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Soybeans:

November soybeans advanced 22.75 cents on fairly heavy volume of 331,835 contracts. Volume fell from October 10 when November soybeans lost 19.50 cents on volume of 375,878 contracts and total open interest increased by a massive 18,595 contracts. On October 13, total open interest increased by 7,411 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average.The November contract lost 7,406 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bullish). Yesterday, November soybeans made a high of 9.51, and as this report is being compiled on October 14, November soybeans made a high of 9.70 1/2, which is the highest print since September 19 (9.72). In order for November soybeans to generate a short-term buy signal, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point of $9.70 1/8. Stand aside.

Soybean oil:

December soybean oil advanced 60 points on volume of 84,101 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2646 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 30% above average, meaning that new longs were aggressively entering the market and driving prices higher (33.19). The October 2014 contract lost 439 of open interest, December 2014 -1541, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bullish). As this report is being compiled on October 14, December soybean oil is trading 45 points lower on the day. We continue to like the May 2015-December 2015 bull spread.

Corn:

December corn advanced 12.00 cents on light volume of 205,767 contracts. Volume was the lowest since October 8 when December corn advanced 2.75 cents on volume of 201,721 contracts and total open interest increased by 7,324 contracts. On October 13, total open interest increased again, this time by 4,906 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 5% below average, but a positive reading nonetheless. The July 2015 contract lost 207 of open interest.

Yesterday, the market was unable to take out the October 10 high of 3.48 1/2, however this has occurred on October 14 (3.57 1/2). The very low volume on yesterday’s advance was disappointing and indicates a reluctance to commit on the part of potential market participants. On October 9, December corn generated a short term buy signal, and remains on an intermediate term sell signal. Although corn is in a rally mode along with some of the other grains, it is difficult to get very bullish at this juncture due to the poor fundamentals of the market. December corn must close above OIA’s key pivot point of 3.48 7/8 and then make a daily low above the pivot point for the rally to continue.

Chicago wheat:

December Chicago wheat advanced 6.75 cents on light volume of 67,060 contracts. Volume fell dramatically from October 10 when December Chicago wheat advanced 5.25 cents on volume of 112,735 contracts and total open interest increased by 51 contracts. On October 13, total open interest declined just 5 contracts. The December 2014 contract lost 1,646 of open interest, March 2015 -1037. The minor decline of open interest was due to open interest increases in the forward months, which offset the loss in October and December contracts. In order for December Chicago wheat to generate a short-term buy signal, the low the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for October 14 of 5.11 1/4. Stand aside.

WTI crude oil:

November WTI crude oil lost 8 cents on volume of 624,468 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,329, which is minuscule and dramatically below average. The November contract accounted for loss of 12,015 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on October 14, November WTI is trading sharply lower, down $3.10 on heavy volume, and has taken out the previous low of 83.59 made on October 10 with another new low at 82.51. The crude oil market has been in free fall recently, and at some point will stabilize, but it is difficult to ascertain where the market may find support. There has been a considerable amount talk of Saudi Arabia producing surplus amounts of crude oil, and there are numerous ramifications regarding the motivation of the Saudis collapsing the market. Stand aside.

Natural gas:

November natural gas advanced 5.7 cents on volume of 262,354 contracts. Total open interest declined by 9,496 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% above average meaning that both longs and shorts were aggressive about liquidating positions on the rally.This is very negative open interest action relative to the price advance.As this report is being compiled on October 14, November natural gas is trading 9.2 cents lower and has made a new low for the move at 3.806, which is the lowest print since July 28 (3.786). On October 10, November natural gas generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.On October 14, the February 2015-May 2015 spread has narrowed by 3.7 cents, which is to be expected due to the current downtrend in natural gas prices.We would abandon the spread upon the penetration of the September 23 low of 26.9 cents premium to February 2015.

Yen: It is highly likely that a short-term buy signal will be generated in the December yen.

The December yen advanced 31 pips on volume of 128,327 contracts. Total open interest declined by 8,519 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 160% above average meaning that liquidation was very heavy on the advance. As this report is being compiled on October 14, the December yen is trading 33 pips higher and has made a daily high of .9378, which matches yesterday’s high. We will be looking for a spot to enter bearish positions, but think the rally has further to go due to the short-term buy signal and large number of speculative shorts.

Cocoa:

December cocoa lost $98.00 on volume of 24,480 contracts. Volume shrank considerably from October 10 when December cocoa advanced 100.00 on volume of 32,349 contracts and total open interest increased by 951. On October 13, total open interest declined by a massive 1,449 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average meaning that liquidation was extremely heavy on the decline. The open interest increase on October 10 when prices were rising and the open interest decline on October 13 when prices fell, is positive for the market. On October 14, December coffee is made a low of 3,022, which is $3.00 above the September 11 low of 3019. However, the market has rallied smartly and on October 14, December cocoa has closed 43.00 higher.We continue to like the bull spread: buying March 2015 and selling December 2015.

Coffee:

December coffee lost 2.30 cents on volume of 16,582 contracts.Total open interest declined just 88 contracts. The December contract lost 1,054 of open interest, and the open interest increases in the forward months is bearish in our view. In other words, there was sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset much of the decline in the December contract as prices fell indicating that shorts were in control. As this report is being compiled, December coffee has closed at $2.2190, up 3.80 cents.We continue to like the bull spread: long July 2015 and short March 2016. On October 14, the spread has widened 20 points.