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In tomorrow’s report, we will provide an update on the highlights of today’s USDA report.
Soybeans:
January soybeans advanced 8.75 cents on very light volume of 179,147 contracts. Volume was significantly below that of November 6 when January soybeans advanced 8.75 cents on volume of 226,335 contracts and total open interest increased by 2,556 contracts.Additionally, volume was the lowest since September 26 when 172,620 contracts were traded and January soybeans closed at 9.18 3/4. On November 7, total open interest declined by 1,747 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average. The November contract accounted for loss of 1483 of open interest, March 2015 -713, May 2015-368. As this report is being compiled after the release of USDA report, January soybeans are trading 11.50 lower after making a high at 10.58, which is below the October 30 high of 10.59 1/4. January soybeans remain on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
Soybean meal:
December soybean meal lost $1.30 on volume of 93,705 contracts. Total open interest declined by 677 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 4,170 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on November 10 after the release of USDA report, December soybean meal is trading 5.20 lower after making a high of 398.60, which is slightly above the high of November 6 of 398.00.December soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.
Corn:
December corn lost 3.75 cents on volume of 372,238 contracts. Volume increased substantially and was the highest since October 29 when December corn advanced 10.75 cents on volume of 381,450 contracts and total open interest increased by 4,886 contracts. On November 7, total open interest declined by 3392 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 50% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 26,724 of open interest. As this report is being compiled after the release of USDA report on November 10, December corn is trading 5.75 cents higher and has made a daily high of 3.78 3/4, which is the highest print since 3.81 made on October 30. December corn remains on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.
Chicago wheat:
December Chicago wheat lost 5.75 cents on heavy volume of 121,148 contracts.Remarkably, volume was the strongest since August 22 when 133,299 contracts are traded and December Chicago wheat closed at 5.62 1/4. On November 7, total open interest declined by 124 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 7,754 of open interest, which means there were large open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in December. We consider the minor decline of open interest to be bearish. As this report is being compiled on November 10, after the release of USDA report, December Chicago wheat is trading 1.75 cents higher and has made a daily low of 5.11 1/4, which is above Friday’s low of 5.11. December Chicago wheat remains on a short-term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal.
Kansas City wheat: On November 7, December Kansas City wheat generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.
WTI crude oil:
December WTI crude oil advanced 74 cents on volume of 623,985 contracts. Total open interest declined by 5,656 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% below average. The December contract accounted for loss of 14,844 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on November 10, December WTI is trading 86 cents lower and has made a low of 77.31, which takes out Friday’s low of 77.47. Stand aside.
Heating oil:
December heating oil advanced 4.08 cents on volume of 193,457 contracts. Total open interest increased by 4,781 contracts, which relative to volume is average. However, the December contract lost 5,968 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish).As this report is being compiled on November 10, December heating oil is trading 2.09 cents lower on the day. December heating oil remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. In the Weekend Wrap, we discussed a long December short April futures spread. However, this should not be initiated until December heating oil generates a short-term buy signal.
Natural gas:
December natural gas advanced 8 ticks on heavy volume of 532,277 contracts.Volume was the strongest since November 6 when December natural gas advanced 21 cents on volume of 646,234 contracts and total open interest increased by a massive 30,084 contracts. On November 7, total open interest increased by only 479 contracts, which is minuscule and dramatically below average.The December contract accounted for loss of 14,844 of open interest. There were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in the December contract. As this report is being compiled on November 10, December natural gas is trading 12.3 cents lower and has made a daily low of 4.288, which is above Friday’s low of 4.282.In the evening session, December natural gas made a high of 4.544, and the market has been drifting lower ever since. We continue to recommend a stand aside posture because we think a larger correction is in the offing.
Gold:
December gold advanced $27.20 on very heavy volume of 328,098 contracts.Volume was slightly higher than October 31 when December gold lost $27.00 on volume of 325,719 contracts and total open interest declined by 1,531 contracts.On November 7, total open interest increased by a massive 16,366 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 100% above average meaning that aggressive new longs were entering the market and driving prices higher (1179.00). As this report is being compiled on November 10, December gold is trading 10.80 lower and has made a daily low 1155.70, which is above Friday’s low of 1130.40.Please review the November 9 Weekend Wrap for our thoughts on gold.
Coffee:
December coffee lost 1.35 cents on heavy volume of 38,348 contracts. Volume was the strongest since October 30 when December coffee lost 2.00 cents on volume of 42,062 contracts and total open interest declined by 934 contracts. On November 7, total open interest declined by 1266 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% above average. The December contract lost 4,916 of open interest. The July 2015-March 2016 spread has penetrated the exit point of 3.10 cents premium to March 2016 and this spread should be liquidated if this has not been done already. At this juncture, clients should be on the sidelines.
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