and as this report is being compiled on November 6, December natural gas is trading 17.2 cents higher after making a low of 4.111 after the release of the EIA report at 10:30 a.m. EST.The price and open interest action has been very bullish during the advance, and we continue to counsel clients to remain on the sidelines until after natural gas has had a decent size correction, at least 20 cents from the high. Keep in mind that natural gas is a weather driven market and if temperatures begin to warm, the market will fall. With the large increase of open interest on the advance, sellers may run for the exit at the same time.

The Energy Information Administration announced that working gas in storage was 3,571 Bcf as of Friday, October 31, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 91 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 238 Bcf less than last year at this time and 261 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,832 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 107 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 43 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 124 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,241 Bcf after a net injection of 40 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 30 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 8 Bcf. At 3,571 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.

Copper: On November 5, December copper generated a short-term sell signal, which reversed the short-term buy signal of October 29. December copper remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

Australian dollar:

The December Australian dollar lost 1.61 cents on heavy volume of 154,739 contracts.Volume was the strongest since October 15 when 190,220 contracts were traded and December Australian dollar closed at 87.33. On November 5, total open interest increased by a massive 7,051 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that new short sellers were aggressively entering the market in heavy numbers and driving prices to a new 4 1/2 year low (85.40).This is the lowest print since 82.47 made during July 2010. The Australian dollar has been on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.

Coffee: On November 5, December 2014 and March 2015 coffee generated an intermediate term sell signal after generating a short-term sell signal on October 23.

December coffee lost 1.95 cents on volume of 27,389 contracts. Volume fell from November 4 when December coffee advanced 2.35 cents on volume of 35,735 contracts and total open interest declined by 1,218 contracts. On November 5, total open interest declined by a massive 1978 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 185% above average.The December contract accounted for loss of 2632 of open interest.With 1st notice day on November 19, we expect to see total open interest declines for the next couple of weeks.

As this report is being compiled On November 6, December coffee has closed 2.50 cents lower to make a new closing low of 1.8375, which is the lowest since 1.8230 made on September 25. Yesterday, the July 2015-March 2016 spread lost 20 ticks. We recommend exiting the long July 2015-short March 2016 spread upon penetration of the October 7 low of 3.10 cents premium to March 2016.